Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY     15  4  0 452 233  0.156  9.821    1  0.559    1  0.542    1  0.656    1 0.5957   32  0.779   12  0.144    1  1.169
OAKLAND       13  6  0 542 386  0.193 10.444    2  0.395    2  0.384    2  0.479    2 0.5804    6  1.382    2  0.698    7  0.259
GREEN BAY     12  5  0 405 355  0.029  8.541    3  0.352    3  0.341   11  0.074    4 0.5532   13  1.263   13  0.129   12  0.019
PHILADELPHIA  13  5  0 445 274 -0.027  8.159    4  0.329    4  0.315    3  0.332    3 0.5652   24  1.143    8  0.232    2  0.432
PITTSBURGH    11  6  1 457 412  0.031  9.103    5  0.247    5  0.234   10  0.109    6 0.5442    4  1.461    5  0.441   23 -0.222
TENNESSEE     12  6  0 425 396 -0.044  8.630    6  0.245    6  0.227    9  0.136    5 0.5512    9  1.354    6  0.315   17 -0.044
ATLANTA       10  7  1 435 341  0.146  9.544    7  0.201    7  0.185    5  0.268    9 0.5319   20  1.177   10  0.211    6  0.325
SAN FRANCISCO 11  7  0 412 420 -0.029  8.932    8  0.193    8  0.176   21 -0.103    7 0.5441    8  1.354   16  0.077   26 -0.282
NEW ENGLAND    9  7  0 381 346  0.145  8.890    9  0.184    9  0.169   12  0.067   10 0.5285   14  1.259   14  0.118   13  0.017
N.Y. JETS     10  8  0 410 366  0.150  9.991   10  0.183   10  0.165    4  0.293   11 0.5240   21  1.163    9  0.220    3  0.367
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MIAMI          9  7  0 378 301  0.126  8.539   11  0.178   12  0.147    6  0.227   12 0.5231   26  1.122   15  0.102    4  0.353
DENVER         9  7  0 392 344  0.124  8.626   12  0.168   11  0.150    7  0.178    8 0.5341   12  1.266    7  0.238    9  0.118
NEW ORLEANS    9  7  0 432 388  0.037  8.168   13  0.131   13  0.110   15  0.014   15 0.5176    2  1.597    3  0.550   31 -0.522
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7  0 349 354 -0.077  8.117   14  0.125   14  0.105   19 -0.092   14 0.5209   17  1.204   21 -0.114   19 -0.070
KANSAS CITY    8  8  0 467 399  0.141  8.712   15  0.084   15  0.064    8  0.169   16 0.5134    1  1.607    1  0.721   28 -0.383
CLEVELAND      9  8  0 377 356  0.017  8.628   16  0.052   16  0.048   14  0.039   17 0.5082   18  1.204   18  0.017   10  0.061
N.Y. GIANTS   10  7  0 358 318 -0.142  7.610   17  0.047   17  0.040   13  0.049   13 0.5230   27  1.118   19 -0.082    8  0.179
BUFFALO        8  8  0 379 397  0.045  8.464   18  0.036   18  0.033   16 -0.035   19 0.4933    5  1.386   11  0.190   25 -0.259
SAN DIEGO      8  8  0 333 367  0.035  8.448   19  0.030   19  0.033   24 -0.134   18 0.5042   23  1.149   26 -0.226   16 -0.042
BALTIMORE      7  9  0 316 354 -0.005  8.252   20 -0.094   20 -0.096   22 -0.119   23 0.4780   19  1.192   22 -0.157   20 -0.081
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       7  9  0 258 302 -0.032  8.168   21 -0.108   21 -0.117   23 -0.121   24 0.4719   30  0.825   29 -0.586    5  0.344
SEATTLE        7  9  0 355 369 -0.088  7.686   22 -0.140   23 -0.151   18 -0.049   21 0.4819   11  1.289   17  0.040   21 -0.139
ST LOUIS       7  9  0 316 369 -0.093  7.828   23 -0.141   22 -0.145   26 -0.199   20 0.4835   15  1.240   23 -0.174   24 -0.224
WASHINGTON     7  9  0 307 365 -0.159  7.423   24 -0.171   24 -0.179   25 -0.187   22 0.4787   16  1.230   24 -0.174   22 -0.199
MINNESOTA      6 10  0 390 442  0.010  8.297   25 -0.183   25 -0.189   17 -0.035   26 0.4528    3  1.572    4  0.464   32 -0.534
JACKSONVILLE   6 10  0 328 315 -0.122  7.332   26 -0.261   26 -0.272   20 -0.099   25 0.4532   22  1.150   25 -0.190   14 -0.009
CHICAGO        4 12  0 281 379  0.045  8.727   27 -0.340   27 -0.350   27 -0.239   29 0.4181   28  1.082   28 -0.413   18 -0.065
ARIZONA        5 11  0 262 417 -0.169  7.680   28 -0.352   28 -0.366   32 -0.484   27 0.4380   25  1.136   30 -0.592   27 -0.376
DALLAS         5 11  0 217 329 -0.228  7.094   29 -0.397   29 -0.412   31 -0.427   28 0.4300   31  0.815   32 -0.903   11  0.048
HOUSTON        4 12  0 213 356 -0.183  7.601   30 -0.450   30 -0.467   30 -0.426   30 0.4138   29  0.876   31 -0.837   15 -0.015
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        3 13  0 306 451 -0.068  8.216   31 -0.507   31 -0.526   28 -0.313   31 0.3895    7  1.373   20 -0.107   30 -0.519
CINCINNATI     2 14  0 279 456 -0.056  8.291   32 -0.595   32 -0.619   29 -0.387   32 0.3819   10  1.314   27 -0.263   29 -0.511

