Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Berkeley-NY             21  6 2462 2040 -1.310    1  4.956    1 -0.482    3 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1  5.654  3.691 -0.399 -1.569
Villa Maria             25  4 2614 2207 -1.707    2  4.708    2 -0.680    1 -0.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  5.412  3.694 -0.314 -1.512
Johnson & Wales NC      21 10 2591 2514 -1.248    3  4.642    3 -0.743    2 -0.982    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  5.292  3.659 -0.538 -1.426
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    22  5 2117 1776 -1.958    4  4.267    4 -1.083    5 -1.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  4.871  3.474 -1.557 -0.888
Southern Maine CC       22  4 2194 1648 -2.174    5  4.076    5 -1.231    4 -1.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  4.736  3.439 -1.676 -0.728
New Hampshire Tech      23  6 2797 2252 -2.204    6  3.793    6 -1.429    7 -1.480    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  4.377  3.793 -0.425 -2.534
Central Penn            13 15 2063 2164 -1.267    7  3.751    7 -1.469    6 -1.387    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  4.324  3.544 -1.435 -1.338
Penn St-York            20  9 2190 1962 -2.038    8  3.602    8 -1.573    9 -1.592    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  4.116  3.448 -2.029 -1.154
Vermont Tech            24 10 2883 2553 -2.192    9  3.549    9 -1.624   10 -1.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  4.027  3.651 -1.310 -2.127
Andrews                 12 11 1593 1525 -1.600   10  3.491   10 -1.649    8 -1.532    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  4.020  3.304 -2.518 -0.547
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Cal Miramar              2  5  488  603 -1.077   11  3.475   11 -1.664   15 -2.213    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.885  3.639 -1.855 -2.571
Penn St-Mont Alto       20  9 2192 1983 -2.210   12  3.420   12 -1.725   11 -1.838    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  3.908  3.470 -2.188 -1.488
Camp U-Harrodsburg       7 12 1459 1628 -1.818   14  2.982   13 -2.154   22 -2.387    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  3.403  3.596 -2.217 -2.557
Warren Wilson           11 20 2790 3017 -1.709   13  2.995   14 -2.165   13 -2.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.436  3.889 -0.578 -3.601
Cincinnati-Clermont     13  6 1598 1419 -2.643   15  2.963   15 -2.177   14 -2.131    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  3.408  3.594 -1.970 -2.292
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14  9 1791 1675 -2.459   16  2.953   16 -2.185   17 -2.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.398  3.570 -2.192 -2.312
Penn St-Shenango        15 12 1874 1887 -2.389   18  2.900   17 -2.217   20 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.356  3.390 -3.042 -1.714
Penn St-Beaver          14 10 1648 1539 -2.401   17  2.914   18 -2.231   16 -2.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.376  3.319 -3.178 -1.317
Penn St-Brandywine      14 12 2014 1994 -2.374   19  2.862   19 -2.261   21 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.346  3.606 -2.165 -2.591
Davis College           13  7 1597 1523 -3.002   20  2.675   20 -2.378   27 -2.861    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  3.073  3.600 -2.673 -3.050
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
East-West                2 28 2169 2850 -0.770   21  2.664   21 -2.386   18 -2.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  3.134  3.693 -1.671 -2.861
Wright St-Lake           7 19 2115 2518 -1.713   22  2.661   22 -2.395   24 -2.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  3.099  3.814 -1.400 -3.701
Penn St-Fayette         10 13 1701 1850 -2.320   23  2.633   23 -2.429   23 -2.539    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  3.028  3.591 -2.391 -2.687
Central Maine CC        15 10 2065 1916 -2.830   24  2.519   24 -2.573   25 -2.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  2.862  3.581 -2.520 -2.737
Penn St-Hazleton        10 13 1604 1574 -2.335   25  2.495   25 -2.597   19 -2.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.906  3.386 -3.003 -1.640
Penn St-Schuylkill       9 16 1774 1959 -2.479   26  2.305   26 -2.817   30 -3.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.638  3.530 -3.120 -2.911
Kent St-Tuscarawas       5 19 1692 2073 -2.027   27  2.218   27 -2.852   29 -2.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  2.581  3.595 -2.745 -3.080
Camp U-Somerset          3 16 1530 1759 -1.637   28  2.139   28 -2.953   12 -2.067    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  2.620  3.752 -1.207 -2.928
Maine-Machias           11 17 2228 2273 -2.675   29  2.056   29 -3.040   26 -2.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.445  3.643 -2.368 -3.113
Albany Pharmacy          8 12 1536 1597 -2.816   30  2.010   30 -3.099   28 -2.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  2.370  3.580 -2.792 -2.995
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Joseph VT             5 21 1959 2476 -2.317   31  1.992   31 -3.120   35 -3.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.260  3.761 -2.681 -4.485
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    5 14 1358 1536 -2.552   32  1.955   32 -3.162   31 -3.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.264  3.558 -3.143 -3.160
SUNY-ESF                 7  9 1225 1275 -3.165   33  1.849   33 -3.253   33 -3.382    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  2.161  3.579 -3.286 -3.479
Paul Smith's             8 19 2145 2309 -2.964   34  1.587   34 -3.643   32 -3.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.868  3.682 -2.761 -3.856
Penn St-New Kensington   5 16 1654 1956 -3.064   35  1.528   35 -3.708   43 -4.038    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  1.770  3.829 -2.815 -5.262
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4 20 2003 2347 -2.856   36  1.422   36 -3.846   37 -3.703    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  1.550  3.931 -1.984 -5.422
Maine-Augusta            6 22 2139 2437 -2.895   37  1.403   37 -3.876   34 -3.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  1.570  3.686 -2.955 -4.080
Williamson Trade         3 17 1210 1546 -2.802   39  1.391   38 -3.893   38 -3.708    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  1.522  3.369 -4.451 -2.966
Five Towns               7  7 1154 1109 -3.839   38  1.394   39 -3.894   36 -3.647    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  1.721  3.728 -2.893 -4.400
Christendom              6 14 1261 1487 -3.473   40  1.288   40 -4.067   39 -3.813    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  1.420  3.367 -4.565 -3.061
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Southern St OH           4 14 1211 1436 -3.507   41  1.155   41 -4.324   42 -4.007    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  1.244  3.447 -4.447 -3.566
Unity                    3 17 1366 1714 -3.299   42  1.139   42 -4.345   44 -4.063    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.237  3.528 -4.178 -3.948
Georgia NW Tech          2  5  527  564 -3.843   43  1.122   43 -4.405   41 -3.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  1.204  3.525 -4.044 -3.787
Penn St-DuBois           1 19 1335 1670 -2.851   44  1.032   44 -4.538   40 -3.863    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  1.152  3.550 -3.888 -3.839
Vaughn                   3  6  591  793 -5.136   45  0.994   45 -4.622   46 -5.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  0.937  3.569 -5.471 -5.586
Crown TN                 2 17 1378 1770 -3.839   46  0.752   46 -4.997   45 -4.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  0.724  3.639 -4.579 -5.291
Hampshire                0 16  798 1605 -3.685   47  0.349   47 -5.768   50 -6.933    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.354  3.374 -7.657 -6.208
King's NY                2 12  783 1149 -5.289   48  0.251   48 -6.022   48 -6.342    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   48  0.272  3.340 -7.195 -5.489
Culinary Institute       2  9  583  839 -5.533   49  0.213   49 -6.115   47 -6.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   49  0.241  3.251 -7.270 -4.912
Webb Institute           0  4  173  294 -6.227   50  0.000   50 -6.604   49 -6.646    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   50  0.000  3.221 -7.930 -5.363


