Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     73 32 10664 10189  0.098 55.324    1  2.452    1  0.553    3  0.377    1 0.5541  3.805  0.236  0.518  0.000
ORLANDO       69 27  9778  9043  0.043 47.943    2  2.446    2  0.544    1  0.594    2 0.5531  3.812  0.486  0.701  0.000
CLEVELAND     67 26  9475  8926  0.014 45.710    3  2.418    3  0.532    4  0.306    3 0.5518  3.825  0.260  0.352  0.000
PHOENIX       64 34 10753 10277  0.058 50.084    4  2.211    4  0.404    2  0.421    4 0.5408  3.981  1.154 -0.313  0.000
DALLAS        57 31  8921  8701  0.021 44.344    5  2.097    5  0.352   10  0.170    5 0.5358  3.823  0.116  0.224  0.000
BOSTON        65 41 10389 10022  0.088 55.589    6  2.054    6  0.331    6  0.294    6 0.5340  3.770 -0.010  0.599  0.000
UTAH          57 35  9618  9202  0.058 47.082    7  2.024    8  0.311    5  0.303    7 0.5331  3.871  0.484  0.122  0.000
DENVER        55 33  9385  9057  0.042 44.747    8  2.019    7  0.314    9  0.208    8 0.5321  3.917  0.614 -0.198  0.000
ATLANTA       57 36  9322  9015  0.025 46.778    9  1.956    9  0.278   11  0.133    9 0.5274  3.812  0.030  0.237  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 52 36  8885  8609  0.040 44.803   10  1.892   10  0.237    8  0.223   10 0.5250  3.813  0.120  0.326  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   54 38  9273  8890  0.047 46.801   11  1.891   11  0.232    7  0.282   11 0.5250  3.795  0.098  0.466  0.000
PORTLAND      52 36  8603  8394  0.021 44.321   12  1.867   12  0.221   12  0.127   12 0.5228  3.737 -0.330  0.583  0.000
MIAMI         48 39  8352  8206 -0.006 43.156   13  1.655   13  0.105   13  0.104   13 0.5103  3.735 -0.359  0.568  0.000
MILWAUKEE     49 40  8639  8526 -0.010 44.106   14  1.643   14  0.100   14  0.094   14 0.5100  3.753 -0.288  0.475  0.000
HOUSTON       42 40  8395  8425  0.007 41.532   15  1.523   15  0.033   16 -0.065   15 0.5039  3.867  0.093 -0.222  0.000
CHARLOTTE     44 42  8153  8074  0.002 43.105   16  1.508   16  0.022   15  0.049   16 0.5014  3.716 -0.502  0.600  0.000
MEMPHIS       40 42  8404  8528 -0.021 40.994   17  1.403   17 -0.040   18 -0.129   17 0.4959  3.877  0.078 -0.337  0.000
CHICAGO       42 45  8478  8658 -0.006 44.090   18  1.402   18 -0.040   17 -0.096   18 0.4958  3.799 -0.263  0.070  0.000
TORONTO       40 42  8534  8680 -0.039 40.491   19  1.370   19 -0.058   20 -0.161   19 0.4931  3.938  0.351 -0.672  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   37 45  8220  8422 -0.023 41.164   20  1.244   20 -0.126   21 -0.178   20 0.4873  3.846 -0.120 -0.236  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANA       32 50  8263  8510 -0.054 40.384   21  0.973   21 -0.297   19 -0.138   21 0.4692  3.893  0.149 -0.426  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   29 53  7849  8370 -0.040 41.531   22  0.852   22 -0.362   28 -0.465   22 0.4636  3.807 -0.593 -0.337  0.000
NEW YORK      29 53  8361  8666 -0.067 40.097   23  0.801   23 -0.394   24 -0.299   23 0.4592  3.906  0.055 -0.653  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  27 55  7994  8322 -0.052 40.623   24  0.730   24 -0.432   23 -0.297   26 0.4549  3.828 -0.325 -0.269  0.000
DETROIT       27 55  7709  8128 -0.054 40.802   25  0.718   25 -0.436   27 -0.370   25 0.4554  3.766 -0.693 -0.047  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  26 56  8922  9217 -0.019 41.468   26  0.703   26 -0.448   22 -0.209   24 0.4561  4.035  0.809 -1.226  0.000
WASHINGTON    26 56  7894  8282 -0.055 40.798   27  0.686   27 -0.456   26 -0.348   28 0.4520  3.809 -0.469 -0.227  0.000
SACRAMENTO    25 57  8200  8558 -0.028 41.472   28  0.649   28 -0.480   25 -0.317   27 0.4525  3.859 -0.197 -0.437  0.000
MINNESOTA     15 67  8051  8838 -0.046 41.943   29  0.217   29 -0.802   30 -0.576   29 0.4235  3.884 -0.334 -0.819  0.000
NEW JERSEY    12 70  7574  8323 -0.071 41.105   30  0.000   30 -0.936   29 -0.525   30 0.4109  3.775 -0.803 -0.246  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     73 32 10664 10189  0.098 55.324    1  2.452    1  0.553    3  0.377    1 0.5541  3.805  0.236  0.518  0.000
PHOENIX       64 34 10753 10277  0.058 50.084    4  2.211    4  0.404    2  0.421    4 0.5408  3.981  1.154 -0.313  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   29 53  7849  8370 -0.040 41.531   22  0.852   22 -0.362   28 -0.465   22 0.4636  3.807 -0.593 -0.337  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  26 56  8922  9217 -0.019 41.468   26  0.703   26 -0.448   22 -0.209   24 0.4561  4.035  0.809 -1.226  0.000
