Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 522 311  0.352 11.340    1  1.698    1  0.921    1  0.734    1 0.6571  1.212  0.731  0.737  0.000
PITTSBURGH    16  2 419 309  0.238 10.417    2  1.596    2  0.851    2  0.441    2 0.6520  1.202  0.425  0.457  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  13  5 574 395  0.208  9.944    3  1.274    3  0.487    3  0.436    4 0.5844  1.626  1.025 -0.154  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  15  4 461 308 -0.083  8.751    4  1.248    4  0.457    7  0.239    3 0.5875  1.118  0.117  0.362  0.000
SAN DIEGO     12  5 463 333  0.121  9.122    5  1.191    5  0.406    5  0.387    6 0.5645  1.322  0.531  0.243  0.000
N.Y. JETS     11  7 370 298  0.304 10.786    6  1.156    6  0.366    6  0.309    5 0.5672  0.937 -0.027  0.645  0.000
BALTIMORE      9  7 317 268  0.266  9.550    7  1.046    7  0.252    9  0.197    7 0.5527  0.894 -0.186  0.580  0.000
DENVER        10  7 405 353  0.132  9.409    8  1.004    8  0.208    8  0.198    9 0.5297  1.198  0.176  0.219  0.000
ATLANTA       12  6 397 381 -0.187  8.089    9  0.964    9  0.179   18 -0.103   12 0.5265  1.211 -0.106 -0.099  0.000
BUFFALO        9  7 395 284  0.175  8.744   10  0.947   11  0.167    4  0.389    8 0.5382  1.250  0.436  0.342  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
JACKSONVILLE   9  7 261 280  0.102  8.967   11  0.942   10  0.177   15 -0.046   11 0.5267  0.692 -0.637  0.546  0.000
CINCINNATI     8  8 374 372  0.197  9.336   12  0.877   12  0.114   11  0.182   10 0.5282  1.472  0.538 -0.174  0.000
GREEN BAY     10  7 441 411 -0.195  7.493   13  0.772   13  0.004   14 -0.045   13 0.5054  1.546  0.422 -0.511  0.000
KANSAS CITY    7  9 483 435  0.168  9.154   14  0.744   14 -0.016   10  0.191   14 0.4923  1.765  1.006 -0.625  0.000
ST LOUIS       9  9 363 459 -0.156  8.695   15  0.685   15 -0.077   29 -0.283   16 0.4880  1.325 -0.135 -0.431  0.000
HOUSTON        7  9 309 339  0.043  8.577   16  0.670   16 -0.089   12  0.017   18 0.4804  1.049 -0.188  0.223  0.000
MINNESOTA      9  9 450 439 -0.139  8.388   17  0.663   17 -0.102   16 -0.072   15 0.4887  1.496  0.320 -0.464  0.000
SEATTLE        9  8 391 400 -0.256  7.272   18  0.646   19 -0.124   24 -0.221   17 0.4839  1.370 -0.011 -0.430  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 348 405 -0.203  7.294   19  0.632   18 -0.120   21 -0.155   19 0.4721  1.365  0.049 -0.358  0.000
CAROLINA       7  9 355 339 -0.146  7.419   20  0.573   20 -0.207   13 -0.021   20 0.4617  1.200 -0.039 -0.003  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND        5 11 320 442  0.137  9.558   21  0.559   21 -0.213   27 -0.232   24 0.4541  1.343 -0.059 -0.405  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS    6 10 303 347 -0.124  7.757   22  0.484   24 -0.293   26 -0.225   22 0.4575  1.207 -0.235 -0.216  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 276 390  0.228 10.017   23  0.483   23 -0.283   22 -0.190   21 0.4582  1.220 -0.182 -0.198  0.000
DALLAS         6 10 293 405 -0.139  7.924   24  0.482   22 -0.281   30 -0.318   23 0.4571  1.297 -0.209 -0.427  0.000
TENNESSEE      5 11 344 439  0.027  8.787   25  0.466   25 -0.294   28 -0.233   28 0.4404  1.424  0.053 -0.520  0.000
WASHINGTON     6 10 240 265 -0.171  7.424   26  0.440   27 -0.324   20 -0.143   25 0.4468  0.695 -0.731  0.446  0.000
DETROIT        6 10 296 350 -0.182  7.368   27  0.429   26 -0.321   25 -0.225   27 0.4432  1.128 -0.334 -0.115  0.000
MIAMI          4 12 275 354  0.138  9.458   28  0.409   28 -0.338   17 -0.073   26 0.4448  1.085 -0.235  0.090  0.000
ARIZONA        6 10 284 322 -0.230  7.180   29  0.385   29 -0.369   23 -0.220   29 0.4359  0.984 -0.501  0.062  0.000
CHICAGO        5 11 231 331 -0.224  7.383   30  0.317   30 -0.434   31 -0.469   30 0.4140  0.835 -0.916 -0.023  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY      5 11 301 304 -0.219  7.026   31  0.313   31 -0.463   19 -0.113   31 0.4117  0.991 -0.387  0.160  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  2 14 259 452 -0.271  7.417   32  0.000   32 -0.787   32 -0.618   32 0.3595  1.315 -0.484 -0.751  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO     12  5 463 333  0.121  9.122    5  1.191    5  0.406    5  0.387    6 0.5645  1.322  0.531  0.243  0.000
DENVER        10  7 405 353  0.132  9.409    8  1.004    8  0.208    8  0.198    9 0.5297  1.198  0.176  0.219  0.000
KANSAS CITY    7  9 483 435  0.168  9.154   14  0.744   14 -0.016   10  0.191   14 0.4923  1.765  1.006 -0.625  0.000
