Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       72 15 10442  9325  0.078 43.334    1  0.918    1  0.910    1  0.926    1 0.5802   16  3.960    2  0.927    1  0.926
CAVALIERS     68 18 10503  9599  0.011 40.934    2  0.749    2  0.737    2  0.708    2 0.5668    5  4.027    1  1.054    8  0.362
CELTICS       65 22 10066  9255 -0.006 41.068    3  0.602    3  0.590    3  0.592    3 0.5555   24  3.921    7  0.393    3  0.791
ROCKETS       53 33  9765  9404  0.072 44.204    4  0.338    4  0.332    7  0.276    4 0.5319   23  3.924   16  0.090    6  0.463
NUGGETS       53 34 10431 10129  0.046 44.117    5  0.296    5  0.291    9  0.224    5 0.5280    4  4.036    4  0.616   18 -0.168
KNICKS        54 33 10026  9685 -0.008 42.272    6  0.284    6  0.278   11  0.200    7 0.5267   19  3.949   13  0.140   10  0.260
CLIPPERS      52 35  9802  9403  0.059 44.207    7  0.284    8  0.274    4  0.454    8 0.5265   27  3.893   15  0.113    2  0.795
TIMBERWOLVES  52 34  9806  9368  0.046 43.174    8  0.283    9  0.272    5  0.429    6 0.5275   25  3.917   10  0.210    5  0.647
WARRIORS      52 35  9853  9569  0.053 44.449    9  0.282    7  0.276    6  0.316   10 0.5263   22  3.932   12  0.169    7  0.462
PACERS        54 33 10213  9992 -0.022 42.177   10  0.271   10  0.266    8  0.245    9 0.5265    7  4.001    5  0.456   15  0.034
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        51 35  9704  9632  0.036 43.930   11  0.261   11  0.257   14  0.134   11 0.5241   20  3.946   17  0.060   11  0.208
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.067 45.045   12  0.201   12  0.182   12  0.198   12 0.5173    1  4.058    3  0.712   20 -0.317
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939  0.002 43.508   13  0.173   13  0.159   13  0.138   13 0.5167   15  3.968   11  0.176   13  0.100
PISTONS       46 41  9998  9847  0.013 43.444   14  0.072   14  0.066   10  0.203   14 0.5075   14  3.969    9  0.250   12  0.156
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.026 43.079   15 -0.012   15 -0.020   21 -0.202   15 0.4965   10  3.984   19 -0.081   22 -0.323
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.001 41.464   16 -0.026   16 -0.039   15 -0.009   17 0.4953    9  3.984   14  0.113   16 -0.131
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.020 43.564   17 -0.029   17 -0.042   16 -0.037   16 0.4961   30  3.816   27 -0.749    4  0.674
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.039 41.207   18 -0.072   18 -0.081   20 -0.101   18 0.4918    2  4.054    8  0.388   27 -0.590
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.044 40.658   19 -0.102   19 -0.110   17 -0.062   19 0.4899    3  4.050    6  0.406   26 -0.530
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.004 41.810   20 -0.129   20 -0.135   23 -0.217   20 0.4863   11  3.981   20 -0.112   21 -0.323
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.009 43.872   21 -0.142   21 -0.150   19 -0.072   21 0.4862   28  3.885   24 -0.450    9  0.306
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.008 41.456   22 -0.146   22 -0.150   18 -0.063   22 0.4856   21  3.936   21 -0.185   14  0.059
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.004 41.506   23 -0.195   23 -0.200   22 -0.212   23 0.4795    8  3.996   18 -0.027   23 -0.397
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.052 40.564   24 -0.358   24 -0.368   24 -0.305   24 0.4654   17  3.952   22 -0.346   19 -0.264
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.053 41.176   25 -0.472   25 -0.472   26 -0.568   25 0.4547   29  3.875   29 -0.998   17 -0.138
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.062 40.662   26 -0.540   26 -0.551   25 -0.529   26 0.4476   18  3.949   26 -0.588   25 -0.470
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.013 42.704   27 -0.602   27 -0.610   27 -0.633   27 0.4435   13  3.976   25 -0.554   28 -0.712
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.081 40.781   28 -0.715   28 -0.726   29 -0.763   28 0.4326   26  3.895   30 -1.094   24 -0.432
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.013 42.641   29 -0.728   29 -0.741   28 -0.659   29 0.4315    6  4.008   23 -0.411   29 -0.906
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.075 41.436   30 -0.744   30 -0.752   30 -0.860   30 0.4310   12  3.977   28 -0.773   30 -0.947
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      52 35  9802  9403  0.059 44.207    7  0.284    8  0.274    4  0.454    8 0.5265   27  3.893   15  0.113    2  0.795
WARRIORS      52 35  9853  9569  0.053 44.449    9  0.282    7  0.276    6  0.316   10 0.5263   22  3.932   12  0.169    7  0.462
LAKERS        51 35  9704  9632  0.036 43.930   11  0.261   11  0.257   14  0.134   11 0.5241   20  3.946   17  0.060   11  0.208
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.001 41.464   16 -0.026   16 -0.039   15 -0.009   17 0.4953    9  3.984   14  0.113   16 -0.131
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.004 41.810   20 -0.129   20 -0.135   23 -0.217   20 0.4863   11  3.981   20 -0.112   21 -0.323

