Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     76 20  9589  8738  0.062 48.603    1  2.697    1  0.775    1  0.608    1 0.5713  3.752  0.255  0.961  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   81 24 11123 10329  0.080 54.169    2  2.629    2  0.734    2  0.605    2 0.5701  3.879  0.854  0.356  0.000
BOSTON        69 27  9705  9089  0.059 49.160    3  2.339    3  0.570    5  0.339    3 0.5546  3.774  0.086  0.592  0.000
ORLANDO       72 34 10613 10020  0.124 56.768    4  2.264    4  0.527    3  0.457    4 0.5514  3.793  0.293  0.621  0.000
DENVER        64 34 10282  9864  0.035 49.828    5  2.043    5  0.395    4  0.349    5 0.5402  3.898  0.692  0.005  0.000
HOUSTON       60 35  9259  8950  0.065 49.554    6  1.978    6  0.362    7  0.281    6 0.5368  3.749 -0.087  0.649  0.000
PORTLAND      56 32  8666  8270  0.016 44.054    7  1.911    7  0.321    6  0.325    7 0.5325  3.758 -0.000  0.650  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   55 32  8410  8132 -0.023 42.792    8  1.839    8  0.284    8  0.160    8 0.5290  3.721 -0.337  0.656  0.000
DALLAS        55 37  9359  9206  0.010 46.693    9  1.761    9  0.241    9  0.129    9 0.5246  3.854  0.256  0.001  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   50 37  8278  8272 -0.004 44.194   10  1.643   10  0.173   21 -0.149   10 0.5183  3.737 -0.570  0.273  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
UTAH          49 38  8979  8808  0.013 44.074   11  1.606   11  0.147   10  0.101   11 0.5156  3.864  0.279 -0.077  0.000
ATLANTA       51 42  8970  8919  0.024 47.984   12  1.572   12  0.131   14  0.001   12 0.5128  3.779 -0.228  0.231  0.000
PHOENIX       46 36  8974  8816 -0.033 40.364   13  1.523   13  0.104   11  0.068   13 0.5108  4.002  0.940 -0.803  0.000
MIAMI         46 43  8678  8651  0.004 45.428   14  1.405   14  0.039   12  0.043   14 0.5041  3.778 -0.189  0.274  0.000
CHICAGO       44 45  9136  9189  0.025 46.323   15  1.349   15  0.007   13  0.031   15 0.5006  3.877  0.270 -0.208  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  43 45  8518  8558  0.015 45.491   16  1.330   16 -0.006   15 -0.041   16 0.4980  3.785 -0.244  0.162  0.000
DETROIT       39 47  8039  8141  0.009 44.460   17  1.180   17 -0.093   18 -0.088   17 0.4893  3.708 -0.641  0.465  0.000
INDIANA       35 46  8505  8603 -0.006 41.397   18  1.043   18 -0.167   16 -0.058   18 0.4830  3.952  0.559 -0.676  0.000
CHARLOTTE     35 47  7677  7781 -0.033 41.166   19  0.986   19 -0.198   17 -0.082   19 0.4789  3.705 -0.650  0.486  0.000
MILWAUKEE     34 48  8142  8231 -0.017 41.556   20  0.954   20 -0.221   19 -0.118   20 0.4773  3.838 -0.065 -0.170  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY    34 48  8044  8244 -0.036 41.321   21  0.930   21 -0.230   20 -0.148   21 0.4762  3.823 -0.169 -0.127  0.000
TORONTO       33 49  8121  8352 -0.027 41.632   22  0.903   22 -0.247   23 -0.199   22 0.4743  3.846 -0.109 -0.289  0.000
NEW YORK      32 50  8627  8841 -0.026 41.687   23  0.851   23 -0.281   22 -0.170   23 0.4714  3.971  0.540 -0.881  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  29 53  8905  9202 -0.061 40.956   24  0.642   24 -0.399   24 -0.259   24 0.4613  4.025  0.737 -1.255  0.000
MINNESOTA     24 57  7914  8310 -0.046 41.238   25  0.447   25 -0.519   26 -0.347   25 0.4498  3.834 -0.314 -0.380  0.000
MEMPHIS       24 58  7698  8146 -0.052 41.728   26  0.412   26 -0.538   25 -0.312   26 0.4487  3.763 -0.615 -0.009  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 23 59  7952  8452 -0.070 41.234   27  0.334   27 -0.583   27 -0.377   27 0.4438  3.831 -0.359 -0.395  0.000
WASHINGTON    19 63  7877  8489 -0.048 42.188   28  0.165   28 -0.678   28 -0.479   28 0.4338  3.847 -0.386 -0.573  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 19 63  7799  8518 -0.072 41.912   29  0.135   29 -0.694   30 -0.615   29 0.4336  3.808 -0.706 -0.524  0.000
SACRAMENTO    17 65  8248  8966 -0.085 41.502   30  0.000   30 -0.783   29 -0.577   30 0.4265  3.914 -0.153 -1.001  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. LAKERS   81 24 11123 10329  0.080 54.169    2  2.629    2  0.734    2  0.605    2 0.5701  3.879  0.854  0.356  0.000
