Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Berkeley-NY             21  4 2326 1883 -1.127    1  5.417    1  0.004    1 -0.669    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  6.064  3.705 -0.035 -1.303
Villa Maria             23  3 2353 1971 -1.670    2  4.586    2 -0.532    3 -0.843    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  5.138  3.697 -0.245 -1.442
Johnson & Wales NC      18  9 2275 2220 -1.098    3  4.511    3 -0.601    2 -0.829    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  5.016  3.665 -0.370 -1.287
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    18  4 1791 1485 -1.836    4  4.119    4 -0.961    5 -1.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  4.558  3.530 -1.161 -0.919
Southern Maine CC       20  2 1870 1327 -2.276    5  4.002    5 -1.039    4 -1.025    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  4.503  3.406 -1.641 -0.408
New Hampshire Tech      21  4 2486 1941 -2.209    6  3.724    6 -1.275    6 -1.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  4.166  3.812 -0.169 -2.429
Central Penn            12 14 1924 2036 -1.162    7  3.622    7 -1.357    7 -1.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  4.037  3.565 -1.295 -1.353
Penn St-Mont Alto       19  6 1906 1673 -2.115    8  3.581    8 -1.400    9 -1.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  3.920  3.441 -2.052 -1.094
Andrews                 12 10 1529 1454 -1.535    9  3.447    9 -1.511    8 -1.424    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  3.780  3.306 -2.418 -0.430
Cal Miramar              2  5  488  603 -0.935   10  3.395   10 -1.530   13 -2.029    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  3.605  3.636 -1.696 -2.361
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Vermont Tech            22  8 2576 2252 -2.265   11  3.315   11 -1.616   11 -1.758    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  3.614  3.657 -1.337 -2.179
Penn St-York            15  8 1788 1564 -2.138   12  3.107   12 -1.840   10 -1.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.399  3.481 -1.890 -1.256
Camp U-Harrodsburg       6  9 1153 1273 -1.674   13  2.972   13 -1.960   16 -2.084    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.191  3.592 -1.944 -2.225
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14  8 1730 1611 -2.333   14  2.964   14 -1.970   17 -2.093    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.185  3.574 -2.028 -2.158
Penn St-Beaver          14  9 1596 1470 -2.288   15  2.888   15 -2.058   14 -2.048    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.123  3.322 -2.981 -1.114
Warren Wilson           11 19 2709 2922 -1.633   16  2.885   16 -2.060   12 -1.971    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.122  3.891 -0.460 -3.481
Penn St-Brandywine      14 11 1941 1917 -2.301   17  2.833   17 -2.116   22 -2.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.052  3.599 -2.120 -2.466
Cincinnati-Clermont     12  6 1512 1371 -2.537   18  2.832   18 -2.117   15 -2.066    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.055  3.615 -1.825 -2.307
Penn St-Shenango        14 11 1770 1761 -2.279   19  2.829   19 -2.120   19 -2.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.040  3.415 -2.761 -1.605
East-West                2 28 2169 2850 -0.648   20  2.680   20 -2.265   18 -2.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  2.915  3.693 -1.548 -2.708
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Fayette         10 13 1701 1850 -2.181   21  2.662   21 -2.296   23 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.849  3.589 -2.266 -2.522
Wright St-Lake           7 19 2115 2518 -1.608   22  2.661   22 -2.297   24 -2.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  2.864  3.810 -1.318 -3.556
Davis College           12  7 1529 1460 -2.914   23  2.599   23 -2.363   28 -2.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  2.727  3.604 -2.593 -2.977
Central Maine CC        15  9 1984 1833 -2.801   24  2.529   24 -2.446   25 -2.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  2.661  3.586 -2.484 -2.711
Penn St-Hazleton        10 12 1552 1519 -2.274   25  2.510   25 -2.467   21 -2.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.677  3.397 -2.909 -1.606
Penn St-Schuylkill       9 16 1774 1959 -2.361   26  2.334   26 -2.693   30 -2.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.386  3.526 -3.028 -2.758
Kent St-Tuscarawas       5 19 1692 2073 -1.905   27  2.303   27 -2.731   29 -2.802    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.338  3.589 -2.673 -2.932
Maine-Machias           11 17 2228 2273 -2.566   28  2.145   28 -2.932   26 -2.624    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.219  3.642 -2.267 -2.981
Albany Pharmacy          8 12 1536 1597 -2.707   29  2.085   29 -3.007   27 -2.770    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.158  3.578 -2.688 -2.851
St Joseph VT             5 21 1959 2476 -2.216   30  2.073   30 -3.020   35 -3.491    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.047  3.758 -2.616 -4.367
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    5 14 1358 1536 -2.438   31  2.043   31 -3.057   31 -3.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.059  3.551 -3.072 -3.006
Camp U-Somerset          2 13 1194 1401 -1.666   32  1.967   32 -3.098   20 -2.191    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.159  3.757 -1.319 -3.062
SUNY-ESF                 7  9 1225 1275 -3.045   33  1.947   33 -3.136   33 -3.260    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  1.983  3.577 -3.181 -3.339
Paul Smith's             8 19 2145 2309 -2.854   34  1.687   34 -3.537   32 -3.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.705  3.681 -2.672 -3.731
Penn St-New Kensington   5 16 1654 1956 -2.930   35  1.654   35 -3.577   42 -3.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  1.650  3.828 -2.708 -5.121
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4 20 2003 2347 -2.746   36  1.474   36 -3.733   38 -3.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  1.355  3.925 -1.918 -5.273
Five Towns               7  7 1154 1109 -3.715   37  1.453   37 -3.773   37 -3.535    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  1.567  3.726 -2.805 -4.265
Maine-Augusta            6 22 2139 2437 -2.786   38  1.451   38 -3.774   34 -3.407    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  1.371  3.687 -2.851 -3.963
Christendom              6 13 1213 1412 -3.259   39  1.447   39 -3.789   36 -3.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  1.329  3.379 -4.240 -2.805
Williamson Trade         1 17 1041 1442 -2.416   40  1.330   40 -4.059   40 -3.743    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  1.191  3.352 -4.563 -2.922
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Unity                    3 17 1366 1714 -3.193   41  1.210   41 -4.235   43 -3.975    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  1.086  3.527 -4.104 -3.846
Southern St OH           3 14 1128 1372 -3.326   42  1.180   42 -4.313   44 -3.995    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.042  3.450 -4.436 -3.554
Georgia NW Tech          2  5  527  564 -3.776   43  1.169   43 -4.339   41 -3.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  1.040  3.525 -4.039 -3.760
Penn St-DuBois           1 19 1335 1670 -2.717   44  1.102   44 -4.409   39 -3.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  1.020  3.547 -3.785 -3.689
Vaughn                   3  6  591  793 -4.994   45  0.915   45 -4.495   46 -5.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  0.847  3.569 -5.425 -5.510
Crown TN                 2 15 1240 1586 -3.819   46  0.592   46 -4.884   45 -5.010    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  0.600  3.645 -4.641 -5.379
Hampshire                0 16  798 1605 -3.589   47  0.318   47 -5.662   49 -6.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  0.282  3.374 -7.648 -6.175
King's NY                2 12  783 1149 -5.149   48  0.231   48 -5.887   48 -6.281    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.283  3.340 -7.147 -5.415
Culinary Institute       2  9  583  839 -5.393   49  0.188   49 -5.979   47 -6.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   49  0.243  3.250 -7.243 -4.855
Webb Institute           0  4  173  294 -6.089   50  0.000   50 -6.471   50 -6.917    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   50  0.000  3.223 -8.206 -5.628


