Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         71 27 10195  9535  0.106 51.210    1  0.637    1  0.610    2  0.512    2 0.5608    3  3.880    2  0.970   13  0.054
LAKERS        73 28 10163  9507  0.130 53.608    2  0.633    2  0.604    1  0.531    1 0.5617    7  3.823    3  0.711    4  0.351
SPURS         62 30  8843  8304  0.088 47.599    3  0.502    4  0.463    3  0.450    4 0.5460   26  3.726    7  0.175    1  0.725
MAVERICKS     61 29  9501  9150  0.074 46.683    4  0.496    3  0.465    4  0.335    3 0.5470    1  3.936    1  1.069   26 -0.399
NETS          63 39  9796  9456  0.007 50.781    5  0.280    5  0.273    7  0.184    5 0.5285   18  3.770   12  0.115    8  0.254
TIMBERWOLVES  50 35  8451  8206  0.044 43.419    6  0.235    6  0.220    9  0.116    6 0.5234    6  3.831    5  0.336   18 -0.104
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 36  8199  7970  0.051 43.689    7  0.215    7  0.198    5  0.218    8 0.5211   16  3.772    9  0.157    6  0.280
CELTICS       58 40  9361  9135 -0.009 48.498    8  0.213    8  0.194    6  0.185    7 0.5211   14  3.779   10  0.156   10  0.214
PISTONS       54 38  8565  8394 -0.037 44.651    9  0.168    9  0.155   12  0.066    9 0.5178   25  3.737   20 -0.157    5  0.289
SONICS        47 40  8445  8248  0.059 45.046   10  0.138   10  0.126    8  0.171   10 0.5129   11  3.796    6  0.222   12  0.121
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          45 41  8223  8154  0.046 44.528   11  0.090   11  0.084   10  0.095   11 0.5087   15  3.774   14  0.043   11  0.147
HORNETS       48 43  8565  8486 -0.021 44.987   12  0.042   12  0.037   11  0.077   12 0.5046   23  3.752   17 -0.075    9  0.229
MAGIC         45 41  8615  8506 -0.031 42.079   13  0.030   13  0.021   16 -0.046   13 0.5025    4  3.877    4  0.397   28 -0.489
76ERS         45 42  7906  7819 -0.022 42.922   14  0.020   14  0.011   14 -0.004   14 0.5023   28  3.691   25 -0.434    3  0.426
PACERS        44 43  8396  8373 -0.025 42.990   15  0.004   15 -0.007   13  0.030   15 0.4994   10  3.807   11  0.133   17 -0.073
RAPTORS       44 43  7913  7963 -0.034 42.943   16 -0.002   16 -0.012   17 -0.065   16 0.4992   27  3.711   23 -0.407    7  0.277
CLIPPERS      39 43  7846  7884  0.013 41.808   17 -0.030   17 -0.044   15 -0.022   18 0.4947   12  3.790   15  0.003   16 -0.047
BUCKS         41 41  7996  8014 -0.055 39.764   18 -0.034   18 -0.048   20 -0.123   17 0.4954    5  3.833   13  0.107   23 -0.353
SUNS          36 46  7802  7858  0.012 41.844   19 -0.120   19 -0.133   18 -0.076   19 0.4860   13  3.779   18 -0.105   15 -0.047
WIZARDS       37 45  7609  7724 -0.044 40.344   20 -0.134   20 -0.145   21 -0.132   20 0.4850   19  3.761   21 -0.244   14 -0.021
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          36 46  7150  7276 -0.058 40.019   21 -0.168   21 -0.176   19 -0.120   21 0.4810   29  3.617   29 -0.875    2  0.635
HAWKS         33 49  7711  8058 -0.066 40.337   22 -0.253   22 -0.266   23 -0.263   22 0.4724    9  3.814   19 -0.127   24 -0.398
KNICKS        30 52  7514  7841 -0.063 40.361   23 -0.326   23 -0.348   24 -0.271   23 0.4638   21  3.756   22 -0.405   19 -0.137
ROCKETS       28 54  7572  7973 -0.008 42.384   24 -0.333   24 -0.353   26 -0.338   24 0.4627   22  3.753   26 -0.487   20 -0.189
CAVALIERS     29 53  7812  8085 -0.060 40.322   25 -0.355   25 -0.377   22 -0.223   25 0.4611    8  3.822   16 -0.047   25 -0.398
NUGGETS       27 55  7559  8036 -0.012 42.475   26 -0.364   26 -0.383   27 -0.360   26 0.4598   17  3.772   24 -0.421   22 -0.299
GRIZZLIES     23 59  7372  7982 -0.018 42.664   27 -0.478   27 -0.499   28 -0.433   27 0.4482   24  3.745   27 -0.621   21 -0.245
WARRIORS      21 61  8009  8452 -0.009 42.403   28 -0.533   28 -0.570   25 -0.325   28 0.4424    2  3.886    8  0.161   29 -0.812
BULLS         21 61  7335  8035 -0.078 40.802   29 -0.573   29 -0.604   29 -0.532   29 0.4376   20  3.757   28 -0.662   27 -0.402
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS         71 27 10195  9535  0.106 51.210    1  0.637    1  0.610    2  0.512    2 0.5608    3  3.880    2  0.970   13  0.054
LAKERS        73 28 10163  9507  0.130 53.608    2  0.633    2  0.604    1  0.531    1 0.5617    7  3.823    3  0.711    4  0.351
TRAIL BLAZERS 49 36  8199  7970  0.051 43.689    7  0.215    7  0.198    5  0.218    8 0.5211   16  3.772    9  0.157    6  0.280
SONICS        47 40  8445  8248  0.059 45.046   10  0.138   10  0.126    8  0.171   10 0.5129   11  3.796    6  0.222   12  0.121
CLIPPERS      39 43  7846  7884  0.013 41.808   17 -0.030   17 -0.044   15 -0.022   18 0.4947   12  3.790   15  0.003   16 -0.047
SUNS          36 46  7802  7858  0.012 41.844   19 -0.120   19 -0.133   18 -0.076   19 0.4860   13  3.779   18 -0.105   15 -0.047
WARRIORS      21 61  8009  8452 -0.009 42.403   28 -0.533   28 -0.570   25 -0.325   28 0.4424    2  3.886    8  0.161   29 -0.812

MIDWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         62 30  8843  8304  0.088 47.599    3  0.502    4  0.463    3  0.450    4 0.5460   26  3.726    7  0.175    1  0.725
MAVERICKS     61 29  9501  9150  0.074 46.683    4  0.496    3  0.465    4  0.335    3 0.5470    1  3.936    1  1.069   26 -0.399
TIMBERWOLVES  50 35  8451  8206  0.044 43.419    6  0.235    6  0.220    9  0.116    6 0.5234    6  3.831    5  0.336   18 -0.104
JAZZ          45 41  8223  8154  0.046 44.528   11  0.090   11  0.084   10  0.095   11 0.5087   15  3.774   14  0.043   11  0.147
ROCKETS       28 54  7572  7973 -0.008 42.384   24 -0.333   24 -0.353   26 -0.338   24 0.4627   22  3.753   26 -0.487   20 -0.189
NUGGETS       27 55  7559  8036 -0.012 42.475   26 -0.364   26 -0.383   27 -0.360   26 0.4598   17  3.772   24 -0.421   22 -0.299
GRIZZLIES     23 59  7372  7982 -0.018 42.664   27 -0.478   27 -0.499   28 -0.433   27 0.4482   24  3.745   27 -0.621   21 -0.245

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PISTONS       54 38  8565  8394 -0.037 44.651    9  0.168    9  0.155   12  0.066    9 0.5178   25  3.737   20 -0.157    5  0.289
HORNETS       48 43  8565  8486 -0.021 44.987   12  0.042   12  0.037   11  0.077   12 0.5046   23  3.752   17 -0.075    9  0.229
PACERS        44 43  8396  8373 -0.025 42.990   15  0.004   15 -0.007   13  0.030   15 0.4994   10  3.807   11  0.133   17 -0.073
RAPTORS       44 43  7913  7963 -0.034 42.943   16 -0.002   16 -0.012   17 -0.065   16 0.4992   27  3.711   23 -0.407    7  0.277
BUCKS         41 41  7996  8014 -0.055 39.764   18 -0.034   18 -0.048   20 -0.123   17 0.4954    5  3.833   13  0.107   23 -0.353
HAWKS         33 49  7711  8058 -0.066 40.337   22 -0.253   22 -0.266   23 -0.263   22 0.4724    9  3.814   19 -0.127   24 -0.398
CAVALIERS     29 53  7812  8085 -0.060 40.322   25 -0.355   25 -0.377   22 -0.223   25 0.4611    8  3.822   16 -0.047   25 -0.398
BULLS         21 61  7335  8035 -0.078 40.802   29 -0.573   29 -0.604   29 -0.532   29 0.4376   20  3.757   28 -0.662   27 -0.402

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NETS          63 39  9796  9456  0.007 50.781    5  0.280    5  0.273    7  0.184    5 0.5285   18  3.770   12  0.115    8  0.254
CELTICS       58 40  9361  9135 -0.009 48.498    8  0.213    8  0.194    6  0.185    7 0.5211   14  3.779   10  0.156   10  0.214
MAGIC         45 41  8615  8506 -0.031 42.079   13  0.030   13  0.021   16 -0.046   13 0.5025    4  3.877    4  0.397   28 -0.489
76ERS         45 42  7906  7819 -0.022 42.922   14  0.020   14  0.011   14 -0.004   14 0.5023   28  3.691   25 -0.434    3  0.426
WIZARDS       37 45  7609  7724 -0.044 40.344   20 -0.134   20 -0.145   21 -0.132   20 0.4850   19  3.761   21 -0.244   14 -0.021
HEAT          36 46  7150  7276 -0.058 40.019   21 -0.168   21 -0.176   19 -0.120   21 0.4810   29  3.617   29 -0.875    2  0.635
KNICKS        30 52  7514  7841 -0.063 40.361   23 -0.326   23 -0.348   24 -0.271   23 0.4638   21  3.756   22 -0.405   19 -0.137

DIVISION            W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION  336 281 0.545    1  0.184
ATLANTIC DIVISION 314 305 0.507    2 -0.021
MIDWEST DIVISION  296 303 0.494    3 -0.022
CENTRAL DIVISION  314 371 0.458    4 -0.183

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.283 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:43:58 2020
games through: Wed Jun 12 2002

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.