Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED WINGS    66 28 10 319 231  0.055 53.338    1  1.465    1  0.367    1  0.353    1 0.5494  0.948  0.379  0.327  0.000
AVALANCHE    55 39  8 263 224  0.076 53.403    2  1.183    2  0.191    5  0.186    2 0.5264  0.754  0.002  0.371  0.000
SHARKS       51 34  8 279 227  0.030 46.978    3  1.156    3  0.179    3  0.191    3 0.5250  1.059  0.346  0.035  0.000
BLUES        48 36  7 248 204  0.054 46.832    4  1.100    4  0.154    2  0.197    4 0.5218  0.832  0.095  0.299  0.000
MAPLE LEAFS  53 38 10 289 251 -0.013 49.425    5  1.001    5  0.116    7  0.127    6 0.5162  0.966  0.173  0.081  0.000
CANUCKS      44 36  7 266 228  0.057 44.872    6  0.999    6  0.114    4  0.189    5 0.5168  1.130  0.432 -0.053  0.000
BLACKHAWKS   41 32 13 216 216  0.036 43.890    7  0.984    7  0.113   15  0.036    7 0.5156  0.906  0.014  0.058  0.000
KINGS        43 35 10 225 204  0.038 44.879    8  0.962    8  0.101    9  0.107    8 0.5146  0.828  0.001  0.213  0.000
OILERS       38 31 12 205 181  0.022 40.751    9  0.935    9  0.088    8  0.118    9 0.5123  0.781 -0.038  0.274  0.000
COYOTES      41 37  8 233 221  0.036 43.825   10  0.883   10  0.066   12  0.072   11 0.5086  0.958  0.110  0.035  0.000
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ISLANDERS    45 36  8 260 242 -0.025 43.234   11  0.874   11  0.062   14  0.039   10 0.5097  1.092  0.234 -0.157  0.000
SENATORS     45 38  9 263 216 -0.014 44.911   12  0.860   12  0.049    6  0.173   13 0.5075  0.918  0.165  0.181  0.000
FLYERS       42 34 10 231 201 -0.030 41.530   13  0.846   13  0.047   10  0.079   14 0.5074  0.857  0.004  0.154  0.000
STARS        36 33 13 215 213  0.019 41.324   14  0.838   14  0.044   16  0.020   16 0.5061  0.953  0.051 -0.011  0.000
BRUINS       44 37  6 250 219 -0.044 41.571   15  0.825   16  0.035   11  0.073   17 0.5052  0.962  0.115  0.031  0.000
DEVILS       43 36  9 216 196 -0.037 42.317   16  0.822   17  0.035   13  0.046   15 0.5065  0.698 -0.195  0.286  0.000
HURRICANES   48 41 16 264 260 -0.009 51.832   17  0.814   15  0.039   18 -0.003   12 0.5075  0.809 -0.129  0.124  0.000
CANADIENS    41 40 12 233 244 -0.038 44.870   18  0.741   18 -0.019   19 -0.051   18 0.4974  0.904 -0.074 -0.027  0.000
SABRES       35 35 11 212 198 -0.031 39.209   19  0.728   19 -0.029   17  0.011   19 0.4967  0.892 -0.026  0.048  0.000
CAPITALS     36 35 11 228 240 -0.059 38.964   20  0.711   20 -0.036   22 -0.089   20 0.4953  1.113  0.132 -0.310  0.000
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
FLAMES       31 38 12 200 220  0.020 41.039   21  0.683   21 -0.054   20 -0.077   21 0.4912  0.954 -0.045 -0.109  0.000
RANGERS      36 42  4 227 258 -0.042 39.703   22  0.596   22 -0.094   25 -0.188   22 0.4871  1.200  0.142 -0.518  0.000
PREDATORS    28 41 13 196 230  0.029 41.931   23  0.556   23 -0.113   23 -0.128   23 0.4835  0.959 -0.089 -0.166  0.000
DUCKS        29 44  8 173 194  0.015 40.885   24  0.482   24 -0.146   21 -0.081   24 0.4791  0.664 -0.355  0.193  0.000
WILD         26 44 12 195 238  0.030 41.978   25  0.438   25 -0.163   24 -0.141   25 0.4764  0.964 -0.097 -0.185  0.000
PENGUINS     28 45  8 197 246 -0.041 39.299   26  0.351   26 -0.208   27 -0.243   26 0.4704  1.004 -0.152 -0.333  0.000
LIGHTNING    27 44 11 178 219 -0.055 39.273   27  0.343   27 -0.214   26 -0.208   27 0.4696  0.771 -0.375 -0.042  0.000
BLUE JACKETS 22 52  7 161 252  0.032 41.826   28  0.217   28 -0.299   29 -0.343   28 0.4587  0.871 -0.403 -0.282  0.000
PANTHERS     22 49 10 178 245 -0.059 38.883   29  0.179   29 -0.322   28 -0.322   29 0.4542  0.929 -0.317 -0.326  0.000
THRASHERS    18 52 11 185 287 -0.051 39.261   30  0.000   30 -0.398   30 -0.448   30 0.4443  1.128 -0.209 -0.688  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SHARKS       51 34  8 279 227  0.030 46.978    3  1.156    3  0.179    3  0.191    3 0.5250  1.059  0.346  0.035  0.000
KINGS        43 35 10 225 204  0.038 44.879    8  0.962    8  0.101    9  0.107    8 0.5146  0.828  0.001  0.213  0.000
COYOTES      41 37  8 233 221  0.036 43.825   10  0.883   10  0.066   12  0.072   11 0.5086  0.958  0.110  0.035  0.000
