Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   16  3 617 400  0.154  9.659    1  1.786    2  0.769    2  0.527    2 0.6102  1.637  1.141 -0.088  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  16  3 483 358  0.100  9.560    2  1.773    1  0.778    9  0.321    1 0.6155  1.304  0.448  0.194  0.000
SAN DIEGO     13  4 468 337 -0.053  7.561    3  1.505    3  0.470    8  0.324    3 0.5763  1.453  0.660 -0.012  0.000
MINNESOTA     13  5 532 346  0.042  8.262    4  1.468    4  0.432    1  0.536    5 0.5547  1.402  0.798  0.274  0.000
DALLAS        12  6 398 298  0.099  9.041    5  1.406    5  0.381    7  0.357    4 0.5558  0.937  0.029  0.684  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  11  6 443 371  0.067  8.524    6  1.305    6  0.311   12  0.132    7 0.5487  1.470  0.493 -0.228  0.000
NEW ENGLAND   10  7 441 318  0.247  9.448    7  1.303    7  0.310    5  0.412    8 0.5476  1.308  0.544  0.279  0.000
NY JETS       11  8 406 294  0.223 10.335    8  1.262    8  0.266    3  0.511    6 0.5533  0.925  0.170  0.851  0.000
ATLANTA        9  7 363 325  0.191  8.742    9  1.225    9  0.238   11  0.234    9 0.5300  1.242  0.278  0.191  0.000
GREEN BAY     11  6 506 348 -0.050  7.317   10  1.191   10  0.196    4  0.459   13 0.5219  1.513  0.884  0.034  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE     10  8 427 295  0.151  9.095   11  1.156   12  0.167    6  0.381   10 0.5267  1.051  0.186  0.577  0.000
CINCINNATI    10  7 319 315  0.014  8.471   12  1.145   11  0.192   19 -0.090   11 0.5229  0.992 -0.355  0.175  0.000
CAROLINA       8  8 315 308  0.228  9.164   13  1.101   14  0.149   10  0.311   15 0.5188  1.030  0.090  0.531  0.000
ARIZONA       11  7 440 415 -0.096  8.219   14  1.096   13  0.162   20 -0.091   14 0.5194  1.370  0.126 -0.309  0.000
PITTSBURGH     9  7 368 324 -0.059  7.400   15  0.985   18  0.047   15  0.058   17 0.5100  1.259  0.124 -0.009  0.000
HOUSTON        9  7 388 333 -0.064  7.302   16  0.984   17  0.047   13  0.125   12 0.5223  1.377  0.353 -0.103  0.000
NY GIANTS      8  8 402 427  0.061  8.310   17  0.982   15  0.048   21 -0.118   18 0.5080  1.557  0.374 -0.610  0.000
MIAMI          7  9 360 390  0.221  9.271   18  0.979   16  0.048   16  0.009   19 0.5068  1.407  0.279 -0.261  0.000
TENNESSEE      8  8 354 402 -0.011  8.062   19  0.938   19  0.007   17 -0.088   16 0.5104  1.373  0.133 -0.310  0.000
DENVER         8  8 326 324 -0.023  7.740   20  0.897   20 -0.038   22 -0.122   20 0.5034  1.141 -0.207 -0.037  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN FRANCISCO  8  8 330 281 -0.136  6.814   21  0.800   21 -0.143   14  0.080   21 0.4800  0.950 -0.233  0.393  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 258 326  0.104  8.800   22  0.789   22 -0.149   18 -0.089   23 0.4751  0.914 -0.442  0.265  0.000
CHICAGO        7  9 327 375 -0.090  7.801   23  0.780   23 -0.159   23 -0.220   24 0.4617  1.208 -0.221 -0.219  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   7  9 290 380 -0.148  7.605   24  0.770   24 -0.171   26 -0.371   22 0.4788  1.186 -0.400 -0.343  0.000
OAKLAND        5 11 197 379 -0.077  8.190   25  0.584   25 -0.369   30 -0.547   25 0.4429  0.867 -0.951 -0.144  0.000
CLEVELAND      5 11 245 375 -0.132  7.756   26  0.540   26 -0.429   27 -0.389   26 0.4322  1.030 -0.610 -0.168  0.000
TAMPA BAY      3 13 244 400  0.187  9.524   27  0.524   27 -0.441   25 -0.275   27 0.4186  1.046 -0.477 -0.073  0.000
SEATTLE        5 11 280 390 -0.284  7.121   28  0.431   28 -0.538   29 -0.540   28 0.4186  1.154 -0.610 -0.471  0.000
KANSAS CITY    4 12 294 424 -0.167  7.460   29  0.384   29 -0.585   28 -0.408   29 0.4175  1.342 -0.228 -0.587  0.000
WASHINGTON     4 12 266 336 -0.126  7.679   30  0.377   30 -0.595   24 -0.259   30 0.4137  0.963 -0.557  0.039  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        2 14 262 494 -0.206  8.118   31  0.135   31 -0.867   31 -0.740   31 0.3659  1.328 -0.580 -0.900  0.000
ST. LOUIS      1 15 175 436 -0.227  7.555   32  0.000   32 -1.027   32 -0.859   32 0.3471  0.850 -1.282 -0.436  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO     13  4 468 337 -0.053  7.561    3  1.505    3  0.470    8  0.324    3 0.5763  1.453  0.660 -0.012  0.000
DENVER         8  8 326 324 -0.023  7.740   20  0.897   20 -0.038   22 -0.122   20 0.5034  1.141 -0.207 -0.037  0.000
OAKLAND        5 11 197 379 -0.077  8.190   25  0.584   25 -0.369   30 -0.547   25 0.4429  0.867 -0.951 -0.144  0.000