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
OAKLAND       13  6  0 542 386  0.193 10.444    2  0.395    2  0.384    2  0.479    2 0.5804    6  1.382    2  0.698    7  0.259
DENVER         9  7  0 392 344  0.124  8.626   12  0.168   11  0.150    7  0.178    8 0.5341   12  1.266    7  0.238    9  0.118
KANSAS CITY    8  8  0 467 399  0.141  8.712   15  0.084   15  0.064    8  0.169   16 0.5134    1  1.607    1  0.721   28 -0.383
SAN DIEGO      8  8  0 333 367  0.035  8.448   19  0.030   19  0.033   24 -0.134   18 0.5042   23  1.149   26 -0.226   16 -0.042

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TENNESSEE     12  6  0 425 396 -0.044  8.630    6  0.245    6  0.227    9  0.136    5 0.5512    9  1.354    6  0.315   17 -0.044
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7  0 349 354 -0.077  8.117   14  0.125   14  0.105   19 -0.092   14 0.5209   17  1.204   21 -0.114   19 -0.070
JACKSONVILLE   6 10  0 328 315 -0.122  7.332   26 -0.261   26 -0.272   20 -0.099   25 0.4532   22  1.150   25 -0.190   14 -0.009
HOUSTON        4 12  0 213 356 -0.183  7.601   30 -0.450   30 -0.467   30 -0.426   30 0.4138   29  0.876   31 -0.837   15 -0.015

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH    11  6  1 457 412  0.031  9.103    5  0.247    5  0.234   10  0.109    6 0.5442    4  1.461    5  0.441   23 -0.222
CLEVELAND      9  8  0 377 356  0.017  8.628   16  0.052   16  0.048   14  0.039   17 0.5082   18  1.204   18  0.017   10  0.061
BALTIMORE      7  9  0 316 354 -0.005  8.252   20 -0.094   20 -0.096   22 -0.119   23 0.4780   19  1.192   22 -0.157   20 -0.081
CINCINNATI     2 14  0 279 456 -0.056  8.291   32 -0.595   32 -0.619   29 -0.387   32 0.3819   10  1.314   27 -0.263   29 -0.511

