Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY     15  4  0 452 233  0.156  9.821    1  1.257    1  0.542    1  0.656    1 0.5957  0.803  0.161  1.152  0.000
OAKLAND       13  6  0 542 386  0.193 10.444    2  1.082    2  0.384    2  0.479    2 0.5804  1.391  0.702  0.255  0.000
GREEN BAY     12  5  0 405 355  0.029  8.541    3  1.035    3  0.341   11  0.074    4 0.5532  1.267  0.127  0.021  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  13  5  0 445 274 -0.027  8.159    4  1.009    4  0.315    3  0.332    3 0.5652  1.161  0.247  0.416  0.000
PITTSBURGH    11  6  1 457 412  0.031  9.103    5  0.919    5  0.234   10  0.109    6 0.5442  1.459  0.431 -0.212  0.000
TENNESSEE     12  6  0 425 396 -0.044  8.630    6  0.918    6  0.227    9  0.136    5 0.5512  1.353  0.307 -0.036  0.000
ATLANTA       10  7  1 435 341  0.146  9.544    7  0.869    7  0.185    5  0.268    9 0.5319  1.187  0.217  0.319  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO 11  7  0 412 420 -0.029  8.932    8  0.861    8  0.176   21 -0.103    7 0.5441  1.356  0.072 -0.278  0.000
NEW ENGLAND    9  7  0 381 346  0.145  8.890    9  0.851    9  0.169   12  0.067   10 0.5285  1.259  0.111  0.024  0.000
N.Y. JETS     10  8  0 410 366  0.150  9.991   10  0.850   10  0.165    4  0.293   11 0.5240  1.167  0.217  0.369  0.000
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI          9  7  0 378 301  0.126  8.539   11  0.845   12  0.147    6  0.227   12 0.5231  1.128  0.102  0.353  0.000
DENVER         9  7  0 392 344  0.124  8.626   12  0.833   11  0.150    7  0.178    8 0.5341  1.272  0.238  0.118  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    9  7  0 432 388  0.037  8.168   13  0.792   13  0.110   15  0.014   15 0.5176  1.592  0.535 -0.507  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7  0 349 354 -0.077  8.117   14  0.786   14  0.105   19 -0.092   14 0.5209  1.208 -0.115 -0.069  0.000
KANSAS CITY    8  8  0 467 399  0.141  8.712   15  0.740   15  0.064    8  0.169   16 0.5134  1.612  0.721 -0.383  0.000
CLEVELAND      9  8  0 377 356  0.017  8.628   16  0.706   16  0.048   14  0.039   17 0.5082  1.204  0.010  0.068  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS   10  7  0 358 318 -0.142  7.610   17  0.701   17  0.040   13  0.049   13 0.5230  1.117 -0.091  0.188  0.000
BUFFALO        8  8  0 379 397  0.045  8.464   18  0.688   18  0.033   16 -0.035   19 0.4933  1.387  0.183 -0.253  0.000
SAN DIEGO      8  8  0 333 367  0.035  8.448   19  0.681   19  0.033   24 -0.134   18 0.5042  1.156 -0.224 -0.044  0.000
BALTIMORE      7  9  0 316 354 -0.005  8.252   20  0.548   20 -0.096   22 -0.119   23 0.4780  1.195 -0.160 -0.078  0.000
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA       7  9  0 258 302 -0.032  8.168   21  0.532   21 -0.117   23 -0.121   24 0.4719  0.835 -0.584  0.341  0.000
SEATTLE        7  9  0 355 369 -0.088  7.686   22  0.497   23 -0.151   18 -0.049   21 0.4819  1.287  0.031 -0.130  0.000
ST LOUIS       7  9  0 316 369 -0.093  7.828   23  0.496   22 -0.145   26 -0.199   20 0.4835  1.239 -0.182 -0.216  0.000
WASHINGTON     7  9  0 307 365 -0.159  7.423   24  0.463   24 -0.179   25 -0.187   22 0.4787  1.236 -0.175 -0.199  0.000
MINNESOTA      6 10  0 390 442  0.010  8.297   25  0.450   25 -0.189   17 -0.035   26 0.4528  1.571  0.454 -0.524  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   6 10  0 328 315 -0.122  7.332   26  0.364   26 -0.272   20 -0.099   25 0.4532  1.145 -0.203  0.004  0.000
CHICAGO        4 12  0 281 379  0.045  8.727   27  0.278   27 -0.350   27 -0.239   29 0.4181  1.086 -0.416 -0.062  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11  0 262 417 -0.169  7.680   28  0.265   28 -0.366   32 -0.484   27 0.4380  1.155 -0.576 -0.392  0.000
DALLAS         5 11  0 217 329 -0.228  7.094   29  0.216   29 -0.412   31 -0.427   28 0.4300  0.829 -0.896  0.041  0.000
HOUSTON        4 12  0 213 356 -0.183  7.601   30  0.157   30 -0.467   30 -0.426   30 0.4138  0.889 -0.830 -0.022  0.000
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        3 13  0 306 451 -0.068  8.216   31  0.096   31 -0.526   28 -0.313   31 0.3895  1.382 -0.101 -0.524  0.000
CINCINNATI     2 14  0 279 456 -0.056  8.291   32  0.000   32 -0.619   29 -0.387   32 0.3819  1.334 -0.243 -0.532  0.000

AFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND       13  6  0 542 386  0.193 10.444    2  1.082    2  0.384    2  0.479    2 0.5804  1.391  0.702  0.255  0.000
DENVER         9  7  0 392 344  0.124  8.626   12  0.833   11  0.150    7  0.178    8 0.5341  1.272  0.238  0.118  0.000
KANSAS CITY    8  8  0 467 399  0.141  8.712   15  0.740   15  0.064    8  0.169   16 0.5134  1.612  0.721 -0.383  0.000
SAN DIEGO      8  8  0 333 367  0.035  8.448   19  0.681   19  0.033   24 -0.134   18 0.5042  1.156 -0.224 -0.044  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TENNESSEE     12  6  0 425 396 -0.044  8.630    6  0.918    6  0.227    9  0.136    5 0.5512  1.353  0.307 -0.036  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  10  7  0 349 354 -0.077  8.117   14  0.786   14  0.105   19 -0.092   14 0.5209  1.208 -0.115 -0.069  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   6 10  0 328 315 -0.122  7.332   26  0.364   26 -0.272   20 -0.099   25 0.4532  1.145 -0.203  0.004  0.000
HOUSTON        4 12  0 213 356 -0.183  7.601   30  0.157   30 -0.467   30 -0.426   30 0.4138  0.889 -0.830 -0.022  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    11  6  1 457 412  0.031  9.103    5  0.919    5  0.234   10  0.109    6 0.5442  1.459  0.431 -0.212  0.000
CLEVELAND      9  8  0 377 356  0.017  8.628   16  0.706   16  0.048   14  0.039   17 0.5082  1.204  0.010  0.068  0.000
BALTIMORE      7  9  0 316 354 -0.005  8.252   20  0.548   20 -0.096   22 -0.119   23 0.4780  1.195 -0.160 -0.078  0.000
CINCINNATI     2 14  0 279 456 -0.056  8.291   32  0.000   32 -0.619   29 -0.387   32 0.3819  1.334 -0.243 -0.532  0.000

AFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND    9  7  0 381 346  0.145  8.890    9  0.851    9  0.169   12  0.067   10 0.5285  1.259  0.111  0.024  0.000
N.Y. JETS     10  8  0 410 366  0.150  9.991   10  0.850   10  0.165    4  0.293   11 0.5240  1.167  0.217  0.369  0.000
MIAMI          9  7  0 378 301  0.126  8.539   11  0.845   12  0.147    6  0.227   12 0.5231  1.128  0.102  0.353  0.000
BUFFALO        8  8  0 379 397  0.045  8.464   18  0.688   18  0.033   16 -0.035   19 0.4933  1.387  0.183 -0.253  0.000

NFC WEST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN FRANCISCO 11  7  0 412 420 -0.029  8.932    8  0.861    8  0.176   21 -0.103    7 0.5441  1.356  0.072 -0.278  0.000
SEATTLE        7  9  0 355 369 -0.088  7.686   22  0.497   23 -0.151   18 -0.049   21 0.4819  1.287  0.031 -0.130  0.000
ST LOUIS       7  9  0 316 369 -0.093  7.828   23  0.496   22 -0.145   26 -0.199   20 0.4835  1.239 -0.182 -0.216  0.000
ARIZONA        5 11  0 262 417 -0.169  7.680   28  0.265   28 -0.366   32 -0.484   27 0.4380  1.155 -0.576 -0.392  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY     15  4  0 452 233  0.156  9.821    1  1.257    1  0.542    1  0.656    1 0.5957  0.803  0.161  1.152  0.000
ATLANTA       10  7  1 435 341  0.146  9.544    7  0.869    7  0.185    5  0.268    9 0.5319  1.187  0.217  0.319  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    9  7  0 432 388  0.037  8.168   13  0.792   13  0.110   15  0.014   15 0.5176  1.592  0.535 -0.507  0.000
CAROLINA       7  9  0 258 302 -0.032  8.168   21  0.532   21 -0.117   23 -0.121   24 0.4719  0.835 -0.584  0.341  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     12  5  0 405 355  0.029  8.541    3  1.035    3  0.341   11  0.074    4 0.5532  1.267  0.127  0.021  0.000
MINNESOTA      6 10  0 390 442  0.010  8.297   25  0.450   25 -0.189   17 -0.035   26 0.4528  1.571  0.454 -0.524  0.000
CHICAGO        4 12  0 281 379  0.045  8.727   27  0.278   27 -0.350   27 -0.239   29 0.4181  1.086 -0.416 -0.062  0.000
DETROIT        3 13  0 306 451 -0.068  8.216   31  0.096   31 -0.526   28 -0.313   31 0.3895  1.382 -0.101 -0.524  0.000

NFC EAST
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  13  5  0 445 274 -0.027  8.159    4  1.009    4  0.315    3  0.332    3 0.5652  1.161  0.247  0.416  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS   10  7  0 358 318 -0.142  7.610   17  0.701   17  0.040   13  0.049   13 0.5230  1.117 -0.091  0.188  0.000
WASHINGTON     7  9  0 307 365 -0.159  7.423   24  0.463   24 -0.179   25 -0.187   22 0.4787  1.236 -0.175 -0.199  0.000
DALLAS         5 11  0 217 329 -0.228  7.094   29  0.216   29 -0.412   31 -0.427   28 0.4300  0.829 -0.896  0.041  0.000

DIVISION    W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC SOUTH  41 27  1 0.601    1  0.363
AFC WEST   38 29  0 0.567    2  0.337
AFC EAST   36 30  0 0.545    3  0.242
NFC EAST   35 32  0 0.522    4 -0.134
AFC NORTH  29 37  1 0.440    5 -0.179
AFC SOUTH  32 35  0 0.478    6 -0.201
NFC NORTH  25 40  0 0.385    7 -0.232
NFC WEST   30 36  0 0.455    8 -0.327

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.185 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:39:27 2007
games through: Sun Jan 26 2003

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