SACRAMENTO    25 57  8200  8558 -0.028 41.472   28  0.649   28 -0.480   25 -0.317   27 0.4525  3.859 -0.197 -0.437  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
UTAH          57 35  9618  9202  0.058 47.082    7  2.024    8  0.311    5  0.303    7 0.5331  3.871  0.484  0.122  0.000
DENVER        55 33  9385  9057  0.042 44.747    8  2.019    7  0.314    9  0.208    8 0.5321  3.917  0.614 -0.198  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 52 36  8885  8609  0.040 44.803   10  1.892   10  0.237    8  0.223   10 0.5250  3.813  0.120  0.326  0.000
PORTLAND      52 36  8603  8394  0.021 44.321   12  1.867   12  0.221   12  0.127   12 0.5228  3.737 -0.330  0.583  0.000
MINNESOTA     15 67  8051  8838 -0.046 41.943   29  0.217   29 -0.802   30 -0.576   29 0.4235  3.884 -0.334 -0.819  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        57 31  8921  8701  0.021 44.344    5  2.097    5  0.352   10  0.170    5 0.5358  3.823  0.116  0.224  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   54 38  9273  8890  0.047 46.801   11  1.891   11  0.232    7  0.282   11 0.5250  3.795  0.098  0.466  0.000
HOUSTON       42 40  8395  8425  0.007 41.532   15  1.523   15  0.033   16 -0.065   15 0.5039  3.867  0.093 -0.222  0.000
MEMPHIS       40 42  8404  8528 -0.021 40.994   17  1.403   17 -0.040   18 -0.129   17 0.4959  3.877  0.078 -0.337  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   37 45  8220  8422 -0.023 41.164   20  1.244   20 -0.126   21 -0.178   20 0.4873  3.846 -0.120 -0.236  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     67 26  9475  8926  0.014 45.710    3  2.418    3  0.532    4  0.306    3 0.5518  3.825  0.260  0.352  0.000
MILWAUKEE     49 40  8639  8526 -0.010 44.106   14  1.643   14  0.100   14  0.094   14 0.5100  3.753 -0.288  0.475  0.000
CHICAGO       42 45  8478  8658 -0.006 44.090   18  1.402   18 -0.040   17 -0.096   18 0.4958  3.799 -0.263  0.070  0.000
INDIANA       32 50  8263  8510 -0.054 40.384   21  0.973   21 -0.297   19 -0.138   21 0.4692  3.893  0.149 -0.426  0.000
DETROIT       27 55  7709  8128 -0.054 40.802   25  0.718   25 -0.436   27 -0.370   25 0.4554  3.766 -0.693 -0.047  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       69 27  9778  9043  0.043 47.943    2  2.446    2  0.544    1  0.594    2 0.5531  3.812  0.486  0.701  0.000
ATLANTA       57 36  9322  9015  0.025 46.778    9  1.956    9  0.278   11  0.133    9 0.5274  3.812  0.030  0.237  0.000
MIAMI         48 39  8352  8206 -0.006 43.156   13  1.655   13  0.105   13  0.104   13 0.5103  3.735 -0.359  0.568  0.000
CHARLOTTE     44 42  8153  8074  0.002 43.105   16  1.508   16  0.022   15  0.049   16 0.5014  3.716 -0.502  0.600  0.000
WASHINGTON    26 56  7894  8282 -0.055 40.798   27  0.686   27 -0.456   26 -0.348   28 0.4520  3.809 -0.469 -0.227  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        65 41 10389 10022  0.088 55.589    6  2.054    6  0.331    6  0.294    6 0.5340  3.770 -0.010  0.599  0.000
TORONTO       40 42  8534  8680 -0.039 40.491   19  1.370   19 -0.058   20 -0.161   19 0.4931  3.938  0.351 -0.672  0.000
NEW YORK      29 53  8361  8666 -0.067 40.097   23  0.801   23 -0.394   24 -0.299   23 0.4592  3.906  0.055 -0.653  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  27 55  7994  8322 -0.052 40.623   24  0.730   24 -0.432   23 -0.297   26 0.4549  3.828 -0.325 -0.269  0.000
NEW JERSEY    12 70  7574  8323 -0.071 41.105   30  0.000   30 -0.936   29 -0.525   30 0.4109  3.775 -0.803 -0.246  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 244 200 0.550    1  0.133
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 207 0.527    2  0.101
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 230 196 0.540    3  0.038
PACIFIC DIVISION   217 232 0.483    4 -0.067
CENTRAL DIVISION   217 216 0.501    5 -0.072
ATLANTIC DIVISION  173 261 0.399    6 -0.260

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.234 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.025 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 10 10:29:43 2010
games through: Thu Jun 17 2010

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.