Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST LOUIS      16  3 594 334  0.130  9.733    1  1.426    1  0.572    1  0.527    1 0.6194  1.470  0.955  0.099  0.000
CHICAGO       13  4 357 236  0.028  8.476    2  1.238    2  0.395    5  0.298    2 0.5797  0.904 -0.000  0.596  0.000
PITTSBURGH    14  4 396 246 -0.029  8.644    3  1.234    3  0.389    3  0.335    3 0.5791  0.953  0.092  0.577  0.000
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 431 319 -0.010  9.351    4  1.195    4  0.355    6  0.274    4 0.5784  1.033  0.124  0.425  0.000
GREEN BAY     13  5 432 326  0.045  9.078    5  1.172    5  0.335    7  0.232    5 0.5668  1.254  0.359  0.106  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  13  6 431 265  0.118  9.933    6  1.143    6  0.310    2  0.400    7 0.5599  0.982  0.190  0.609  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO 12  5 424 307  0.042  8.321    7  1.127    7  0.298    4  0.323    6 0.5655  1.184  0.359  0.287  0.000
BALTIMORE     11  7 333 295  0.112  9.845    8  1.037    8  0.218    8  0.178    9 0.5492  0.936 -0.084  0.440  0.000
MIAMI         11  6 347 310 -0.035  8.460    9  0.999    9  0.197   13 -0.008    8 0.5536  0.992 -0.206  0.189  0.000
OAKLAND       11  7 450 367 -0.024  8.900   10  0.937   10  0.135    9  0.129   11 0.5268  1.364  0.405 -0.146  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY JETS       10  7 332 333  0.006  8.745   11  0.901   11  0.116   12  0.006   10 0.5380  1.056 -0.116  0.128  0.000
TAMPA BAY      9  8 333 311  0.127  9.446   12  0.893   12  0.111   10  0.072   12 0.5226  1.047 -0.061  0.205  0.000
SEATTLE        9  7 301 324 -0.057  8.014   13  0.834   13  0.055   17 -0.074   13 0.4981  1.119 -0.121 -0.028  0.000
DENVER         8  8 340 339 -0.056  7.929   14  0.742   14 -0.042   16 -0.070   14 0.4876  1.253  0.055 -0.195  0.000
WASHINGTON     8  8 256 303 -0.096  7.902   15  0.737   15 -0.044   14 -0.042   18 0.4811  0.943 -0.296  0.212  0.000
CLEVELAND      7  9 285 319  0.070  8.774   16  0.718   16 -0.060   19 -0.077   15 0.4875  1.099 -0.148 -0.007  0.000
TENNESSEE      7  9 336 388  0.039  8.668   17  0.695   17 -0.072   18 -0.075   17 0.4856  1.461  0.340 -0.490  0.000
ATLANTA        7  9 291 377 -0.050  8.383   18  0.664   18 -0.100   25 -0.242   16 0.4869  1.133 -0.270 -0.214  0.000
NY GIANTS      7  9 294 321 -0.045  8.054   19  0.636   20 -0.128   21 -0.089   21 0.4742  1.085 -0.176 -0.002  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 333 409 -0.099  8.011   20  0.628   19 -0.121   28 -0.292   19 0.4800  1.377  0.002 -0.587  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CINCINNATI     6 10 226 309  0.076  9.054   21  0.614   21 -0.133   24 -0.224   22 0.4687  0.870 -0.558  0.111  0.000
ARIZONA        7  9 295 343 -0.138  7.685   22  0.598   22 -0.150   22 -0.143   24 0.4549  1.214 -0.069 -0.218  0.000
KANSAS CITY    6 10 320 344  0.010  8.446   23  0.562   23 -0.183   15 -0.066   25 0.4522  1.206 -0.002 -0.130  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS   6 10 413 486 -0.008  8.469   24  0.561   24 -0.187   23 -0.153   20 0.4782  1.759  0.725 -1.031  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   6 10 294 286  0.016  8.293   25  0.550   25 -0.199   11  0.029   23 0.4636  1.037 -0.116  0.174  0.000
MINNESOTA      5 11 290 390  0.013  8.827   26  0.454   26 -0.263   26 -0.246   26 0.4432  1.287 -0.075 -0.417  0.000
DALLAS         5 11 246 338 -0.082  8.063   27  0.399   27 -0.314   27 -0.246   27 0.4278  1.008 -0.425 -0.066  0.000
SAN DIEGO      5 11 332 321 -0.087  7.701   28  0.392   28 -0.346   20 -0.084   28 0.4245  1.200 -0.028 -0.139  0.000
BUFFALO        3 13 265 420 -0.095  8.252   29  0.211   29 -0.494   30 -0.368   29 0.4061  1.230 -0.272 -0.463  0.000
DETROIT        2 14 270 424  0.023  9.061   30  0.152   30 -0.551   29 -0.310   30 0.3943  1.286 -0.140 -0.479  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA       1 15 253 410 -0.081  8.404   31  0.000   31 -0.702   31 -0.411   31 0.3742  1.135 -0.436 -0.385  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND       11  7 450 367 -0.024  8.900   10  0.937   10  0.135    9  0.129   11 0.5268  1.364  0.405 -0.146  0.000
SEATTLE        9  7 301 324 -0.057  8.014   13  0.834   13  0.055   17 -0.074   13 0.4981  1.119 -0.121 -0.028  0.000
DENVER         8  8 340 339 -0.056  7.929   14  0.742   14 -0.042   16 -0.070   14 0.4876  1.253  0.055 -0.195  0.000
KANSAS CITY    6 10 320 344  0.010  8.446   23  0.562   23 -0.183   15 -0.066   25 0.4522  1.206 -0.002 -0.130  0.000
SAN DIEGO      5 11 332 321 -0.087  7.701   28  0.392   28 -0.346   20 -0.084   28 0.4245  1.200 -0.028 -0.139  0.000

