Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        14  4 439 305  0.214 10.095    1  1.341    1  0.627    3  0.474    1 0.6035  1.158  0.458  0.489  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  14  3 457 268  0.103  8.338    2  1.335    2  0.620    4  0.424    2 0.5968  1.178  0.434  0.414  0.000
PITTSBURGH    15  5 496 320  0.238 11.018    3  1.318    3  0.593    1  0.643    3 0.5955  1.152  0.620  0.666  0.000
SEATTLE       15  4 516 316  0.023  9.052    4  1.247    4  0.530    2  0.479    4 0.5835  1.218  0.541  0.418  0.000
JACKSONVILLE  12  5 364 297  0.009  8.457    5  1.093    5  0.383   11  0.076    5 0.5584  1.055 -0.066  0.218  0.000
WASHINGTON    11  7 386 323  0.176 10.127    6  1.000    6  0.292    9  0.268    6 0.5570  1.100  0.181  0.356  0.000
KANSAS CITY   10  6 403 325  0.156  8.770    7  0.997    7  0.282    6  0.337    9 0.5489  1.331  0.550  0.123  0.000
CINCINNATI    11  6 438 381  0.048  8.705    8  0.985    8  0.280   13  0.045   12 0.5446  1.565  0.597 -0.507  0.000
CAROLINA      13  6 457 314 -0.018  9.044    9  0.981   11  0.273    5  0.387    7 0.5530  1.220  0.451  0.323  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS   11  6 422 337  0.073  8.778   10  0.971    9  0.279   10  0.156    8 0.5528  1.303  0.331 -0.019  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   11  7 420 368  0.138  9.652   11  0.964   10  0.274    8  0.291   10 0.5471  1.322  0.492  0.090  0.000
SAN DIEGO      9  7 418 312  0.281  9.388   12  0.962   12  0.255    7  0.308   11 0.5453  1.367  0.571  0.045  0.000
CHICAGO       11  6 281 231 -0.102  7.828   13  0.895   13  0.183   12  0.053   13 0.5340  0.639 -0.534  0.639  0.000
DALLAS         9  7 325 308  0.115  8.764   14  0.883   14  0.175   14  0.030   14 0.5311  1.067 -0.097  0.158  0.000
TAMPA BAY     11  6 310 291 -0.164  7.638   15  0.863   15  0.151   18 -0.088   15 0.5302  0.958 -0.343  0.167  0.000
MIAMI          9  7 318 317 -0.083  7.769   16  0.775   16  0.070   16 -0.065   17 0.5070  1.157 -0.081 -0.048  0.000
MINNESOTA      9  7 306 344 -0.110  7.797   17  0.764   17  0.060   17 -0.076   16 0.5079  1.200 -0.037 -0.115  0.000
ATLANTA        8  8 351 341 -0.130  7.424   18  0.628   18 -0.098   19 -0.139   18 0.4881  1.341  0.087 -0.365  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   6 10 310 388  0.076  8.983   19  0.560   19 -0.151   21 -0.214   19 0.4711  1.232 -0.135 -0.294  0.000
BALTIMORE      6 10 265 299 -0.009  8.326   20  0.488   20 -0.229   15 -0.021   20 0.4620  0.940 -0.297  0.254  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND      6 10 232 301 -0.051  8.199   21  0.452   21 -0.252   22 -0.215   21 0.4574  0.812 -0.629  0.199  0.000
ST. LOUIS      6 10 363 429 -0.188  7.500   22  0.369   22 -0.339   25 -0.246   22 0.4479  1.518  0.235 -0.728  0.000
BUFFALO        5 11 271 367 -0.073  8.202   23  0.348   23 -0.356   24 -0.240   23 0.4357  1.093 -0.336 -0.144  0.000
OAKLAND        4 12 290 383  0.093  9.155   24  0.339   24 -0.375   26 -0.249   24 0.4346  1.208 -0.200 -0.298  0.000
DETROIT        5 11 254 345 -0.128  7.782   25  0.311   25 -0.406   27 -0.332   26 0.4317  1.077 -0.447 -0.216  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11 311 387 -0.123  7.879   26  0.304   26 -0.413   20 -0.198   25 0.4341  1.245 -0.100 -0.296  0.000
N.Y. JETS      4 12 240 355 -0.059  8.482   27  0.242   27 -0.476   28 -0.340   27 0.4225  0.975 -0.576 -0.105  0.000
GREEN BAY      4 12 298 344 -0.081  8.000   28  0.230   28 -0.488   23 -0.232   29 0.4181  1.213 -0.177 -0.287  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  4 12 239 428 -0.126  8.310   29  0.228   29 -0.490   31 -0.474   28 0.4199  1.143 -0.507 -0.440  0.000
TENNESSEE      4 12 299 421 -0.130  8.104   30  0.221   30 -0.514   29 -0.397   30 0.4137  1.314 -0.207 -0.587  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS    3 13 235 398 -0.160  7.810   31  0.121   31 -0.616   32 -0.509   31 0.3923  1.108 -0.586 -0.432  0.000
HOUSTON        2 14 260 431 -0.119  8.345   32  0.000   32 -0.746   30 -0.427   32 0.3790  1.224 -0.358 -0.497  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        14  4 439 305  0.214 10.095    1  1.341    1  0.627    3  0.474    1 0.6035  1.158  0.458  0.489  0.000
KANSAS CITY   10  6 403 325  0.156  8.770    7  0.997    7  0.282    6  0.337    9 0.5489  1.331  0.550  0.123  0.000
SAN DIEGO      9  7 418 312  0.281  9.388   12  0.962   12  0.255    7  0.308   11 0.5453  1.367  0.571  0.045  0.000
