Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 421 295  0.106  9.701    1  1.222    1  0.667    1  0.389    1 0.6521  1.047  0.225  0.553  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  14  5 540 401  0.194 10.346    2  0.996    2  0.455    2  0.324    2 0.6067  1.567  0.866 -0.219  0.000
TENNESSEE     13  5 469 358  0.173  9.632    3  0.935    3  0.413    4  0.295    3 0.5963  1.444  0.654 -0.065  0.000
KANSAS CITY   13  4 515 370 -0.045  7.598    4  0.870    4  0.351    6  0.190    7 0.5527  1.579  0.750 -0.369  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  13  5 397 318 -0.005  8.717    5  0.843    5  0.327    7  0.173    5 0.5817  1.174  0.165  0.180  0.000
CAROLINA      14  6 426 372  0.006  9.763    6  0.830    6  0.318    8  0.153    4 0.5820  1.109  0.064  0.242  0.000
ST LOUIS      12  5 470 357 -0.093  7.544    7  0.730    7  0.229    9  0.134    9 0.5337  1.444  0.493 -0.224  0.000
MIAMI         10  6 311 261  0.061  8.131    8  0.682    8  0.187   11  0.114    6 0.5623  0.968 -0.143  0.371  0.000
GREEN BAY     11  7 492 354  0.027  8.717    9  0.638   10  0.146    3  0.323   11 0.5185  1.354  0.554  0.092  0.000
DENVER        10  7 391 342  0.065  8.639   10  0.628    9  0.153   15  0.039   10 0.5186  1.170  0.026  0.053  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE       10  7 431 360  0.008  8.148   11  0.581   11  0.108   10  0.131   13 0.5021  1.329  0.328 -0.066  0.000
BALTIMORE     10  7 408 301 -0.042  7.867   12  0.560   12  0.081    5  0.225   14 0.5015  1.159  0.198  0.252  0.000
DALLAS        10  7 299 289 -0.111  7.793   13  0.539   13  0.063   19 -0.047    8 0.5385  0.930 -0.347  0.253  0.000
MINNESOTA      9  7 416 353 -0.103  7.135   14  0.475   14  0.004   13  0.043   17 0.4877  1.432  0.385 -0.298  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 340 326 -0.005  7.899   15  0.453   15 -0.013   16  0.039   12 0.5124  1.200  0.063  0.014  0.000
CINCINNATI     8  8 346 384 -0.105  7.507   16  0.401   16 -0.062   23 -0.144   21 0.4668  1.398  0.148 -0.437  0.000
TAMPA BAY      7  9 301 264  0.041  7.993   17  0.361   17 -0.097   12  0.056   15 0.4950  0.864 -0.317  0.428  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 384 337  0.005  7.833   18  0.338   19 -0.118   14  0.041   23 0.4590  1.293  0.189 -0.107  0.000
CHICAGO        7  9 283 346 -0.073  7.887   19  0.319   18 -0.117   21 -0.112   25 0.4543  0.988 -0.346  0.121  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 243 279  0.072  8.593   20  0.285   20 -0.148   22 -0.128   16 0.4948  0.747 -0.623  0.367  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. JETS      6 10 283 299  0.025  8.178   21  0.251   21 -0.187   17  0.002   18 0.4846  1.046 -0.163  0.167  0.000
HOUSTON        5 11 255 380  0.129  9.191   22  0.222   22 -0.189   25 -0.194   19 0.4752  1.068 -0.333 -0.054  0.000
PITTSBURGH     6 10 300 327 -0.039  7.918   23  0.202   23 -0.212   20 -0.065   27 0.4358  1.043 -0.234  0.104  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 276 331  0.102  8.790   24  0.187   24 -0.224   18 -0.032   20 0.4685  1.032 -0.215  0.151  0.000
ATLANTA        5 11 299 422  0.007  8.447   25  0.148   25 -0.252   26 -0.195   22 0.4603  1.318 -0.013 -0.378  0.000
CLEVELAND      5 11 254 322 -0.019  8.295   26  0.119   26 -0.279   24 -0.192   28 0.4272  0.845 -0.585  0.201  0.000
DETROIT        5 11 270 379 -0.061  8.241   27  0.111   27 -0.287   27 -0.219   29 0.4256  1.079 -0.345 -0.092  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 287 372 -0.065  7.907   28  0.096   28 -0.301   28 -0.258   24 0.4577  1.294 -0.109 -0.407  0.000
ARIZONA        4 12 225 452 -0.016  8.478   29  0.041   29 -0.349   32 -0.454   30 0.4057  1.131 -0.516 -0.392  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS    4 12 243 387 -0.052  8.266   30  0.024   30 -0.365   31 -0.436   26 0.4428  1.122 -0.510 -0.363  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND        4 12 270 379 -0.048  8.123   31  0.010   31 -0.379   30 -0.288   31 0.4000  1.070 -0.425 -0.151  0.000
SAN DIEGO      4 12 313 441 -0.056  8.037   32  0.000   32 -0.385   29 -0.267   32 0.3972  1.412  0.045 -0.580  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KANSAS CITY   13  4 515 370 -0.045  7.598    4  0.870    4  0.351    6  0.190    7 0.5527  1.579  0.750 -0.369  0.000
DENVER        10  7 391 342  0.065  8.639   10  0.628    9  0.153   15  0.039   10 0.5186  1.170  0.026  0.053  0.000
OAKLAND        4 12 270 379 -0.048  8.123   31  0.010   31 -0.379   30 -0.288   31 0.4000  1.070 -0.425 -0.151  0.000