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       72 15 10442  9325  0.078 43.334    1  0.918    1  0.910    1  0.926    1 0.5802   16  3.960    2  0.927    1  0.926
NUGGETS       53 34 10431 10129  0.046 44.117    5  0.296    5  0.291    9  0.224    5 0.5280    4  4.036    4  0.616   18 -0.168
TIMBERWOLVES  52 34  9806  9368  0.046 43.174    8  0.283    9  0.272    5  0.429    6 0.5275   25  3.917   10  0.210    5  0.647
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.008 41.456   22 -0.146   22 -0.150   18 -0.063   22 0.4856   21  3.936   21 -0.185   14  0.059
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.013 42.641   29 -0.728   29 -0.741   28 -0.659   29 0.4315    6  4.008   23 -0.411   29 -0.906

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       53 33  9765  9404  0.072 44.204    4  0.338    4  0.332    7  0.276    4 0.5319   23  3.924   16  0.090    6  0.463
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.067 45.045   12  0.201   12  0.182   12  0.198   12 0.5173    1  4.058    3  0.712   20 -0.317
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.026 43.079   15 -0.012   15 -0.020   21 -0.202   15 0.4965   10  3.984   19 -0.081   22 -0.323
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.004 41.506   23 -0.195   23 -0.200   22 -0.212   23 0.4795    8  3.996   18 -0.027   23 -0.397
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.013 42.704   27 -0.602   27 -0.610   27 -0.633   27 0.4435   13  3.976   25 -0.554   28 -0.712

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     68 18 10503  9599  0.011 40.934    2  0.749    2  0.737    2  0.708    2 0.5668    5  4.027    1  1.054    8  0.362
PACERS        54 33 10213  9992 -0.022 42.177   10  0.271   10  0.266    8  0.245    9 0.5265    7  4.001    5  0.456   15  0.034
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939  0.002 43.508   13  0.173   13  0.159   13  0.138   13 0.5167   15  3.968   11  0.176   13  0.100
PISTONS       46 41  9998  9847  0.013 43.444   14  0.072   14  0.066   10  0.203   14 0.5075   14  3.969    9  0.250   12  0.156
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.044 40.658   19 -0.102   19 -0.110   17 -0.062   19 0.4899    3  4.050    6  0.406   26 -0.530

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.020 43.564   17 -0.029   17 -0.042   16 -0.037   16 0.4961   30  3.816   27 -0.749    4  0.674
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.039 41.207   18 -0.072   18 -0.081   20 -0.101   18 0.4918    2  4.054    8  0.388   27 -0.590
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.009 43.872   21 -0.142   21 -0.150   19 -0.072   21 0.4862   28  3.885   24 -0.450    9  0.306
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.081 40.781   28 -0.715   28 -0.726   29 -0.763   28 0.4326   26  3.895   30 -1.094   24 -0.432
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.075 41.436   30 -0.744   30 -0.752   30 -0.860   30 0.4310   12  3.977   28 -0.773   30 -0.947

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 22 10066  9255 -0.006 41.068    3  0.602    3  0.590    3  0.592    3 0.5555   24  3.921    7  0.393    3  0.791
KNICKS        54 33 10026  9685 -0.008 42.272    6  0.284    6  0.278   11  0.200    7 0.5267   19  3.949   13  0.140   10  0.260
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.052 40.564   24 -0.358   24 -0.368   24 -0.305   24 0.4654   17  3.952   22 -0.346   19 -0.264
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.053 41.176   25 -0.472   25 -0.472   26 -0.568   25 0.4547   29  3.875   29 -0.998   17 -0.138
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.062 40.662   26 -0.540   26 -0.551   25 -0.529   26 0.4476   18  3.949   26 -0.588   25 -0.470

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   257 174 0.596    1  0.201
NORTHWEST DIVISION 230 194 0.542    2  0.162
PACIFIC DIVISION   231 194 0.544    3  0.116
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 197 225 0.467    4 -0.046
ATLANTIC DIVISION  199 221 0.474    5 -0.105
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 159 265 0.375    6 -0.387

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.143 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Apr 30 05:30:19 2025
games through: Tue Apr 29 2025

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