Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    15  4  0 432 284  0.238 10.460    1  1.689    1  0.675    2  0.521    1 0.6197  0.996  0.221  0.821  0.000
TENNESSEE     13  4  0 385 247  0.117  8.594    2  1.537    2  0.519    5  0.305    3 0.5863  0.941 -0.059  0.669  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  6  0 439 286  0.254 10.378    3  1.502    3  0.472    1  0.540    2 0.5944  1.110  0.375  0.705  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  12  5  0 394 321  0.188  9.198    4  1.484    4  0.458    4  0.365    5 0.5756  1.182  0.290  0.440  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS   12  5  0 438 317  0.143  8.768    5  1.457    5  0.432    6  0.294    4 0.5802  1.330  0.416  0.173  0.000
CAROLINA      12  5  0 427 362  0.049  8.466    6  1.396    6  0.385   11  0.132    6 0.5551  1.243  0.137  0.128  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  11  7  1 490 346  0.174 10.029    7  1.265    8  0.257    3  0.447    7 0.5550  1.265  0.481  0.413  0.000
ATLANTA       11  6  0 415 355  0.021  8.349    8  1.244    7  0.258   12  0.120   11 0.5304  1.202  0.071  0.168  0.000
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 393 359  0.144  9.216    9  1.217    9  0.238   10  0.160   13 0.5256  1.210  0.122  0.198  0.000
NEW ENGLAND   11  5  0 410 309 -0.132  6.774   10  1.202   10  0.218    7  0.240    8 0.5470  1.278  0.291  0.189  0.000
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA       12  8  0 545 515 -0.004  9.726   11  1.152   11  0.181   13  0.085   10 0.5345  1.633  0.654 -0.483  0.000
MIAMI         11  6  0 354 344 -0.140  7.502   12  1.135   12  0.173   19 -0.062    9 0.5347  1.104 -0.235  0.110  0.000
CHICAGO        9  7  0 375 350  0.066  8.210   13  1.104   13  0.146   15  0.034   15 0.5058  1.278  0.084 -0.017  0.000
DALLAS         9  7  0 362 365  0.082  8.362   14  1.099   14  0.140   16  0.020   12 0.5293  1.381  0.211 -0.172  0.000
TAMPA BAY      9  7  0 361 323 -0.024  7.636   15  1.025   15  0.067   18 -0.004   19 0.5014  1.142 -0.129  0.122  0.000
HOUSTON        8  8  0 366 394  0.074  8.437   16  0.999   16  0.045   17  0.013   14 0.5087  1.490  0.363 -0.337  0.000
WASHINGTON     8  8  0 265 296  0.011  8.192   17  0.960   17  0.003   21 -0.114   17 0.5037  0.849 -0.577  0.350  0.000
SAN DIEGO      9  9  0 486 399  0.010  8.673   18  0.933   18 -0.022    8  0.199   16 0.5038  1.455  0.498 -0.100  0.000
N.Y. JETS      9  7  0 405 356 -0.214  6.579   19  0.907   19 -0.034   20 -0.099   18 0.5015  1.427  0.159 -0.358  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    8  8  0 463 393 -0.030  7.549   20  0.899   20 -0.040    9  0.164   20 0.4841  1.604  0.687 -0.360  0.000
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER         8  8  0 370 448 -0.200  7.064   21  0.799   21 -0.118   28 -0.354   21 0.4771  1.533  0.060 -0.767  0.000
GREEN BAY      6 10  0 419 380  0.057  8.132   22  0.712   22 -0.200   14  0.085   27 0.4505  1.473  0.411 -0.240  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9  0 339 381 -0.199  7.021   23  0.683   23 -0.232   23 -0.182   22 0.4590  1.253 -0.164 -0.200  0.000
BUFFALO        7  9  0 336 342 -0.268  6.465   24  0.629   24 -0.277   26 -0.287   24 0.4565  1.173 -0.373 -0.201  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11  0 302 367  0.049  8.515   25  0.611   26 -0.288   22 -0.182   26 0.4512  1.201 -0.232 -0.131  0.000
CINCINNATI     4 11  1 204 364  0.086  9.158   26  0.607   25 -0.284   25 -0.284   23 0.4580  0.896 -0.697  0.129  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12  0 232 350  0.087  9.042   27  0.536   27 -0.368   29 -0.371   25 0.4520  0.977 -0.693 -0.048  0.000
OAKLAND        5 11  0 263 388 -0.124  7.699   28  0.522   28 -0.384   27 -0.333   28 0.4326  1.024 -0.601 -0.065  0.000
SEATTLE        4 12  0 294 392 -0.145  7.511   29  0.388   29 -0.522   24 -0.280   29 0.4104  1.159 -0.383 -0.177  0.000
ST. LOUIS      2 14  0 232 465 -0.149  7.821   30  0.157   30 -0.723   32 -0.611   30 0.3780  1.150 -0.726 -0.496  0.000
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 291 440 -0.158  7.553   31  0.123   31 -0.760   30 -0.434   31 0.3737  1.299 -0.355 -0.513  0.000
DETROIT        0 16  0 268 517  0.061  8.922   32  0.000   32 -0.892   31 -0.537   32 0.3405  1.376 -0.351 -0.723  0.000