SAN DIEGO      4 12 313 441 -0.056  8.037   32  0.000   32 -0.385   29 -0.267   32 0.3972  1.412  0.045 -0.580  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  14  5 540 401  0.194 10.346    2  0.996    2  0.455    2  0.324    2 0.6067  1.567  0.866 -0.219  0.000
TENNESSEE     13  5 469 358  0.173  9.632    3  0.935    3  0.413    4  0.295    3 0.5963  1.444  0.654 -0.065  0.000
HOUSTON        5 11 255 380  0.129  9.191   22  0.222   22 -0.189   25 -0.194   19 0.4752  1.068 -0.333 -0.054  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 276 331  0.102  8.790   24  0.187   24 -0.224   18 -0.032   20 0.4685  1.032 -0.215  0.151  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE     10  7 408 301 -0.042  7.867   12  0.560   12  0.081    5  0.225   14 0.5015  1.159  0.198  0.252  0.000
CINCINNATI     8  8 346 384 -0.105  7.507   16  0.401   16 -0.062   23 -0.144   21 0.4668  1.398  0.148 -0.437  0.000
PITTSBURGH     6 10 300 327 -0.039  7.918   23  0.202   23 -0.212   20 -0.065   27 0.4358  1.043 -0.234  0.104  0.000
CLEVELAND      5 11 254 322 -0.019  8.295   26  0.119   26 -0.279   24 -0.192   28 0.4272  0.845 -0.585  0.201  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   17  2 421 295  0.106  9.701    1  1.222    1  0.667    1  0.389    1 0.6521  1.047  0.225  0.553  0.000
MIAMI         10  6 311 261  0.061  8.131    8  0.682    8  0.187   11  0.114    6 0.5623  0.968 -0.143  0.371  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 243 279  0.072  8.593   20  0.285   20 -0.148   22 -0.128   16 0.4948  0.747 -0.623  0.367  0.000
N.Y. JETS      6 10 283 299  0.025  8.178   21  0.251   21 -0.187   17  0.002   18 0.4846  1.046 -0.163  0.167  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST LOUIS      12  5 470 357 -0.093  7.544    7  0.730    7  0.229    9  0.134    9 0.5337  1.444  0.493 -0.224  0.000
SEATTLE       10  7 431 360  0.008  8.148   11  0.581   11  0.108   10  0.131   13 0.5021  1.329  0.328 -0.066  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  7  9 384 337  0.005  7.833   18  0.338   19 -0.118   14  0.041   23 0.4590  1.293  0.189 -0.107  0.000
ARIZONA        4 12 225 452 -0.016  8.478   29  0.041   29 -0.349   32 -0.454   30 0.4057  1.131 -0.516 -0.392  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA      14  6 426 372  0.006  9.763    6  0.830    6  0.318    8  0.153    4 0.5820  1.109  0.064  0.242  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    8  8 340 326 -0.005  7.899   15  0.453   15 -0.013   16  0.039   12 0.5124  1.200  0.063  0.014  0.000
TAMPA BAY      7  9 301 264  0.041  7.993   17  0.361   17 -0.097   12  0.056   15 0.4950  0.864 -0.317  0.428  0.000
ATLANTA        5 11 299 422  0.007  8.447   25  0.148   25 -0.252   26 -0.195   22 0.4603  1.318 -0.013 -0.378  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     11  7 492 354  0.027  8.717    9  0.638   10  0.146    3  0.323   11 0.5185  1.354  0.554  0.092  0.000
MINNESOTA      9  7 416 353 -0.103  7.135   14  0.475   14  0.004   13  0.043   17 0.4877  1.432  0.385 -0.298  0.000
CHICAGO        7  9 283 346 -0.073  7.887   19  0.319   18 -0.117   21 -0.112   25 0.4543  0.988 -0.346  0.121  0.000
DETROIT        5 11 270 379 -0.061  8.241   27  0.111   27 -0.287   27 -0.219   29 0.4256  1.079 -0.345 -0.092  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  13  5 397 318 -0.005  8.717    5  0.843    5  0.327    7  0.173    5 0.5817  1.174  0.165  0.180  0.000
DALLAS        10  7 299 289 -0.111  7.793   13  0.539   13  0.063   19 -0.047    8 0.5385  0.930 -0.347  0.253  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 287 372 -0.065  7.907   28  0.096   28 -0.301   28 -0.258   24 0.4577  1.294 -0.109 -0.407  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS    4 12 243 387 -0.052  8.266   30  0.024   30 -0.365   31 -0.436   26 0.4428  1.122 -0.510 -0.363  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   39 28 0.582    1  0.186
AFC SOUTH  37 32 0.536    2  0.177
NFC SOUTH  34 34 0.500    3  0.011
NFC NORTH  32 34 0.485    4 -0.020
NFC WEST   33 33 0.500    5 -0.021
AFC NORTH  29 36 0.446    6 -0.095
AFC WEST   31 35 0.470    7 -0.103
NFC EAST   32 35 0.478    8 -0.251

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.253 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.032 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:39:27 2007
games through: Sun Feb  1 2004

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