Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX       71 26 10734 10087  0.095 51.032    1  2.545    1  0.613    1  0.446    1 0.5610  4.012  1.495 -0.603  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   75 30 10117  9377  0.107 55.579    2  2.511    2  0.588    2  0.444    2 0.5599  3.704 -0.007  0.896  0.000
MIAMI         70 27  9797  9198 -0.013 47.383    3  2.363    3  0.500    5  0.356    3 0.5507  3.814  0.413  0.298  0.000
DALLAS        64 31  9772  9322  0.087 50.131    4  2.298    4  0.459    4  0.356    4 0.5474  3.873  0.697  0.015  0.000
DETROIT       69 38  9911  9476  0.051 55.161    5  2.115    5  0.365    3  0.428    5 0.5388  3.661 -0.213  1.070  0.000
SEATTLE       58 35  9197  9028  0.066 49.121    6  2.048    6  0.335   10  0.097    6 0.5349  3.827  0.215 -0.022  0.000
HOUSTON       54 35  8479  8167  0.064 46.514    7  1.953    7  0.274    6  0.347    7 0.5299  3.716 -0.049  0.743  0.000
SACRAMENTO    51 36  9016  8861  0.039 45.195    8  1.863    8  0.222    9  0.100    8 0.5242  3.910  0.629 -0.429  0.000
DENVER        50 37  8612  8497  0.048 45.480    9  1.841    9  0.210    7  0.178    9 0.5210  3.837  0.349  0.008  0.000
MEMPHIS       45 41  8072  7928  0.049 44.872   10  1.617   12  0.086    8  0.101   11 0.5088  3.717 -0.293  0.495  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA     44 38  7934  7815  0.012 41.787   11  1.612   10  0.086   11  0.090   12 0.5087  3.784  0.007  0.174  0.000
CHICAGO       49 39  8360  8284 -0.047 43.129   12  1.608   11  0.086   13  0.045   10 0.5094  3.747 -0.211  0.302  0.000
INDIANA       50 45  8718  8694 -0.006 48.138   13  1.542   13  0.053   12  0.049   13 0.5064  3.683 -0.498  0.596  0.000
WASHINGTON    49 43  9245  9297 -0.028 46.094   14  1.539   14  0.052   20 -0.089   14 0.5059  3.886  0.319 -0.497  0.000
BOSTON        48 41  8918  8851 -0.054 43.424   15  1.528   15  0.042   15 -0.038   15 0.5043  3.861  0.248 -0.324  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  44 43  8582  8683 -0.027 43.802   16  1.442   16 -0.009   19 -0.082   16 0.4993  3.850  0.150 -0.314  0.000
CLEVELAND     42 40  7914  7849 -0.056 39.890   17  1.420   17 -0.026   17 -0.057   17 0.4968  3.780 -0.158  0.043  0.000
NEW JERSEY    42 44  7883  8057 -0.038 43.143   18  1.358   18 -0.056   16 -0.056   18 0.4947  3.694 -0.552  0.440  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 37 45  7849  7912 -0.003 41.876   19  1.254   19 -0.114   18 -0.070   19 0.4874  3.763 -0.251  0.110  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   34 48  8095  8338  0.009 42.748   20  1.126   20 -0.177   23 -0.220   20 0.4812  3.866  0.088 -0.528  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       36 46  8160  8344 -0.058 40.574   21  1.112   21 -0.185   24 -0.237   21 0.4807  3.889  0.183 -0.658  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8094  8271 -0.005 42.186   22  1.108   22 -0.187   14 -0.014   22 0.4796  3.849  0.214 -0.243  0.000
TORONTO       33 49  8178  8311 -0.046 40.782   23  0.994   23 -0.260   21 -0.162   23 0.4730  3.872  0.175 -0.499  0.000
NEW YORK      33 49  7977  8177 -0.063 40.482   24  0.965   24 -0.274   22 -0.190   24 0.4715  3.825 -0.077 -0.302  0.000
MILWAUKEE     30 52  7973  8218 -0.048 41.026   25  0.843   25 -0.345   25 -0.249   25 0.4642  3.843 -0.054 -0.445  0.000
PORTLAND      27 55  7621  7949 -0.006 42.509   26  0.762   26 -0.387   26 -0.276   26 0.4594  3.765 -0.450 -0.103  0.000
UTAH          26 56  7625  7975 -0.011 42.477   27  0.707   27 -0.417   27 -0.305   27 0.4562  3.764 -0.483 -0.128  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   18 64  7252  7832 -0.012 43.111   28  0.346   28 -0.660   29 -0.411   28 0.4337  3.684 -0.951  0.129  0.000
CHARLOTTE     18 64  7729  8220 -0.078 40.803   29  0.260   29 -0.712   28 -0.380   29 0.4275  3.800 -0.386 -0.373  0.000
ATLANTA       13 69  7605  8401 -0.077 41.437   30  0.000   30 -0.869   30 -0.634   30 0.4139  3.803 -0.630 -0.639  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX       71 26 10734 10087  0.095 51.032    1  2.545    1  0.613    1  0.446    1 0.5610  4.012  1.495 -0.603  0.000
