Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        69 19  8792  8240  0.035 45.419    1  2.072    1  0.677    3  0.321    1 0.5696  3.775  0.136  0.507  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   74 28  9992  9222  0.091 54.531    2  1.876    2  0.568    1  0.529    2 0.5607  3.717  0.078  0.979  0.000
PHOENIX       67 26 10182  9528  0.072 48.946    3  1.822    3  0.541    2  0.456    3 0.5573  3.959  1.170 -0.259  0.000
DETROIT       63 35  9334  8946  0.015 50.458    4  1.446    4  0.313    4  0.296    4 0.5330  3.720 -0.143  0.736  0.000
UTAH          60 39  9986  9736  0.082 53.675    5  1.416    5  0.296    7  0.219    6 0.5319  3.839  0.336  0.101  0.000
HOUSTON       55 34  8564  8188  0.046 46.716    6  1.410    6  0.282    8  0.219    5 0.5320  3.718 -0.231  0.669  0.000
CLEVELAND     62 40  9710  9353  0.009 52.455    7  1.343    7  0.239    5  0.278    7 0.5263  3.716 -0.181  0.736  0.000
CHICAGO       55 37  9024  8602 -0.008 46.460    8  1.277    8  0.197    6  0.275    8 0.5221  3.779  0.107  0.443  0.000
DENVER        46 41  9080  8977  0.036 46.057    9  1.043    9  0.083   10  0.129    9 0.5101  3.927  0.680 -0.422  0.000
TORONTO       49 39  8702  8653 -0.049 43.999   10  1.033   10  0.079   14 -0.000   10 0.5089  3.833  0.090 -0.091  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GOLDEN STATE  47 46  9910  9919  0.058 50.272   11  0.990   11  0.057    9  0.139   11 0.5082  3.977  0.946 -0.667  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   43 44  8964  9022  0.038 46.573   12  0.924   12  0.017   16 -0.061   12 0.5026  3.887  0.291 -0.412  0.000
MIAMI         44 42  8114  8233 -0.036 43.853   13  0.889   13 -0.004   17 -0.098   13 0.4995  3.751 -0.395  0.199  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 40 42  7843  7881  0.009 42.978   14  0.869   14 -0.020   11  0.022   15 0.4984  3.766 -0.205  0.249  0.000
NEW JERSEY    47 47  9083  9124 -0.022 48.192   15  0.866   15 -0.024   13  0.002   14 0.4985  3.792 -0.107  0.110  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   39 43  7833  7962 -0.001 42.930   16  0.812   16 -0.052   15 -0.052   16 0.4948  3.762 -0.299  0.195  0.000
WASHINGTON    41 45  8922  8999 -0.036 43.786   17  0.766   17 -0.079   19 -0.148   17 0.4915  3.941  0.473 -0.770  0.000
ORLANDO       40 46  8123  8095 -0.036 43.437   18  0.715   18 -0.110   12  0.013   18 0.4883  3.744 -0.318  0.345  0.000
INDIANA       35 47  7840  8040 -0.052 41.517   19  0.531   19 -0.200   23 -0.214   20 0.4781  3.795 -0.306 -0.122  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  35 47  7785  8033 -0.060 41.375   20  0.526   20 -0.201   21 -0.191   21 0.4779  3.777 -0.367 -0.015  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SACRAMENTO    33 49  8303  8451  0.005 43.114   21  0.522   21 -0.206   18 -0.130   19 0.4783  3.888  0.225 -0.484  0.000
MINNESOTA     32 50  7877  8178 -0.002 43.283   22  0.469   22 -0.233   28 -0.302   22 0.4750  3.782 -0.456 -0.148  0.000
PORTLAND      32 50  7717  8069 -0.009 43.276   23  0.456   23 -0.239   25 -0.251   23 0.4743  3.753 -0.540  0.037  0.000
NEW YORK      33 49  7994  8228 -0.057 41.419   24  0.433   25 -0.256   24 -0.233   25 0.4721  3.822 -0.198 -0.267  0.000
CHARLOTTE     33 49  7945  8252 -0.066 41.381   25  0.429   24 -0.255   22 -0.202   26 0.4716  3.818 -0.183 -0.221  0.000
SEATTLE       31 51  8130  8367 -0.004 43.086   26  0.413   26 -0.269   20 -0.184   24 0.4721  3.854  0.007 -0.374  0.000
ATLANTA       30 52  7680  8070 -0.064 41.684   27  0.304   27 -0.328   29 -0.341   27 0.4634  3.767 -0.566 -0.115  0.000
MILWAUKEE     28 54  8172  8531 -0.055 41.813   28  0.211   28 -0.379   30 -0.347   28 0.4578  3.888  0.008 -0.702  0.000
BOSTON        24 58  7857  8137 -0.068 41.241   29  0.012   29 -0.502   26 -0.252   30 0.4450  3.801 -0.317 -0.188  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60  8331  8753  0.002 43.776   30  0.000   30 -0.508   27 -0.274   29 0.4470  3.913  0.207 -0.755  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX       67 26 10182  9528  0.072 48.946    3  1.822    3  0.541    2  0.456    3 0.5573  3.959  1.170 -0.259  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  47 46  9910  9919  0.058 50.272   11  0.990   11  0.057    9  0.139   11 0.5082  3.977  0.946 -0.667  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   43 44  8964  9022  0.038 46.573   12  0.924   12  0.017   16 -0.061   12 0.5026  3.887  0.291 -0.412  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 40 42  7843  7881  0.009 42.978   14  0.869   14 -0.020   11  0.022   15 0.4984  3.766 -0.205  0.249  0.000
