Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  16  4 532 425  0.272 11.820    1  1.430    1  0.672    2  0.421    1 0.6228  1.480  0.826  0.016  0.000
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 480 312  0.227 10.723    2  1.266    3  0.511    1  0.473    2 0.6023  1.188  0.476  0.471  0.000
SAN DIEGO     14  3 513 327  0.010  7.953    3  1.255    2  0.511    4  0.317    3 0.5988  1.547  0.822 -0.187  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  4 359 216  0.058  8.437    4  1.182    4  0.434    3  0.362    4 0.5815  0.802 -0.082  0.807  0.000
CHICAGO       15  4 510 322 -0.090  8.332    5  1.159    5  0.409    6  0.224    5 0.5799  1.264  0.327  0.121  0.000
N.Y. JETS     10  7 332 332  0.107  9.254    6  0.930    6  0.206   12  0.065    6 0.5400  1.148  0.017  0.112  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  11  7 445 375 -0.007  8.839    7  0.878    8  0.155    7  0.152    8 0.5285  1.322  0.334 -0.029  0.000
TENNESSEE      8  8 324 400  0.262  9.877    8  0.872    7  0.160   14  0.043    7 0.5316  1.339  0.247 -0.161  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   11  7 454 385 -0.057  8.483    9  0.845    9  0.129   10  0.106   11 0.5215  1.451  0.468 -0.256  0.000
DENVER         9  7 319 305  0.016  8.039   10  0.807   10  0.095   16  0.013    9 0.5261  1.089 -0.108  0.133  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 371 274  0.184  8.935   11  0.789   11  0.079    5  0.308   10 0.5219  1.108  0.211  0.404  0.000
KANSAS CITY    9  8 339 338  0.007  8.680   12  0.741   12  0.053   18 -0.017   12 0.5116  1.141 -0.073  0.040  0.000
CINCINNATI     8  8 373 331  0.100  8.424   13  0.735   13  0.027    8  0.149   14 0.5067  1.365  0.389 -0.091  0.000
BUFFALO        7  9 300 311  0.219  9.363   14  0.716   14  0.012    9  0.141   13 0.5102  1.074  0.002  0.280  0.000
DALLAS         9  8 445 371 -0.030  8.176   15  0.714   15  0.006   13  0.050   16 0.4962  1.428  0.379 -0.280  0.000
PITTSBURGH     8  8 353 315  0.045  8.240   16  0.708   16  0.001   11  0.093   17 0.4944  1.301  0.245 -0.058  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS    8  9 375 385  0.073  9.077   17  0.694   17 -0.011   17 -0.016   18 0.4939  1.293  0.126 -0.157  0.000
SEATTLE       10  8 380 388 -0.206  7.788   18  0.659   19 -0.044   19 -0.081   15 0.4994  1.223 -0.032 -0.130  0.000
GREEN BAY      8  8 301 366 -0.087  7.867   19  0.656   18 -0.033   22 -0.139   19 0.4937  1.182 -0.144 -0.134  0.000
CAROLINA       8  8 270 305 -0.105  7.593   20  0.638   20 -0.052   20 -0.101   21 0.4789  0.950 -0.385  0.182  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI          6 10 260 283  0.147  9.056   21  0.573   21 -0.109   15  0.042   20 0.4819  0.859 -0.342  0.426  0.000
HOUSTON        6 10 267 366  0.092  9.007   22  0.558   22 -0.117   21 -0.133   23 0.4737  1.102 -0.238 -0.029  0.000
ST. LOUIS      8  8 367 381 -0.272  6.551   23  0.513   23 -0.166   23 -0.144   22 0.4769  1.428  0.185 -0.472  0.000
ATLANTA        7  9 292 328 -0.130  7.484   24  0.501   24 -0.174   25 -0.181   25 0.4544  1.083 -0.309 -0.053  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 298 412 -0.218  7.220   25  0.465   25 -0.210   29 -0.292   24 0.4659  1.257 -0.199 -0.384  0.000
MINNESOTA      6 10 282 327 -0.146  7.435   26  0.392   26 -0.285   27 -0.245   26 0.4490  1.049 -0.414 -0.076  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 307 376 -0.008  8.312   27  0.379   27 -0.288   24 -0.178   27 0.4362  1.204 -0.155 -0.202  0.000
TAMPA BAY      4 12 211 353 -0.039  8.383   28  0.256   28 -0.399   31 -0.385   30 0.4132  0.864 -0.763 -0.006  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 238 356 -0.024  8.480   29  0.254   29 -0.401   30 -0.357   29 0.4208  1.045 -0.531 -0.184  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11 314 389 -0.241  6.950   30  0.224   30 -0.434   28 -0.248   28 0.4233  1.279 -0.126 -0.371  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        3 13 305 398 -0.122  7.750   31  0.096   31 -0.554   26 -0.240   31 0.3954  1.310 -0.076 -0.404  0.000
OAKLAND        2 14 168 332 -0.114  8.210   32  0.000   32 -0.649   32 -0.517   32 0.3845  0.603 -1.158  0.123  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO     14  3 513 327  0.010  7.953    3  1.255    2  0.511    4  0.317    3 0.5988  1.547  0.822 -0.187  0.000
DENVER         9  7 319 305  0.016  8.039   10  0.807   10  0.095   16  0.013    9 0.5261  1.089 -0.108  0.133  0.000