PHOENIX       46 36  8974  8816 -0.033 40.364   13  1.523   13  0.104   11  0.068   13 0.5108  4.002  0.940 -0.803  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  29 53  8905  9202 -0.061 40.956   24  0.642   24 -0.399   24 -0.259   24 0.4613  4.025  0.737 -1.255  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 19 63  7799  8518 -0.072 41.912   29  0.135   29 -0.694   30 -0.615   29 0.4336  3.808 -0.706 -0.524  0.000
SACRAMENTO    17 65  8248  8966 -0.085 41.502   30  0.000   30 -0.783   29 -0.577   30 0.4265  3.914 -0.153 -1.001  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        64 34 10282  9864  0.035 49.828    5  2.043    5  0.395    4  0.349    5 0.5402  3.898  0.692  0.005  0.000
PORTLAND      56 32  8666  8270  0.016 44.054    7  1.911    7  0.321    6  0.325    7 0.5325  3.758 -0.000  0.650  0.000
UTAH          49 38  8979  8808  0.013 44.074   11  1.606   11  0.147   10  0.101   11 0.5156  3.864  0.279 -0.077  0.000
MINNESOTA     24 57  7914  8310 -0.046 41.238   25  0.447   25 -0.519   26 -0.347   25 0.4498  3.834 -0.314 -0.380  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 23 59  7952  8452 -0.070 41.234   27  0.334   27 -0.583   27 -0.377   27 0.4438  3.831 -0.359 -0.395  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON       60 35  9259  8950  0.065 49.554    6  1.978    6  0.362    7  0.281    6 0.5368  3.749 -0.087  0.649  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   55 32  8410  8132 -0.023 42.792    8  1.839    8  0.284    8  0.160    8 0.5290  3.721 -0.337  0.656  0.000
DALLAS        55 37  9359  9206  0.010 46.693    9  1.761    9  0.241    9  0.129    9 0.5246  3.854  0.256  0.001  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   50 37  8278  8272 -0.004 44.194   10  1.643   10  0.173   21 -0.149   10 0.5183  3.737 -0.570  0.273  0.000
MEMPHIS       24 58  7698  8146 -0.052 41.728   26  0.412   26 -0.538   25 -0.312   26 0.4487  3.763 -0.615 -0.009  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     76 20  9589  8738  0.062 48.603    1  2.697    1  0.775    1  0.608    1 0.5713  3.752  0.255  0.961  0.000
CHICAGO       44 45  9136  9189  0.025 46.323   15  1.349   15  0.007   13  0.031   15 0.5006  3.877  0.270 -0.208  0.000
DETROIT       39 47  8039  8141  0.009 44.460   17  1.180   17 -0.093   18 -0.088   17 0.4893  3.708 -0.641  0.465  0.000
INDIANA       35 46  8505  8603 -0.006 41.397   18  1.043   18 -0.167   16 -0.058   18 0.4830  3.952  0.559 -0.676  0.000
MILWAUKEE     34 48  8142  8231 -0.017 41.556   20  0.954   20 -0.221   19 -0.118   20 0.4773  3.838 -0.065 -0.170  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       72 34 10613 10020  0.124 56.768    4  2.264    4  0.527    3  0.457    4 0.5514  3.793  0.293  0.621  0.000
ATLANTA       51 42  8970  8919  0.024 47.984   12  1.572   12  0.131   14  0.001   12 0.5128  3.779 -0.228  0.231  0.000
MIAMI         46 43  8678  8651  0.004 45.428   14  1.405   14  0.039   12  0.043   14 0.5041  3.778 -0.189  0.274  0.000
CHARLOTTE     35 47  7677  7781 -0.033 41.166   19  0.986   19 -0.198   17 -0.082   19 0.4789  3.705 -0.650  0.486  0.000
WASHINGTON    19 63  7877  8489 -0.048 42.188   28  0.165   28 -0.678   28 -0.479   28 0.4338  3.847 -0.386 -0.573  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        69 27  9705  9089  0.059 49.160    3  2.339    3  0.570    5  0.339    3 0.5546  3.774  0.086  0.592  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  43 45  8518  8558  0.015 45.491   16  1.330   16 -0.006   15 -0.041   16 0.4980  3.785 -0.244  0.162  0.000
NEW JERSEY    34 48  8044  8244 -0.036 41.321   21  0.930   21 -0.230   20 -0.148   21 0.4762  3.823 -0.169 -0.127  0.000
TORONTO       33 49  8121  8352 -0.027 41.632   22  0.903   22 -0.247   23 -0.199   22 0.4743  3.846 -0.109 -0.289  0.000
NEW YORK      32 50  8627  8841 -0.026 41.687   23  0.851   23 -0.281   22 -0.170   23 0.4714  3.971  0.540 -0.881  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   228 206 0.525    1  0.084
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 244 199 0.551    2  0.040
NORTHWEST DIVISION 216 220 0.495    3 -0.012
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 223 229 0.493    4 -0.023
ATLANTIC DIVISION  211 219 0.491    5 -0.035
PACIFIC DIVISION   192 241 0.443    6 -0.223

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.274 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Aug  2 12:17:27 2009
games through: Sun Jun 14 2009

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.