OAKLAND        5 11 320 442  0.137  9.558   21  0.559   21 -0.213   27 -0.232   24 0.4541  1.343 -0.059 -0.405  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  13  5 574 395  0.208  9.944    3  1.274    3  0.487    3  0.436    4 0.5844  1.626  1.025 -0.154  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   9  7 261 280  0.102  8.967   11  0.942   10  0.177   15 -0.046   11 0.5267  0.692 -0.637  0.546  0.000
HOUSTON        7  9 309 339  0.043  8.577   16  0.670   16 -0.089   12  0.017   18 0.4804  1.049 -0.188  0.223  0.000
TENNESSEE      5 11 344 439  0.027  8.787   25  0.466   25 -0.294   28 -0.233   28 0.4404  1.424  0.053 -0.520  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    16  2 419 309  0.238 10.417    2  1.596    2  0.851    2  0.441    2 0.6520  1.202  0.425  0.457  0.000
BALTIMORE      9  7 317 268  0.266  9.550    7  1.046    7  0.252    9  0.197    7 0.5527  0.894 -0.186  0.580  0.000
CINCINNATI     8  8 374 372  0.197  9.336   12  0.877   12  0.114   11  0.182   10 0.5282  1.472  0.538 -0.174  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 276 390  0.228 10.017   23  0.483   23 -0.283   22 -0.190   21 0.4582  1.220 -0.182 -0.198  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 522 311  0.352 11.340    1  1.698    1  0.921    1  0.734    1 0.6571  1.212  0.731  0.737  0.000
N.Y. JETS     11  7 370 298  0.304 10.786    6  1.156    6  0.366    6  0.309    5 0.5672  0.937 -0.027  0.645  0.000
BUFFALO        9  7 395 284  0.175  8.744   10  0.947   11  0.167    4  0.389    8 0.5382  1.250  0.436  0.342  0.000
MIAMI          4 12 275 354  0.138  9.458   28  0.409   28 -0.338   17 -0.073   26 0.4448  1.085 -0.235  0.090  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST LOUIS       9  9 363 459 -0.156  8.695   15  0.685   15 -0.077   29 -0.283   16 0.4880  1.325 -0.135 -0.431  0.000
SEATTLE        9  8 391 400 -0.256  7.272   18  0.646   19 -0.124   24 -0.221   17 0.4839  1.370 -0.011 -0.430  0.000
ARIZONA        6 10 284 322 -0.230  7.180   29  0.385   29 -0.369   23 -0.220   29 0.4359  0.984 -0.501  0.062  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  2 14 259 452 -0.271  7.417   32  0.000   32 -0.787   32 -0.618   32 0.3595  1.315 -0.484 -0.751  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA       12  6 397 381 -0.187  8.089    9  0.964    9  0.179   18 -0.103   12 0.5265  1.211 -0.106 -0.099  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 348 405 -0.203  7.294   19  0.632   18 -0.120   21 -0.155   19 0.4721  1.365  0.049 -0.358  0.000
CAROLINA       7  9 355 339 -0.146  7.419   20  0.573   20 -0.207   13 -0.021   20 0.4617  1.200 -0.039 -0.003  0.000
TAMPA BAY      5 11 301 304 -0.219  7.026   31  0.313   31 -0.463   19 -0.113   31 0.4117  0.991 -0.387  0.160  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     10  7 441 411 -0.195  7.493   13  0.772   13  0.004   14 -0.045   13 0.5054  1.546  0.422 -0.511  0.000
MINNESOTA      9  9 450 439 -0.139  8.388   17  0.663   17 -0.102   16 -0.072   15 0.4887  1.496  0.320 -0.464  0.000
DETROIT        6 10 296 350 -0.182  7.368   27  0.429   26 -0.321   25 -0.225   27 0.4432  1.128 -0.334 -0.115  0.000
CHICAGO        5 11 231 331 -0.224  7.383   30  0.317   30 -0.434   31 -0.469   30 0.4140  0.835 -0.916 -0.023  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  15  4 461 308 -0.083  8.751    4  1.248    4  0.457    7  0.239    3 0.5875  1.118  0.117  0.362  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS    6 10 303 347 -0.124  7.757   22  0.484   24 -0.293   26 -0.225   22 0.4575  1.207 -0.235 -0.216  0.000
DALLAS         6 10 293 405 -0.139  7.924   24  0.482   22 -0.281   30 -0.318   23 0.4571  1.297 -0.209 -0.427  0.000
WASHINGTON     6 10 240 265 -0.171  7.424   26  0.440   27 -0.324   20 -0.143   25 0.4468  0.695 -0.731  0.446  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   41 28 0.594    1  0.507
AFC NORTH  37 29 0.561    2  0.278
AFC WEST   34 32 0.515    3  0.247
AFC SOUTH  34 32 0.515    4  0.103
NFC EAST   33 34 0.493    5 -0.187
NFC SOUTH  32 34 0.485    6 -0.222
NFC NORTH  30 37 0.448    7 -0.309
NFC WEST   26 41 0.388    8 -0.537

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.189 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.021 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:39:28 2007
games through: Sun Feb 13 2005

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