PSUAC: strength=-2.560 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    22  5 2117 1776 -1.958    4  4.267    4 -1.083    5 -1.223    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  4.871  3.474 -1.557 -0.888
Penn St-York            20  9 2190 1962 -2.038    8  3.602    8 -1.573    9 -1.592    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  4.116  3.448 -2.029 -1.154
Penn St-Mont Alto       20  9 2192 1983 -2.210   12  3.420   12 -1.725   11 -1.838    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  3.908  3.470 -2.188 -1.488
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   14  9 1791 1675 -2.459   16  2.953   16 -2.185   17 -2.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  3.398  3.570 -2.192 -2.312
Penn St-Shenango        15 12 1874 1887 -2.389   18  2.900   17 -2.217   20 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  3.356  3.390 -3.042 -1.714
Penn St-Beaver          14 10 1648 1539 -2.401   17  2.914   18 -2.231   16 -2.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  3.376  3.319 -3.178 -1.317
Penn St-Brandywine      14 12 2014 1994 -2.374   19  2.862   19 -2.261   21 -2.378    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  3.346  3.606 -2.165 -2.591
Penn St-Fayette         10 13 1701 1850 -2.320   23  2.633   23 -2.429   23 -2.539    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  3.028  3.591 -2.391 -2.687
Penn St-Hazleton        10 13 1604 1574 -2.335   25  2.495   25 -2.597   19 -2.322    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  2.906  3.386 -3.003 -1.640
Penn St-Schuylkill       9 16 1774 1959 -2.479   26  2.305   26 -2.817   30 -3.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  2.638  3.530 -3.120 -2.911
Penn St-Lehigh Valley    5 14 1358 1536 -2.552   32  1.955   32 -3.162   31 -3.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.264  3.558 -3.143 -3.160
Penn St-New Kensington   5 16 1654 1956 -3.064   35  1.528   35 -3.708   43 -4.038    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  1.770  3.829 -2.815 -5.262
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4 20 2003 2347 -2.856   36  1.422   36 -3.846   37 -3.703    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  1.550  3.931 -1.984 -5.422
Penn St-DuBois           1 19 1335 1670 -2.851   44  1.032   44 -4.538   40 -3.863    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  1.152  3.550 -3.888 -3.839