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO      9  9  0 486 399  0.010  8.673   18  0.933   18 -0.022    8  0.199   16 0.5038  1.455  0.498 -0.100  0.000
DENVER         8  8  0 370 448 -0.200  7.064   21  0.799   21 -0.118   28 -0.354   21 0.4771  1.533  0.060 -0.767  0.000
OAKLAND        5 11  0 263 388 -0.124  7.699   28  0.522   28 -0.384   27 -0.333   28 0.4326  1.024 -0.601 -0.065  0.000
KANSAS CITY    2 14  0 291 440 -0.158  7.553   31  0.123   31 -0.760   30 -0.434   31 0.3737  1.299 -0.355 -0.513  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TENNESSEE     13  4  0 385 247  0.117  8.594    2  1.537    2  0.519    5  0.305    3 0.5863  0.941 -0.059  0.669  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  12  5  0 394 321  0.188  9.198    4  1.484    4  0.458    4  0.365    5 0.5756  1.182  0.290  0.440  0.000
HOUSTON        8  8  0 366 394  0.074  8.437   16  0.999   16  0.045   17  0.013   14 0.5087  1.490  0.363 -0.337  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11  0 302 367  0.049  8.515   25  0.611   26 -0.288   22 -0.182   26 0.4512  1.201 -0.232 -0.131  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    15  4  0 432 284  0.238 10.460    1  1.689    1  0.675    2  0.521    1 0.6197  0.996  0.221  0.821  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  6  0 439 286  0.254 10.378    3  1.502    3  0.472    1  0.540    2 0.5944  1.110  0.375  0.705  0.000
CINCINNATI     4 11  1 204 364  0.086  9.158   26  0.607   25 -0.284   25 -0.284   23 0.4580  0.896 -0.697  0.129  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12  0 232 350  0.087  9.042   27  0.536   27 -0.368   29 -0.371   25 0.4520  0.977 -0.693 -0.048  0.000

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   11  5  0 410 309 -0.132  6.774   10  1.202   10  0.218    7  0.240    8 0.5470  1.278  0.291  0.189  0.000
MIAMI         11  6  0 354 344 -0.140  7.502   12  1.135   12  0.173   19 -0.062    9 0.5347  1.104 -0.235  0.110  0.000
N.Y. JETS      9  7  0 405 356 -0.214  6.579   19  0.907   19 -0.034   20 -0.099   18 0.5015  1.427  0.159 -0.358  0.000
BUFFALO        7  9  0 336 342 -0.268  6.465   24  0.629   24 -0.277   26 -0.287   24 0.4565  1.173 -0.373 -0.201  0.000

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA       12  8  0 545 515 -0.004  9.726   11  1.152   11  0.181   13  0.085   10 0.5345  1.633  0.654 -0.483  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9  0 339 381 -0.199  7.021   23  0.683   23 -0.232   23 -0.182   22 0.4590  1.253 -0.164 -0.200  0.000
SEATTLE        4 12  0 294 392 -0.145  7.511   29  0.388   29 -0.522   24 -0.280   29 0.4104  1.159 -0.383 -0.177  0.000
ST. LOUIS      2 14  0 232 465 -0.149  7.821   30  0.157   30 -0.723   32 -0.611   30 0.3780  1.150 -0.726 -0.496  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA      12  5  0 427 362  0.049  8.466    6  1.396    6  0.385   11  0.132    6 0.5551  1.243  0.137  0.128  0.000
ATLANTA       11  6  0 415 355  0.021  8.349    8  1.244    7  0.258   12  0.120   11 0.5304  1.202  0.071  0.168  0.000
TAMPA BAY      9  7  0 361 323 -0.024  7.636   15  1.025   15  0.067   18 -0.004   19 0.5014  1.142 -0.129  0.122  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    8  8  0 463 393 -0.030  7.549   20  0.899   20 -0.040    9  0.164   20 0.4841  1.604  0.687 -0.360  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA     10  7  0 393 359  0.144  9.216    9  1.217    9  0.238   10  0.160   13 0.5256  1.210  0.122  0.198  0.000
CHICAGO        9  7  0 375 350  0.066  8.210   13  1.104   13  0.146   15  0.034   15 0.5058  1.278  0.084 -0.017  0.000
GREEN BAY      6 10  0 419 380  0.057  8.132   22  0.712   22 -0.200   14  0.085   27 0.4505  1.473  0.411 -0.240  0.000
DETROIT        0 16  0 268 517  0.061  8.922   32  0.000   32 -0.892   31 -0.537   32 0.3405  1.376 -0.351 -0.723  0.000

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. GIANTS   12  5  0 438 317  0.143  8.768    5  1.457    5  0.432    6  0.294    4 0.5802  1.330  0.416  0.173  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  11  7  1 490 346  0.174 10.029    7  1.265    8  0.257    3  0.447    7 0.5550  1.265  0.481  0.413  0.000
DALLAS         9  7  0 362 365  0.082  8.362   14  1.099   14  0.140   16  0.020   12 0.5293  1.381  0.211 -0.172  0.000
WASHINGTON     8  8  0 265 296  0.011  8.192   17  0.960   17  0.003   21 -0.114   17 0.5037  0.849 -0.577  0.350  0.000

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   40 27  1 0.596    1  0.295
AFC SOUTH  38 28  0 0.576    2  0.225
NFC SOUTH  40 26  0 0.606    3  0.225
AFC NORTH  36 33  1 0.521    4  0.128
NFC NORTH  25 40  0 0.385    5 -0.045
AFC EAST   38 27  0 0.585    6 -0.062
AFC WEST   24 42  0 0.364    7 -0.433
NFC WEST   25 43  0 0.368    8 -0.471

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.176 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Aug  2 11:36:34 2009
games through: Sun Feb  8 2009

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