Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANA       71 27 8861 8318 -0.006 47.998    1  2.087    1  0.509    3  0.361    4 0.5493  3.654 -0.113  0.836  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   63 29 8394 7771  0.094 48.172    2  2.060    4  0.489    2  0.524    2 0.5514  3.638 -0.021  1.069  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   69 35 9991 9651  0.137 57.076    3  2.044    2  0.502    6  0.306    3 0.5502  3.804  0.516  0.095  0.000
MINNESOTA     68 32 9408 8959  0.100 53.265    4  2.038    3  0.491    4  0.360    1 0.5518  3.713  0.150  0.571  0.000
SACRAMENTO    62 32 9575 9163  0.103 50.213    5  1.972    5  0.452    7  0.285    5 0.5465  3.887  0.899 -0.329  0.000
DETROIT       70 35 9391 8765  0.028 52.592    6  1.855    6  0.387    1  0.528    6 0.5397  3.620 -0.093  1.149  0.000
DALLAS        53 34 9124 8753  0.078 45.701    7  1.683    7  0.300    5  0.330    7 0.5321  3.950  1.260 -0.600  0.000
MEMPHIS       50 36 8264 8120  0.067 45.485    8  1.570    8  0.234    9  0.110    8 0.5249  3.805  0.327 -0.107  0.000
NEW JERSEY    54 39 8371 8139 -0.010 46.318    9  1.462    9  0.170    8  0.134    9 0.5160  3.687 -0.191  0.459  0.000
HOUSTON       46 41 7785 7670  0.062 45.956   10  1.345   10  0.112   12  0.071   10 0.5131  3.648 -0.428  0.571  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        44 43 8425 8357  0.062 46.163   11  1.235   11  0.054   11  0.074   11 0.5077  3.837  0.441 -0.293  0.000
UTAH          42 40 7271 7371  0.025 42.931   12  1.215   12  0.048   17 -0.067   12 0.5062  3.670 -0.469  0.336  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41 7440 7544  0.025 42.938   13  1.175   13  0.024   14 -0.014   13 0.5033  3.699 -0.289  0.261  0.000
MIAMI         48 47 8495 8450 -0.046 46.809   14  1.083   14 -0.036   10  0.086   14 0.4968  3.692 -0.217  0.388  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   44 45 8093 8122 -0.068 43.351   15  1.014   15 -0.070   18 -0.100   15 0.4917  3.726 -0.253  0.053  0.000
MILWAUKEE     42 45 8467 8443 -0.034 43.242   16  1.010   16 -0.074   16 -0.059   18 0.4916  3.864  0.442 -0.561  0.000
SEATTLE       37 45 7964 8016  0.028 42.864   17  0.986   17 -0.086   13  0.021   17 0.4917  3.845  0.429 -0.386  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  37 45 7649 7709  0.027 42.883   18  0.976   18 -0.091   15 -0.017   16 0.4917  3.764  0.005 -0.040  0.000
NEW YORK      39 47 7878 8050 -0.067 42.391   19  0.835   19 -0.160   19 -0.192   19 0.4829  3.755 -0.209 -0.176  0.000
BOSTON        36 50 8149 8335 -0.062 42.576   20  0.718   20 -0.228   22 -0.221   20 0.4757  3.840  0.161 -0.603  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     35 47 7619 7834 -0.083 40.100   21  0.709   21 -0.231   20 -0.203   21 0.4755  3.789 -0.062 -0.344  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  33 49 7215 7419 -0.083 40.111   22  0.631   22 -0.281   24 -0.273   23 0.4698  3.681 -0.625  0.079  0.000
TORONTO       33 49 7006 7253 -0.084 40.286   23  0.619   23 -0.286   23 -0.259   22 0.4699  3.612 -0.915  0.397  0.000
PHOENIX       29 53 7723 8030  0.015 43.238   24  0.569   24 -0.316   21 -0.207   24 0.4684  3.825  0.106 -0.521  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 28 54 7771 8147  0.010 43.335   25  0.511   25 -0.346   26 -0.325   25 0.4655  3.839  0.052 -0.702  0.000
ATLANTA       28 54 7611 7992 -0.093 40.384   26  0.364   26 -0.422   25 -0.301   26 0.4551  3.807 -0.077 -0.526  0.000
WASHINGTON    25 57 7528 7990 -0.113 39.975   27  0.181   27 -0.535   28 -0.445   27 0.4448  3.793 -0.283 -0.606  0.000
CHICAGO       23 59 7355 7876 -0.107 40.411   28  0.086   28 -0.589   27 -0.442   28 0.4402  3.759 -0.441 -0.443  0.000
ORLANDO       21 61 7711 8287 -0.101 40.673   29  0.000   29 -0.634   29 -0.512   29 0.4349  3.858 -0.041 -0.984  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. LAKERS   69 35 9991 9651  0.137 57.076    3  2.044    2  0.502    6  0.306    3 0.5502  3.804  0.516  0.095  0.000
SACRAMENTO    62 32 9575 9163  0.103 50.213    5  1.972    5  0.452    7  0.285    5 0.5465  3.887  0.899 -0.329  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41 7440 7544  0.025 42.938   13  1.175   13  0.024   14 -0.014   13 0.5033  3.699 -0.289  0.261  0.000
SEATTLE       37 45 7964 8016  0.028 42.864   17  0.986   17 -0.086   13  0.021   17 0.4917  3.845  0.429 -0.386  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  37 45 7649 7709  0.027 42.883   18  0.976   18 -0.091   15 -0.017   16 0.4917  3.764  0.005 -0.040  0.000
PHOENIX       29 53 7723 8030  0.015 43.238   24  0.569   24 -0.316   21 -0.207   24 0.4684  3.825  0.106 -0.521  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 28 54 7771 8147  0.010 43.335   25  0.511   25 -0.346   26 -0.325   25 0.4655  3.839  0.052 -0.702  0.000

MIDWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   63 29 8394 7771  0.094 48.172    2  2.060    4  0.489    2  0.524    2 0.5514  3.638 -0.021  1.069  0.000
MINNESOTA     68 32 9408 8959  0.100 53.265    4  2.038    3  0.491    4  0.360    1 0.5518  3.713  0.150  0.571  0.000
DALLAS        53 34 9124 8753  0.078 45.701    7  1.683    7  0.300    5  0.330    7 0.5321  3.950  1.260 -0.600  0.000
MEMPHIS       50 36 8264 8120  0.067 45.485    8  1.570    8  0.234    9  0.110    8 0.5249  3.805  0.327 -0.107  0.000
HOUSTON       46 41 7785 7670  0.062 45.956   10  1.345   10  0.112   12  0.071   10 0.5131  3.648 -0.428  0.571  0.000
DENVER        44 43 8425 8357  0.062 46.163   11  1.235   11  0.054   11  0.074   11 0.5077  3.837  0.441 -0.293  0.000
UTAH          42 40 7271 7371  0.025 42.931   12  1.215   12  0.048   17 -0.067   12 0.5062  3.670 -0.469  0.336  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANA       71 27 8861 8318 -0.006 47.998    1  2.087    1  0.509    3  0.361    4 0.5493  3.654 -0.113  0.836  0.000
DETROIT       70 35 9391 8765  0.028 52.592    6  1.855    6  0.387    1  0.528    6 0.5397  3.620 -0.093  1.149  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   44 45 8093 8122 -0.068 43.351   15  1.014   15 -0.070   18 -0.100   15 0.4917  3.726 -0.253  0.053  0.000
MILWAUKEE     42 45 8467 8443 -0.034 43.242   16  1.010   16 -0.074   16 -0.059   18 0.4916  3.864  0.442 -0.561  0.000
CLEVELAND     35 47 7619 7834 -0.083 40.100   21  0.709   21 -0.231   20 -0.203   21 0.4755  3.789 -0.062 -0.344  0.000
TORONTO       33 49 7006 7253 -0.084 40.286   23  0.619   23 -0.286   23 -0.259   22 0.4699  3.612 -0.915  0.397  0.000
ATLANTA       28 54 7611 7992 -0.093 40.384   26  0.364   26 -0.422   25 -0.301   26 0.4551  3.807 -0.077 -0.526  0.000
CHICAGO       23 59 7355 7876 -0.107 40.411   28  0.086   28 -0.589   27 -0.442   28 0.4402  3.759 -0.441 -0.443  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY    54 39 8371 8139 -0.010 46.318    9  1.462    9  0.170    8  0.134    9 0.5160  3.687 -0.191  0.459  0.000
MIAMI         48 47 8495 8450 -0.046 46.809   14  1.083   14 -0.036   10  0.086   14 0.4968  3.692 -0.217  0.388  0.000
NEW YORK      39 47 7878 8050 -0.067 42.391   19  0.835   19 -0.160   19 -0.192   19 0.4829  3.755 -0.209 -0.176  0.000
BOSTON        36 50 8149 8335 -0.062 42.576   20  0.718   20 -0.228   22 -0.221   20 0.4757  3.840  0.161 -0.603  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  33 49 7215 7419 -0.083 40.111   22  0.631   22 -0.281   24 -0.273   23 0.4698  3.681 -0.625  0.079  0.000
WASHINGTON    25 57 7528 7990 -0.113 39.975   27  0.181   27 -0.535   28 -0.445   27 0.4448  3.793 -0.283 -0.606  0.000
ORLANDO       21 61 7711 8287 -0.101 40.673   29  0.000   29 -0.634   29 -0.512   29 0.4349  3.858 -0.041 -0.984  0.000

DIVISION            W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
MIDWEST DIVISION  366 255 0.589    1  0.268
PACIFIC DIVISION  303 305 0.498    2  0.008
CENTRAL DIVISION  346 361 0.489    3 -0.108
ATLANTIC DIVISION 256 350 0.422    4 -0.247

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.323 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.030 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:34 2007
games through: Tue Jun 15 2004

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.