STARS        36 33 13 215 213  0.019 41.324   14  0.838   14  0.044   16  0.020   16 0.5061  0.953  0.051 -0.011  0.000
DUCKS        29 44  8 173 194  0.015 40.885   24  0.482   24 -0.146   21 -0.081   24 0.4791  0.664 -0.355  0.193  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
AVALANCHE    55 39  8 263 224  0.076 53.403    2  1.183    2  0.191    5  0.186    2 0.5264  0.754  0.002  0.371  0.000
CANUCKS      44 36  7 266 228  0.057 44.872    6  0.999    6  0.114    4  0.189    5 0.5168  1.130  0.432 -0.053  0.000
OILERS       38 31 12 205 181  0.022 40.751    9  0.935    9  0.088    8  0.118    9 0.5123  0.781 -0.038  0.274  0.000
FLAMES       31 38 12 200 220  0.020 41.039   21  0.683   21 -0.054   20 -0.077   21 0.4912  0.954 -0.045 -0.109  0.000
WILD         26 44 12 195 238  0.030 41.978   25  0.438   25 -0.163   24 -0.141   25 0.4764  0.964 -0.097 -0.185  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED WINGS    66 28 10 319 231  0.055 53.338    1  1.465    1  0.367    1  0.353    1 0.5494  0.948  0.379  0.327  0.000
BLUES        48 36  7 248 204  0.054 46.832    4  1.100    4  0.154    2  0.197    4 0.5218  0.832  0.095  0.299  0.000
BLACKHAWKS   41 32 13 216 216  0.036 43.890    7  0.984    7  0.113   15  0.036    7 0.5156  0.906  0.014  0.058  0.000
PREDATORS    28 41 13 196 230  0.029 41.931   23  0.556   23 -0.113   23 -0.128   23 0.4835  0.959 -0.089 -0.166  0.000
BLUE JACKETS 22 52  7 161 252  0.032 41.826   28  0.217   28 -0.299   29 -0.343   28 0.4587  0.871 -0.403 -0.282  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MAPLE LEAFS  53 38 10 289 251 -0.013 49.425    5  1.001    5  0.116    7  0.127    6 0.5162  0.966  0.173  0.081  0.000
SENATORS     45 38  9 263 216 -0.014 44.911   12  0.860   12  0.049    6  0.173   13 0.5075  0.918  0.165  0.181  0.000
BRUINS       44 37  6 250 219 -0.044 41.571   15  0.825   16  0.035   11  0.073   17 0.5052  0.962  0.115  0.031  0.000
CANADIENS    41 40 12 233 244 -0.038 44.870   18  0.741   18 -0.019   19 -0.051   18 0.4974  0.904 -0.074 -0.027  0.000
SABRES       35 35 11 212 198 -0.031 39.209   19  0.728   19 -0.029   17  0.011   19 0.4967  0.892 -0.026  0.048  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ISLANDERS    45 36  8 260 242 -0.025 43.234   11  0.874   11  0.062   14  0.039   10 0.5097  1.092  0.234 -0.157  0.000
FLYERS       42 34 10 231 201 -0.030 41.530   13  0.846   13  0.047   10  0.079   14 0.5074  0.857  0.004  0.154  0.000
DEVILS       43 36  9 216 196 -0.037 42.317   16  0.822   17  0.035   13  0.046   15 0.5065  0.698 -0.195  0.286  0.000
RANGERS      36 42  4 227 258 -0.042 39.703   22  0.596   22 -0.094   25 -0.188   22 0.4871  1.200  0.142 -0.518  0.000
PENGUINS     28 45  8 197 246 -0.041 39.299   26  0.351   26 -0.208   27 -0.243   26 0.4704  1.004 -0.152 -0.333  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HURRICANES   48 41 16 264 260 -0.009 51.832   17  0.814   15  0.039   18 -0.003   12 0.5075  0.809 -0.129  0.124  0.000
CAPITALS     36 35 11 228 240 -0.059 38.964   20  0.711   20 -0.036   22 -0.089   20 0.4953  1.113  0.132 -0.310  0.000
LIGHTNING    27 44 11 178 219 -0.055 39.273   27  0.343   27 -0.214   26 -0.208   27 0.4696  0.771 -0.375 -0.042  0.000
PANTHERS     22 49 10 178 245 -0.059 38.883   29  0.179   29 -0.322   28 -0.322   29 0.4542  0.929 -0.317 -0.326  0.000
THRASHERS    18 52 11 185 287 -0.051 39.261   30  0.000   30 -0.398   30 -0.448   30 0.4443  1.128 -0.209 -0.688  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 218 188  48 0.533    1  0.086
PACIFIC DIVISION   200 183  47 0.520    2  0.081
NORTHWEST DIVISION 194 188  51 0.507    3  0.072
CENTRAL DIVISION   205 189  50 0.518    4  0.028
ATLANTIC DIVISION  194 193  39 0.501    5 -0.066
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 151 221  59 0.419    6 -0.272

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.128 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 31 14:11:51 2007
games through: Thu Jun 13 2002

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