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NEW ENGLAND    9  7  0 381 346  0.145  8.890    9  0.184    9  0.169   12  0.067   10 0.5285   14  1.259   14  0.118   13  0.017
N.Y. JETS     10  8  0 410 366  0.150  9.991   10  0.183   10  0.165    4  0.293   11 0.5240   21  1.163    9  0.220    3  0.367
MIAMI          9  7  0 378 301  0.126  8.539   11  0.178   12  0.147    6  0.227   12 0.5231   26  1.122   15  0.102    4  0.353
BUFFALO        8  8  0 379 397  0.045  8.464   18  0.036   18  0.033   16 -0.035   19 0.4933    5  1.386   11  0.190   25 -0.259

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN FRANCISCO 11  7  0 412 420 -0.029  8.932    8  0.193    8  0.176   21 -0.103    7 0.5441    8  1.354   16  0.077   26 -0.282
SEATTLE        7  9  0 355 369 -0.088  7.686   22 -0.140   23 -0.151   18 -0.049   21 0.4819   11  1.289   17  0.040   21 -0.139
ST LOUIS       7  9  0 316 369 -0.093  7.828   23 -0.141   22 -0.145   26 -0.199   20 0.4835   15  1.240   23 -0.174   24 -0.224
ARIZONA        5 11  0 262 417 -0.169  7.680   28 -0.352   28 -0.366   32 -0.484   27 0.4380   25  1.136   30 -0.592   27 -0.376

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TAMPA BAY     15  4  0 452 233  0.156  9.821    1  0.559    1  0.542    1  0.656    1 0.5957   32  0.779   12  0.144    1  1.169
ATLANTA       10  7  1 435 341  0.146  9.544    7  0.201    7  0.185    5  0.268    9 0.5319   20  1.177   10  0.211    6  0.325
NEW ORLEANS    9  7  0 432 388  0.037  8.168   13  0.131   13  0.110   15  0.014   15 0.5176    2  1.597    3  0.550   31 -0.522
CAROLINA       7  9  0 258 302 -0.032  8.168   21 -0.108   21 -0.117   23 -0.121   24 0.4719   30  0.825   29 -0.586    5  0.344

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GREEN BAY     12  5  0 405 355  0.029  8.541    3  0.352    3  0.341   11  0.074    4 0.5532   13  1.263   13  0.129   12  0.019
MINNESOTA      6 10  0 390 442  0.010  8.297   25 -0.183   25 -0.189   17 -0.035   26 0.4528    3  1.572    4  0.464   32 -0.534
CHICAGO        4 12  0 281 379  0.045  8.727   27 -0.340   27 -0.350   27 -0.239   29 0.4181   28  1.082   28 -0.413   18 -0.065
DETROIT        3 13  0 306 451 -0.068  8.216   31 -0.507   31 -0.526   28 -0.313   31 0.3895    7  1.373   20 -0.107   30 -0.519

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILADELPHIA  13  5  0 445 274 -0.027  8.159    4  0.329    4  0.315    3  0.332    3 0.5652   24  1.143    8  0.232    2  0.432
N.Y. GIANTS   10  7  0 358 318 -0.142  7.610   17  0.047   17  0.040   13  0.049   13 0.5230   27  1.118   19 -0.082    8  0.179
WASHINGTON     7  9  0 307 365 -0.159  7.423   24 -0.171   24 -0.179   25 -0.187   22 0.4787   16  1.230   24 -0.174   22 -0.199
DALLAS         5 11  0 217 329 -0.228  7.094   29 -0.397   29 -0.412   31 -0.427   28 0.4300   31  0.815   32 -0.903   11  0.048

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC SOUTH  41 27  1 0.601    1  0.363
AFC WEST   38 29  0 0.567    2  0.337
AFC EAST   36 30  0 0.545    3  0.242
NFC EAST   35 32  0 0.522    4 -0.134
AFC NORTH  29 37  1 0.440    5 -0.179
AFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    6 -0.201
NFC NORTH  25 40  0 0.385    7 -0.232
NFC WEST   30 36  0 0.455    8 -0.327

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.185 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:44:22 2020
games through: Sun Jan 26 2003

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