Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   14  3 539 341  0.288  9.836    1  1.514    1  0.719    1  0.684    1 0.6334  1.602  1.195  0.172  0.000
PITTSBURGH    14  5 455 306  0.234 10.697    2  1.342    2  0.559    3  0.502    2 0.6014  1.096  0.311  0.694  0.000
GREEN BAY     14  6 509 316  0.274 11.478    3  1.303    4  0.510    2  0.656    3 0.5954  1.103  0.474  0.838  0.000
NY JETS       13  6 431 365  0.302 11.355    4  1.298    3  0.532    5  0.310    4 0.5928  1.129  0.160  0.460  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  5 411 308  0.160  9.618    5  1.264    5  0.486    4  0.349    5 0.5885  1.068  0.125  0.574  0.000
ATLANTA       13  4 435 336  0.003  8.123    6  1.242    6  0.464    8  0.173    6 0.5868  1.335  0.292  0.054  0.000
CHICAGO       12  6 383 331  0.114  9.610    7  1.124    7  0.346    7  0.179    7 0.5647  1.073 -0.040  0.398  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  10  7 455 398  0.099  9.099    8  0.965    8  0.192   10  0.134   10 0.5284  1.497  0.486 -0.217  0.000
NY GIANTS     10  6 394 347 -0.017  7.784    9  0.939    9  0.182    9  0.141   11 0.5257  1.306  0.221  0.062  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7 451 405  0.012  8.530   10  0.903   10  0.142   11  0.102   13 0.5114  1.417  0.337 -0.132  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   11  6 420 348 -0.174  7.237   11  0.881   12  0.117   13  0.063    8 0.5370  1.358  0.214 -0.088  0.000
TAMPA BAY     10  6 341 318 -0.151  7.143   12  0.869   11  0.121   14  0.045    9 0.5310  1.179 -0.043  0.133  0.000
MIAMI          7  9 273 333  0.231  9.656   13  0.795   13  0.051   17 -0.062   12 0.5115  0.993 -0.375  0.251  0.000
KANSAS CITY   10  7 373 356 -0.216  7.263   14  0.762   14  0.013   25 -0.188   14 0.4892  1.153 -0.308 -0.067  0.000
SAN DIEGO      9  7 441 322 -0.162  6.730   15  0.755   15 -0.032    6  0.198   16 0.4843  1.314  0.288  0.108  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 353 419 -0.072  7.878   16  0.714   16 -0.040   24 -0.173   18 0.4714  1.352 -0.031 -0.316  0.000
DETROIT        6 10 362 369  0.172  9.118   17  0.638   17 -0.112   12  0.092   15 0.4849  1.366  0.254 -0.070  0.000
MINNESOTA      6 10 281 348  0.140  9.238   18  0.605   18 -0.120   21 -0.131   17 0.4831  1.028 -0.403  0.141  0.000
OAKLAND        8  8 410 371 -0.185  6.932   19  0.600   19 -0.132   15  0.020   20 0.4673  1.425  0.266 -0.226  0.000
WASHINGTON     6 10 302 377  0.045  8.575   20  0.563   20 -0.162   23 -0.170   23 0.4582  1.124 -0.326 -0.013  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS         6 10 394 436  0.019  8.367   21  0.535   21 -0.197   18 -0.075   24 0.4565  1.529  0.324 -0.474  0.000
HOUSTON        6 10 390 427  0.009  8.262   22  0.512   22 -0.213   16 -0.048   26 0.4484  1.465  0.256 -0.351  0.000
TENNESSEE      6 10 356 339 -0.006  8.065   23  0.507   23 -0.229   20 -0.092   27 0.4446  1.164 -0.198  0.015  0.000
CLEVELAND      5 11 271 332  0.109  9.012   24  0.494   24 -0.238   22 -0.155   19 0.4676  1.005 -0.453  0.144  0.000
SEATTLE        8 10 375 478 -0.292  7.683   25  0.481   25 -0.257   29 -0.394   21 0.4618  1.418 -0.157 -0.630  0.000
BUFFALO        4 12 283 425  0.193  9.721   26  0.424   26 -0.306   26 -0.233   22 0.4585  1.274 -0.196 -0.270  0.000
ST. LOUIS      7  9 289 328 -0.368  6.171   27  0.400   27 -0.340   28 -0.322   28 0.4437  0.995 -0.632 -0.011  0.000
CINCINNATI     4 12 322 395  0.159  9.294   28  0.391   28 -0.342   19 -0.084   25 0.4510  1.352  0.060 -0.227  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  6 10 305 346 -0.320  6.588   29  0.326   29 -0.414   27 -0.242   29 0.4352  1.081 -0.451 -0.034  0.000
DENVER         4 12 344 471 -0.174  7.515   30  0.204   30 -0.525   30 -0.409   31 0.3969  1.508 -0.041 -0.777  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA        5 11 289 434 -0.389  6.348   31  0.183   31 -0.539   31 -0.624   30 0.4064  1.289 -0.568 -0.680  0.000
CAROLINA       2 14 196 408 -0.165  8.098   32  0.000   32 -0.736   32 -0.638   32 0.3907  0.940 -1.011 -0.265  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KANSAS CITY   10  7 373 356 -0.216  7.263   14  0.762   14  0.013   25 -0.188   14 0.4892  1.153 -0.308 -0.067  0.000
SAN DIEGO      9  7 441 322 -0.162  6.730   15  0.755   15 -0.032    6  0.198   16 0.4843  1.314  0.288  0.108  0.000
OAKLAND        8  8 410 371 -0.185  6.932   19  0.600   19 -0.132   15  0.020   20 0.4673  1.425  0.266 -0.226  0.000