KANSAS CITY    4 12 294 424 -0.167  7.460   29  0.384   29 -0.585   28 -0.408   29 0.4175  1.342 -0.228 -0.587  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  16  3 483 358  0.100  9.560    2  1.773    1  0.778    9  0.321    1 0.6155  1.304  0.448  0.194  0.000
HOUSTON        9  7 388 333 -0.064  7.302   16  0.984   17  0.047   13  0.125   12 0.5223  1.377  0.353 -0.103  0.000
TENNESSEE      8  8 354 402 -0.011  8.062   19  0.938   19  0.007   17 -0.088   16 0.5104  1.373  0.133 -0.310  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   7  9 290 380 -0.148  7.605   24  0.770   24 -0.171   26 -0.371   22 0.4788  1.186 -0.400 -0.343  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE     10  8 427 295  0.151  9.095   11  1.156   12  0.167    6  0.381   10 0.5267  1.051  0.186  0.577  0.000
CINCINNATI    10  7 319 315  0.014  8.471   12  1.145   11  0.192   19 -0.090   11 0.5229  0.992 -0.355  0.175  0.000
PITTSBURGH     9  7 368 324 -0.059  7.400   15  0.985   18  0.047   15  0.058   17 0.5100  1.259  0.124 -0.009  0.000
CLEVELAND      5 11 245 375 -0.132  7.756   26  0.540   26 -0.429   27 -0.389   26 0.4322  1.030 -0.610 -0.168  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   10  7 441 318  0.247  9.448    7  1.303    7  0.310    5  0.412    8 0.5476  1.308  0.544  0.279  0.000
NY JETS       11  8 406 294  0.223 10.335    8  1.262    8  0.266    3  0.511    6 0.5533  0.925  0.170  0.851  0.000
MIAMI          7  9 360 390  0.221  9.271   18  0.979   16  0.048   16  0.009   19 0.5068  1.407  0.279 -0.261  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 258 326  0.104  8.800   22  0.789   22 -0.149   18 -0.089   23 0.4751  0.914 -0.442  0.265  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA       11  7 440 415 -0.096  8.219   14  1.096   13  0.162   20 -0.091   14 0.5194  1.370  0.126 -0.309  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  8  8 330 281 -0.136  6.814   21  0.800   21 -0.143   14  0.080   21 0.4800  0.950 -0.233  0.393  0.000
SEATTLE        5 11 280 390 -0.284  7.121   28  0.431   28 -0.538   29 -0.540   28 0.4186  1.154 -0.610 -0.471  0.000
ST. LOUIS      1 15 175 436 -0.227  7.555   32  0.000   32 -1.027   32 -0.859   32 0.3471  0.850 -1.282 -0.436  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   16  3 617 400  0.154  9.659    1  1.786    2  0.769    2  0.527    2 0.6102  1.637  1.141 -0.088  0.000
ATLANTA        9  7 363 325  0.191  8.742    9  1.225    9  0.238   11  0.234    9 0.5300  1.242  0.278  0.191  0.000
CAROLINA       8  8 315 308  0.228  9.164   13  1.101   14  0.149   10  0.311   15 0.5188  1.030  0.090  0.531  0.000
TAMPA BAY      3 13 244 400  0.187  9.524   27  0.524   27 -0.441   25 -0.275   27 0.4186  1.046 -0.477 -0.073  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA     13  5 532 346  0.042  8.262    4  1.468    4  0.432    1  0.536    5 0.5547  1.402  0.798  0.274  0.000
GREEN BAY     11  6 506 348 -0.050  7.317   10  1.191   10  0.196    4  0.459   13 0.5219  1.513  0.884  0.034  0.000
CHICAGO        7  9 327 375 -0.090  7.801   23  0.780   23 -0.159   23 -0.220   24 0.4617  1.208 -0.221 -0.219  0.000
DETROIT        2 14 262 494 -0.206  8.118   31  0.135   31 -0.867   31 -0.740   31 0.3659  1.328 -0.580 -0.900  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        12  6 398 298  0.099  9.041    5  1.406    5  0.381    7  0.357    4 0.5558  0.937  0.029  0.684  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  11  6 443 371  0.067  8.524    6  1.305    6  0.311   12  0.132    7 0.5487  1.470  0.493 -0.228  0.000
NY GIANTS      8  8 402 427  0.061  8.310   17  0.982   15  0.048   21 -0.118   18 0.5080  1.557  0.374 -0.610  0.000
WASHINGTON     4 12 266 336 -0.126  7.679   30  0.377   30 -0.595   24 -0.259   30 0.4137  0.963 -0.557  0.039  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   34 34 0.500    1  0.328
NFC SOUTH  36 31 0.537    2  0.225
NFC EAST   35 32 0.522    3  0.088
AFC NORTH  34 33 0.507    4 -0.001
NFC NORTH  33 34 0.493    5 -0.004
AFC SOUTH  40 27 0.597    6 -0.017
AFC WEST   30 35 0.462    7 -0.278
NFC WEST   25 41 0.379    8 -0.467

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.180 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Apr  8 19:17:54 2010
games through: Sun Feb  7 2010

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