SACRAMENTO    33 49  8303  8451  0.005 43.114   21  0.522   21 -0.206   18 -0.130   19 0.4783  3.888  0.225 -0.484  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
UTAH          60 39  9986  9736  0.082 53.675    5  1.416    5  0.296    7  0.219    6 0.5319  3.839  0.336  0.101  0.000
DENVER        46 41  9080  8977  0.036 46.057    9  1.043    9  0.083   10  0.129    9 0.5101  3.927  0.680 -0.422  0.000
MINNESOTA     32 50  7877  8178 -0.002 43.283   22  0.469   22 -0.233   28 -0.302   22 0.4750  3.782 -0.456 -0.148  0.000
PORTLAND      32 50  7717  8069 -0.009 43.276   23  0.456   23 -0.239   25 -0.251   23 0.4743  3.753 -0.540  0.037  0.000
SEATTLE       31 51  8130  8367 -0.004 43.086   26  0.413   26 -0.269   20 -0.184   24 0.4721  3.854  0.007 -0.374  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        69 19  8792  8240  0.035 45.419    1  2.072    1  0.677    3  0.321    1 0.5696  3.775  0.136  0.507  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   74 28  9992  9222  0.091 54.531    2  1.876    2  0.568    1  0.529    2 0.5607  3.717  0.078  0.979  0.000
HOUSTON       55 34  8564  8188  0.046 46.716    6  1.410    6  0.282    8  0.219    5 0.5320  3.718 -0.231  0.669  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   39 43  7833  7962 -0.001 42.930   16  0.812   16 -0.052   15 -0.052   16 0.4948  3.762 -0.299  0.195  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60  8331  8753  0.002 43.776   30  0.000   30 -0.508   27 -0.274   29 0.4470  3.913  0.207 -0.755  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       63 35  9334  8946  0.015 50.458    4  1.446    4  0.313    4  0.296    4 0.5330  3.720 -0.143  0.736  0.000
CLEVELAND     62 40  9710  9353  0.009 52.455    7  1.343    7  0.239    5  0.278    7 0.5263  3.716 -0.181  0.736  0.000
CHICAGO       55 37  9024  8602 -0.008 46.460    8  1.277    8  0.197    6  0.275    8 0.5221  3.779  0.107  0.443  0.000
INDIANA       35 47  7840  8040 -0.052 41.517   19  0.531   19 -0.200   23 -0.214   20 0.4781  3.795 -0.306 -0.122  0.000
MILWAUKEE     28 54  8172  8531 -0.055 41.813   28  0.211   28 -0.379   30 -0.347   28 0.4578  3.888  0.008 -0.702  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         44 42  8114  8233 -0.036 43.853   13  0.889   13 -0.004   17 -0.098   13 0.4995  3.751 -0.395  0.199  0.000
WASHINGTON    41 45  8922  8999 -0.036 43.786   17  0.766   17 -0.079   19 -0.148   17 0.4915  3.941  0.473 -0.770  0.000
ORLANDO       40 46  8123  8095 -0.036 43.437   18  0.715   18 -0.110   12  0.013   18 0.4883  3.744 -0.318  0.345  0.000
CHARLOTTE     33 49  7945  8252 -0.066 41.381   25  0.429   24 -0.255   22 -0.202   26 0.4716  3.818 -0.183 -0.221  0.000
ATLANTA       30 52  7680  8070 -0.064 41.684   27  0.304   27 -0.328   29 -0.341   27 0.4634  3.767 -0.566 -0.115  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TORONTO       49 39  8702  8653 -0.049 43.999   10  1.033   10  0.079   14 -0.000   10 0.5089  3.833  0.090 -0.091  0.000
NEW JERSEY    47 47  9083  9124 -0.022 48.192   15  0.866   15 -0.024   13  0.002   14 0.4985  3.792 -0.107  0.110  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  35 47  7785  8033 -0.060 41.375   20  0.526   20 -0.201   21 -0.191   21 0.4779  3.777 -0.367 -0.015  0.000
NEW YORK      33 49  7994  8228 -0.057 41.419   24  0.433   25 -0.256   24 -0.233   25 0.4721  3.822 -0.198 -0.267  0.000
BOSTON        24 58  7857  8137 -0.068 41.241   29  0.012   29 -0.502   26 -0.252   30 0.4450  3.801 -0.317 -0.188  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 259 184 0.585    1  0.221
PACIFIC DIVISION   230 207 0.526    2  0.095
CENTRAL DIVISION   243 213 0.533    3  0.072
NORTHWEST DIVISION 201 231 0.465    4 -0.089
ATLANTIC DIVISION  188 240 0.439    5 -0.195
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 188 234 0.445    6 -0.212

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.259 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.024 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:18:48 2007
games through: Thu Jun 14 2007

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