KANSAS CITY    9  8 339 338  0.007  8.680   12  0.741   12  0.053   18 -0.017   12 0.5116  1.141 -0.073  0.040  0.000
OAKLAND        2 14 168 332 -0.114  8.210   32  0.000   32 -0.649   32 -0.517   32 0.3845  0.603 -1.158  0.123  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  16  4 532 425  0.272 11.820    1  1.430    1  0.672    2  0.421    1 0.6228  1.480  0.826  0.016  0.000
TENNESSEE      8  8 324 400  0.262  9.877    8  0.872    7  0.160   14  0.043    7 0.5316  1.339  0.247 -0.161  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   8  8 371 274  0.184  8.935   11  0.789   11  0.079    5  0.308   10 0.5219  1.108  0.211  0.404  0.000
HOUSTON        6 10 267 366  0.092  9.007   22  0.558   22 -0.117   21 -0.133   23 0.4737  1.102 -0.238 -0.029  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE     13  4 359 216  0.058  8.437    4  1.182    4  0.434    3  0.362    4 0.5815  0.802 -0.082  0.807  0.000
CINCINNATI     8  8 373 331  0.100  8.424   13  0.735   13  0.027    8  0.149   14 0.5067  1.365  0.389 -0.091  0.000
PITTSBURGH     8  8 353 315  0.045  8.240   16  0.708   16  0.001   11  0.093   17 0.4944  1.301  0.245 -0.058  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 238 356 -0.024  8.480   29  0.254   29 -0.401   30 -0.357   29 0.4208  1.045 -0.531 -0.184  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 480 312  0.227 10.723    2  1.266    3  0.511    1  0.473    2 0.6023  1.188  0.476  0.471  0.000
N.Y. JETS     10  7 332 332  0.107  9.254    6  0.930    6  0.206   12  0.065    6 0.5400  1.148  0.017  0.112  0.000
BUFFALO        7  9 300 311  0.219  9.363   14  0.716   14  0.012    9  0.141   13 0.5102  1.074  0.002  0.280  0.000
MIAMI          6 10 260 283  0.147  9.056   21  0.573   21 -0.109   15  0.042   20 0.4819  0.859 -0.342  0.426  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE       10  8 380 388 -0.206  7.788   18  0.659   19 -0.044   19 -0.081   15 0.4994  1.223 -0.032 -0.130  0.000
ST. LOUIS      8  8 367 381 -0.272  6.551   23  0.513   23 -0.166   23 -0.144   22 0.4769  1.428  0.185 -0.472  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 298 412 -0.218  7.220   25  0.465   25 -0.210   29 -0.292   24 0.4659  1.257 -0.199 -0.384  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11 314 389 -0.241  6.950   30  0.224   30 -0.434   28 -0.248   28 0.4233  1.279 -0.126 -0.371  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   11  7 454 385 -0.057  8.483    9  0.845    9  0.129   10  0.106   11 0.5215  1.451  0.468 -0.256  0.000
CAROLINA       8  8 270 305 -0.105  7.593   20  0.638   20 -0.052   20 -0.101   21 0.4789  0.950 -0.385  0.182  0.000
ATLANTA        7  9 292 328 -0.130  7.484   24  0.501   24 -0.174   25 -0.181   25 0.4544  1.083 -0.309 -0.053  0.000
TAMPA BAY      4 12 211 353 -0.039  8.383   28  0.256   28 -0.399   31 -0.385   30 0.4132  0.864 -0.763 -0.006  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       15  4 510 322 -0.090  8.332    5  1.159    5  0.409    6  0.224    5 0.5799  1.264  0.327  0.121  0.000
GREEN BAY      8  8 301 366 -0.087  7.867   19  0.656   18 -0.033   22 -0.139   19 0.4937  1.182 -0.144 -0.134  0.000
MINNESOTA      6 10 282 327 -0.146  7.435   26  0.392   26 -0.285   27 -0.245   26 0.4490  1.049 -0.414 -0.076  0.000
DETROIT        3 13 305 398 -0.122  7.750   31  0.096   31 -0.554   26 -0.240   31 0.3954  1.310 -0.076 -0.404  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  11  7 445 375 -0.007  8.839    7  0.878    8  0.155    7  0.152    8 0.5285  1.322  0.334 -0.029  0.000
DALLAS         9  8 445 371 -0.030  8.176   15  0.714   15  0.006   13  0.050   16 0.4962  1.428  0.379 -0.280  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS    8  9 375 385  0.073  9.077   17  0.694   17 -0.011   17 -0.016   18 0.4939  1.293  0.126 -0.157  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 307 376 -0.008  8.312   27  0.379   27 -0.288   24 -0.178   27 0.4362  1.204 -0.155 -0.202  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   37 31 0.544    1  0.282
AFC SOUTH  38 30 0.559    2  0.237
AFC NORTH  33 32 0.508    3  0.145
NFC EAST   33 35 0.485    4  0.078
AFC WEST   34 32 0.515    5 -0.014
NFC NORTH  32 35 0.478    6 -0.183
NFC SOUTH  30 36 0.455    7 -0.253
NFC WEST   30 36 0.455    8 -0.425

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.104 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:39:29 2007
games through: Sat Feb 10 2007

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