DENVER         4 12 344 471 -0.174  7.515   30  0.204   30 -0.525   30 -0.409   31 0.3969  1.508 -0.041 -0.777  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7 451 405  0.012  8.530   10  0.903   10  0.142   11  0.102   13 0.5114  1.417  0.337 -0.132  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 353 419 -0.072  7.878   16  0.714   16 -0.040   24 -0.173   18 0.4714  1.352 -0.031 -0.316  0.000
HOUSTON        6 10 390 427  0.009  8.262   22  0.512   22 -0.213   16 -0.048   26 0.4484  1.465  0.256 -0.351  0.000
TENNESSEE      6 10 356 339 -0.006  8.065   23  0.507   23 -0.229   20 -0.092   27 0.4446  1.164 -0.198  0.015  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    14  5 455 306  0.234 10.697    2  1.342    2  0.559    3  0.502    2 0.6014  1.096  0.311  0.694  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  5 411 308  0.160  9.618    5  1.264    5  0.486    4  0.349    5 0.5885  1.068  0.125  0.574  0.000
CLEVELAND      5 11 271 332  0.109  9.012   24  0.494   24 -0.238   22 -0.155   19 0.4676  1.005 -0.453  0.144  0.000
CINCINNATI     4 12 322 395  0.159  9.294   28  0.391   28 -0.342   19 -0.084   25 0.4510  1.352  0.060 -0.227  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   14  3 539 341  0.288  9.836    1  1.514    1  0.719    1  0.684    1 0.6334  1.602  1.195  0.172  0.000
NY JETS       13  6 431 365  0.302 11.355    4  1.298    3  0.532    5  0.310    4 0.5928  1.129  0.160  0.460  0.000
MIAMI          7  9 273 333  0.231  9.656   13  0.795   13  0.051   17 -0.062   12 0.5115  0.993 -0.375  0.251  0.000
BUFFALO        4 12 283 425  0.193  9.721   26  0.424   26 -0.306   26 -0.233   22 0.4585  1.274 -0.196 -0.270  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE        8 10 375 478 -0.292  7.683   25  0.481   25 -0.257   29 -0.394   21 0.4618  1.418 -0.157 -0.630  0.000
ST. LOUIS      7  9 289 328 -0.368  6.171   27  0.400   27 -0.340   28 -0.322   28 0.4437  0.995 -0.632 -0.011  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  6 10 305 346 -0.320  6.588   29  0.326   29 -0.414   27 -0.242   29 0.4352  1.081 -0.451 -0.034  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11 289 434 -0.389  6.348   31  0.183   31 -0.539   31 -0.624   30 0.4064  1.289 -0.568 -0.680  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA       13  4 435 336  0.003  8.123    6  1.242    6  0.464    8  0.173    6 0.5868  1.335  0.292  0.054  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   11  6 420 348 -0.174  7.237   11  0.881   12  0.117   13  0.063    8 0.5370  1.358  0.214 -0.088  0.000
TAMPA BAY     10  6 341 318 -0.151  7.143   12  0.869   11  0.121   14  0.045    9 0.5310  1.179 -0.043  0.133  0.000
CAROLINA       2 14 196 408 -0.165  8.098   32  0.000   32 -0.736   32 -0.638   32 0.3907  0.940 -1.011 -0.265  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     14  6 509 316  0.274 11.478    3  1.303    4  0.510    2  0.656    3 0.5954  1.103  0.474  0.838  0.000
CHICAGO       12  6 383 331  0.114  9.610    7  1.124    7  0.346    7  0.179    7 0.5647  1.073 -0.040  0.398  0.000
DETROIT        6 10 362 369  0.172  9.118   17  0.638   17 -0.112   12  0.092   15 0.4849  1.366  0.254 -0.070  0.000
MINNESOTA      6 10 281 348  0.140  9.238   18  0.605   18 -0.120   21 -0.131   17 0.4831  1.028 -0.403  0.141  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  10  7 455 398  0.099  9.099    8  0.965    8  0.192   10  0.134   10 0.5284  1.497  0.486 -0.217  0.000
NY GIANTS     10  6 394 347 -0.017  7.784    9  0.939    9  0.182    9  0.141   11 0.5257  1.306  0.221  0.062  0.000
WASHINGTON     6 10 302 377  0.045  8.575   20  0.563   20 -0.162   23 -0.170   23 0.4582  1.124 -0.326 -0.013  0.000
DALLAS         6 10 394 436  0.019  8.367   21  0.535   21 -0.197   18 -0.075   24 0.4565  1.529  0.324 -0.474  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC NORTH  38 32 0.543    1  0.293
AFC EAST   38 30 0.559    2  0.274
AFC NORTH  36 33 0.522    3  0.251
NFC EAST   32 33 0.492    4  0.038
AFC SOUTH  30 35 0.462    5 -0.057
NFC SOUTH  36 30 0.545    6 -0.130
AFC WEST   31 34 0.477    7 -0.141
NFC WEST   26 40 0.394    8 -0.662

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.141 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.020 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat May  7 09:53:58 2011
games through: Sun Feb  6 2011

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