PSUAC: strength=-2.430 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    18  4 1791 1485 -1.836    4  4.119    4 -0.961    5 -1.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  4.558  3.530 -1.161 -0.919
Penn St-Mont Alto       19  6 1906 1673 -2.115    8  3.581    8 -1.400    9 -1.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  3.920  3.441 -2.052 -1.094
Penn St-York            15  8 1788 1564 -2.138   12  3.107   12 -1.840   10 -1.573    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.399  3.481 -1.890 -1.256
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14  8 1730 1611 -2.333   14  2.964   14 -1.970   17 -2.093    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.185  3.574 -2.028 -2.158
Penn St-Beaver          14  9 1596 1470 -2.288   15  2.888   15 -2.058   14 -2.048    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.123  3.322 -2.981 -1.114
Penn St-Brandywine      14 11 1941 1917 -2.301   17  2.833   17 -2.116   22 -2.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.052  3.599 -2.120 -2.466
Penn St-Shenango        14 11 1770 1761 -2.279   19  2.829   19 -2.120   19 -2.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.040  3.415 -2.761 -1.605
Penn St-Fayette         10 13 1701 1850 -2.181   21  2.662   21 -2.296   23 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  2.849  3.589 -2.266 -2.522
Penn St-Hazleton        10 12 1552 1519 -2.274   25  2.510   25 -2.467   21 -2.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.677  3.397 -2.909 -1.606
Penn St-Schuylkill       9 16 1774 1959 -2.361   26  2.334   26 -2.693   30 -2.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.386  3.526 -3.028 -2.758
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    5 14 1358 1536 -2.438   31  2.043   31 -3.057   31 -3.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.059  3.551 -3.072 -3.006
Penn St-New Kensington   5 16 1654 1956 -2.930   35  1.654   35 -3.577   42 -3.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  1.650  3.828 -2.708 -5.121
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4 20 2003 2347 -2.746   36  1.474   36 -3.733   38 -3.596    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  1.355  3.925 -1.918 -5.273
Penn St-DuBois           1 19 1335 1670 -2.717   44  1.102   44 -4.409   39 -3.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  1.020  3.547 -3.785 -3.689