SACRAMENTO    51 36  9016  8861  0.039 45.195    8  1.863    8  0.222    9  0.100    8 0.5242  3.910  0.629 -0.429  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 37 45  7849  7912 -0.003 41.876   19  1.254   19 -0.114   18 -0.070   19 0.4874  3.763 -0.251  0.110  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   34 48  8095  8338  0.009 42.748   20  1.126   20 -0.177   23 -0.220   20 0.4812  3.866  0.088 -0.528  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  34 48  8094  8271 -0.005 42.186   22  1.108   22 -0.187   14 -0.014   22 0.4796  3.849  0.214 -0.243  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE       58 35  9197  9028  0.066 49.121    6  2.048    6  0.335   10  0.097    6 0.5349  3.827  0.215 -0.022  0.000
DENVER        50 37  8612  8497  0.048 45.480    9  1.841    9  0.210    7  0.178    9 0.5210  3.837  0.349  0.008  0.000
MINNESOTA     44 38  7934  7815  0.012 41.787   11  1.612   10  0.086   11  0.090   12 0.5087  3.784  0.007  0.174  0.000
PORTLAND      27 55  7621  7949 -0.006 42.509   26  0.762   26 -0.387   26 -0.276   26 0.4594  3.765 -0.450 -0.103  0.000
UTAH          26 56  7625  7975 -0.011 42.477   27  0.707   27 -0.417   27 -0.305   27 0.4562  3.764 -0.483 -0.128  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   75 30 10117  9377  0.107 55.579    2  2.511    2  0.588    2  0.444    2 0.5599  3.704 -0.007  0.896  0.000
DALLAS        64 31  9772  9322  0.087 50.131    4  2.298    4  0.459    4  0.356    4 0.5474  3.873  0.697  0.015  0.000
HOUSTON       54 35  8479  8167  0.064 46.514    7  1.953    7  0.274    6  0.347    7 0.5299  3.716 -0.049  0.743  0.000
MEMPHIS       45 41  8072  7928  0.049 44.872   10  1.617   12  0.086    8  0.101   11 0.5088  3.717 -0.293  0.495  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   18 64  7252  7832 -0.012 43.111   28  0.346   28 -0.660   29 -0.411   28 0.4337  3.684 -0.951  0.129  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       69 38  9911  9476  0.051 55.161    5  2.115    5  0.365    3  0.428    5 0.5388  3.661 -0.213  1.070  0.000
CHICAGO       49 39  8360  8284 -0.047 43.129   12  1.608   11  0.086   13  0.045   10 0.5094  3.747 -0.211  0.302  0.000
INDIANA       50 45  8718  8694 -0.006 48.138   13  1.542   13  0.053   12  0.049   13 0.5064  3.683 -0.498  0.596  0.000
CLEVELAND     42 40  7914  7849 -0.056 39.890   17  1.420   17 -0.026   17 -0.057   17 0.4968  3.780 -0.158  0.043  0.000
MILWAUKEE     30 52  7973  8218 -0.048 41.026   25  0.843   25 -0.345   25 -0.249   25 0.4642  3.843 -0.054 -0.445  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         70 27  9797  9198 -0.013 47.383    3  2.363    3  0.500    5  0.356    3 0.5507  3.814  0.413  0.298  0.000
WASHINGTON    49 43  9245  9297 -0.028 46.094   14  1.539   14  0.052   20 -0.089   14 0.5059  3.886  0.319 -0.497  0.000
ORLANDO       36 46  8160  8344 -0.058 40.574   21  1.112   21 -0.185   24 -0.237   21 0.4807  3.889  0.183 -0.658  0.000
CHARLOTTE     18 64  7729  8220 -0.078 40.803   29  0.260   29 -0.712   28 -0.380   29 0.4275  3.800 -0.386 -0.373  0.000
ATLANTA       13 69  7605  8401 -0.077 41.437   30  0.000   30 -0.869   30 -0.634   30 0.4139  3.803 -0.630 -0.639  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        48 41  8918  8851 -0.054 43.424   15  1.528   15  0.042   15 -0.038   15 0.5043  3.861  0.248 -0.324  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  44 43  8582  8683 -0.027 43.802   16  1.442   16 -0.009   19 -0.082   16 0.4993  3.850  0.150 -0.314  0.000
NEW JERSEY    42 44  7883  8057 -0.038 43.143   18  1.358   18 -0.056   16 -0.056   18 0.4947  3.694 -0.552  0.440  0.000
TORONTO       33 49  8178  8311 -0.046 40.782   23  0.994   23 -0.260   21 -0.162   23 0.4730  3.872  0.175 -0.499  0.000
NEW YORK      33 49  7977  8177 -0.063 40.482   24  0.965   24 -0.274   22 -0.190   24 0.4715  3.825 -0.077 -0.302  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 256 201 0.560    1  0.222
PACIFIC DIVISION   227 203 0.528    2  0.057
CENTRAL DIVISION   240 214 0.529    3  0.030
NORTHWEST DIVISION 205 221 0.481    4 -0.035
ATLANTIC DIVISION  200 226 0.469    5 -0.150
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 186 249 0.428    6 -0.246

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.271 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:15:52 2007
games through: Thu Jun 23 2005

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