Yankee Small: strength=-2.954 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Southern Maine CC       22  4 2194 1648 -2.174    5  4.076    5 -1.231    4 -1.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  4.736  3.439 -1.676 -0.728
New Hampshire Tech      23  6 2797 2252 -2.204    6  3.793    6 -1.429    7 -1.480    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  4.377  3.793 -0.425 -2.534
Vermont Tech            24 10 2883 2553 -2.192    9  3.549    9 -1.624   10 -1.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  4.027  3.651 -1.310 -2.127
Central Maine CC        15 10 2065 1916 -2.830   24  2.519   24 -2.573   25 -2.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  2.862  3.581 -2.520 -2.737
Maine-Machias           11 17 2228 2273 -2.675   29  2.056   29 -3.040   26 -2.741    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  2.445  3.643 -2.368 -3.113
St Joseph VT             5 21 1959 2476 -2.317   31  1.992   31 -3.120   35 -3.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.260  3.761 -2.681 -4.485
Paul Smith's             8 19 2145 2309 -2.964   34  1.587   34 -3.643   32 -3.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  1.868  3.682 -2.761 -3.856
Maine-Augusta            6 22 2139 2437 -2.895   37  1.403   37 -3.876   34 -3.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  1.570  3.686 -2.955 -4.080
Unity                    3 17 1366 1714 -3.299   42  1.139   42 -4.345   44 -4.063    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.237  3.528 -4.178 -3.948
Hampshire                0 16  798 1605 -3.685   47  0.349   47 -5.768   50 -6.933    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.354  3.374 -7.657 -6.208

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE        W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PSUAC           163 177 0.479    1 -2.560
Yankee Small    117 142 0.452    2 -2.954

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.254 points in main ratings
     0.029 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sat Apr 13 15:32:26 2019

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