Yankee Small: strength=-2.856 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Southern Maine CC       20  2 1870 1327 -2.276    5  4.002    5 -1.039    4 -1.025    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  4.503  3.406 -1.641 -0.408
New Hampshire Tech      21  4 2486 1941 -2.209    6  3.724    6 -1.275    6 -1.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  4.166  3.812 -0.169 -2.429
Vermont Tech            22  8 2576 2252 -2.265   11  3.315   11 -1.616   11 -1.758    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  3.614  3.657 -1.337 -2.179
Central Maine CC        15  9 1984 1833 -2.801   24  2.529   24 -2.446   25 -2.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  2.661  3.586 -2.484 -2.711
Maine-Machias           11 17 2228 2273 -2.566   28  2.145   28 -2.932   26 -2.624    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.219  3.642 -2.267 -2.981
St Joseph VT             5 21 1959 2476 -2.216   30  2.073   30 -3.020   35 -3.491    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.047  3.758 -2.616 -4.367
Paul Smith's             8 19 2145 2309 -2.854   34  1.687   34 -3.537   32 -3.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.705  3.681 -2.672 -3.731
Maine-Augusta            6 22 2139 2437 -2.786   38  1.451   38 -3.774   34 -3.407    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  1.371  3.687 -2.851 -3.963
Unity                    3 17 1366 1714 -3.193   41  1.210   41 -4.235   43 -3.975    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  1.086  3.527 -4.104 -3.846
Hampshire                0 16  798 1605 -3.589   47  0.318   47 -5.662   49 -6.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  0.282  3.374 -7.648 -6.175

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PSUAC           152 167 0.476    1 -2.430
Yankee Small    111 135 0.451    2 -2.856

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.256 points in main ratings
     0.030 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Feb 18 17:45:38 2019

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