OAKLAND        4 12 290 383  0.093  9.155   24  0.339   24 -0.375   26 -0.249   24 0.4346  1.208 -0.200 -0.298  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  14  3 457 268  0.103  8.338    2  1.335    2  0.620    4  0.424    2 0.5968  1.178  0.434  0.414  0.000
JACKSONVILLE  12  5 364 297  0.009  8.457    5  1.093    5  0.383   11  0.076    5 0.5584  1.055 -0.066  0.218  0.000
TENNESSEE      4 12 299 421 -0.130  8.104   30  0.221   30 -0.514   29 -0.397   30 0.4137  1.314 -0.207 -0.587  0.000
HOUSTON        2 14 260 431 -0.119  8.345   32  0.000   32 -0.746   30 -0.427   32 0.3790  1.224 -0.358 -0.497  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    15  5 496 320  0.238 11.018    3  1.318    3  0.593    1  0.643    3 0.5955  1.152  0.620  0.666  0.000
CINCINNATI    11  6 438 381  0.048  8.705    8  0.985    8  0.280   13  0.045   12 0.5446  1.565  0.597 -0.507  0.000
BALTIMORE      6 10 265 299 -0.009  8.326   20  0.488   20 -0.229   15 -0.021   20 0.4620  0.940 -0.297  0.254  0.000
CLEVELAND      6 10 232 301 -0.051  8.199   21  0.452   21 -0.252   22 -0.215   21 0.4574  0.812 -0.629  0.199  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   11  7 420 368  0.138  9.652   11  0.964   10  0.274    8  0.291   10 0.5471  1.322  0.492  0.090  0.000
MIAMI          9  7 318 317 -0.083  7.769   16  0.775   16  0.070   16 -0.065   17 0.5070  1.157 -0.081 -0.048  0.000
BUFFALO        5 11 271 367 -0.073  8.202   23  0.348   23 -0.356   24 -0.240   23 0.4357  1.093 -0.336 -0.144  0.000
N.Y. JETS      4 12 240 355 -0.059  8.482   27  0.242   27 -0.476   28 -0.340   27 0.4225  0.975 -0.576 -0.105  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE       15  4 516 316  0.023  9.052    4  1.247    4  0.530    2  0.479    4 0.5835  1.218  0.541  0.418  0.000
ST. LOUIS      6 10 363 429 -0.188  7.500   22  0.369   22 -0.339   25 -0.246   22 0.4479  1.518  0.235 -0.728  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11 311 387 -0.123  7.879   26  0.304   26 -0.413   20 -0.198   25 0.4341  1.245 -0.100 -0.296  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  4 12 239 428 -0.126  8.310   29  0.228   29 -0.490   31 -0.474   28 0.4199  1.143 -0.507 -0.440  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA      13  6 457 314 -0.018  9.044    9  0.981   11  0.273    5  0.387    7 0.5530  1.220  0.451  0.323  0.000
TAMPA BAY     11  6 310 291 -0.164  7.638   15  0.863   15  0.151   18 -0.088   15 0.5302  0.958 -0.343  0.167  0.000
ATLANTA        8  8 351 341 -0.130  7.424   18  0.628   18 -0.098   19 -0.139   18 0.4881  1.341  0.087 -0.365  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    3 13 235 398 -0.160  7.810   31  0.121   31 -0.616   32 -0.509   31 0.3923  1.108 -0.586 -0.432  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       11  6 281 231 -0.102  7.828   13  0.895   13  0.183   12  0.053   13 0.5340  0.639 -0.534  0.639  0.000
MINNESOTA      9  7 306 344 -0.110  7.797   17  0.764   17  0.060   17 -0.076   16 0.5079  1.200 -0.037 -0.115  0.000
DETROIT        5 11 254 345 -0.128  7.782   25  0.311   25 -0.406   27 -0.332   26 0.4317  1.077 -0.447 -0.216  0.000
GREEN BAY      4 12 298 344 -0.081  8.000   28  0.230   28 -0.488   23 -0.232   29 0.4181  1.213 -0.177 -0.287  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON    11  7 386 323  0.176 10.127    6  1.000    6  0.292    9  0.268    6 0.5570  1.100  0.181  0.356  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS   11  6 422 337  0.073  8.778   10  0.971    9  0.279   10  0.156    8 0.5528  1.303  0.331 -0.019  0.000
DALLAS         9  7 325 308  0.115  8.764   14  0.883   14  0.175   14  0.030   14 0.5311  1.067 -0.097  0.158  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   6 10 310 388  0.076  8.983   19  0.560   19 -0.151   21 -0.214   19 0.4711  1.232 -0.135 -0.294  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC WEST   37 29 0.561    1  0.395
NFC EAST   37 30 0.552    2  0.177
AFC NORTH  38 31 0.551    3  0.150
AFC SOUTH  32 34 0.485    4 -0.097
NFC SOUTH  35 33 0.515    5 -0.124
AFC EAST   29 37 0.439    6 -0.198
NFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    7 -0.241
NFC WEST   30 37 0.448    8 -0.273

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.255 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:39:29 2007
games through: Sun Feb  5 2006

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