AFC CENTRAL
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PITTSBURGH    14  4 396 246 -0.029  8.644    3  1.234    3  0.389    3  0.335    3 0.5791  0.953  0.092  0.577  0.000
BALTIMORE     11  7 333 295  0.112  9.845    8  1.037    8  0.218    8  0.178    9 0.5492  0.936 -0.084  0.440  0.000
CLEVELAND      7  9 285 319  0.070  8.774   16  0.718   16 -0.060   19 -0.077   15 0.4875  1.099 -0.148 -0.007  0.000
TENNESSEE      7  9 336 388  0.039  8.668   17  0.695   17 -0.072   18 -0.075   17 0.4856  1.461  0.340 -0.490  0.000
CINCINNATI     6 10 226 309  0.076  9.054   21  0.614   21 -0.133   24 -0.224   22 0.4687  0.870 -0.558  0.111  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   6 10 294 286  0.016  8.293   25  0.550   25 -0.199   11  0.029   23 0.4636  1.037 -0.116  0.174  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   14  5 431 319 -0.010  9.351    4  1.195    4  0.355    6  0.274    4 0.5784  1.033  0.124  0.425  0.000
MIAMI         11  6 347 310 -0.035  8.460    9  0.999    9  0.197   13 -0.008    8 0.5536  0.992 -0.206  0.189  0.000
NY JETS       10  7 332 333  0.006  8.745   11  0.901   11  0.116   12  0.006   10 0.5380  1.056 -0.116  0.128  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS   6 10 413 486 -0.008  8.469   24  0.561   24 -0.187   23 -0.153   20 0.4782  1.759  0.725 -1.031  0.000
BUFFALO        3 13 265 420 -0.095  8.252   29  0.211   29 -0.494   30 -0.368   29 0.4061  1.230 -0.272 -0.463  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST LOUIS      16  3 594 334  0.130  9.733    1  1.426    1  0.572    1  0.527    1 0.6194  1.470  0.955  0.099  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO 12  5 424 307  0.042  8.321    7  1.127    7  0.298    4  0.323    6 0.5655  1.184  0.359  0.287  0.000
ATLANTA        7  9 291 377 -0.050  8.383   18  0.664   18 -0.100   25 -0.242   16 0.4869  1.133 -0.270 -0.214  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 333 409 -0.099  8.011   20  0.628   19 -0.121   28 -0.292   19 0.4800  1.377  0.002 -0.587  0.000
CAROLINA       1 15 253 410 -0.081  8.404   31  0.000   31 -0.702   31 -0.411   31 0.3742  1.135 -0.436 -0.385  0.000

NFC CENTRAL
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       13  4 357 236  0.028  8.476    2  1.238    2  0.395    5  0.298    2 0.5797  0.904 -0.000  0.596  0.000
GREEN BAY     13  5 432 326  0.045  9.078    5  1.172    5  0.335    7  0.232    5 0.5668  1.254  0.359  0.106  0.000
TAMPA BAY      9  8 333 311  0.127  9.446   12  0.893   12  0.111   10  0.072   12 0.5226  1.047 -0.061  0.205  0.000
MINNESOTA      5 11 290 390  0.013  8.827   26  0.454   26 -0.263   26 -0.246   26 0.4432  1.287 -0.075 -0.417  0.000
DETROIT        2 14 270 424  0.023  9.061   30  0.152   30 -0.551   29 -0.310   30 0.3943  1.286 -0.140 -0.479  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  13  6 431 265  0.118  9.933    6  1.143    6  0.310    2  0.400    7 0.5599  0.982  0.190  0.609  0.000
WASHINGTON     8  8 256 303 -0.096  7.902   15  0.737   15 -0.044   14 -0.042   18 0.4811  0.943 -0.296  0.212  0.000
NY GIANTS      7  9 294 321 -0.045  8.054   19  0.636   20 -0.128   21 -0.089   21 0.4742  1.085 -0.176 -0.002  0.000
ARIZONA        7  9 295 343 -0.138  7.685   22  0.598   22 -0.150   22 -0.143   24 0.4549  1.214 -0.069 -0.218  0.000
DALLAS         5 11 246 338 -0.082  8.063   27  0.399   27 -0.314   27 -0.246   27 0.4278  1.008 -0.425 -0.066  0.000

DIVISION     W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC CENTRAL 51 49 0.510    1  0.058
NFC CENTRAL 42 42 0.500    2  0.040
NFC WEST    43 41 0.512    3 -0.009
AFC WEST    39 43 0.476    4 -0.023
AFC EAST    44 41 0.518    5 -0.112
NFC EAST    40 43 0.482    6 -0.126

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.157 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.019 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:39:26 2007
games through: Sat Feb  9 2002

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