Dolphin Ratings - Major League Soccer

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PORTLAND        8  4 12 36 26  0.071 12.091    1  0.633    1  0.119    2  0.160    1 0.5269  0.232  0.172  0.148  0.000
REAL SALT LAKE 13  8  6 48 33  0.060 13.323    2  0.632    2  0.115    1  0.211    2 0.5262  0.520  0.468 -0.046  0.000
COLORADO       10  6  9 32 25  0.022 12.171    3  0.561    4  0.078    4  0.108    4 0.5201 -0.059 -0.094  0.310  0.000
FC DALLAS       9  6  9 34 35  0.047 12.100    4  0.560    3  0.081   10  0.035    6 0.5187  0.433  0.215 -0.145  0.000
MONTREAL       12  6  5 41 33 -0.084 10.281    5  0.551    5  0.073    7  0.066    3 0.5222  0.683  0.477 -0.345  0.000
LOS ANGELES    11  9  4 39 32  0.110 12.473    6  0.542    6  0.069    3  0.138    5 0.5187  0.444  0.328 -0.052  0.000
SEATTLE        10  8  4 29 26  0.043 11.016    7  0.519    7  0.057    8  0.045    7 0.5154  0.133 -0.019  0.110  0.000
VANCOUVER       9  8  6 32 29  0.025 11.354    8  0.488    8  0.036    9  0.043    8 0.5081  0.244  0.065  0.021  0.000
KANSAS CITY    11  9  6 36 26 -0.018 12.259    9  0.473   12  0.024    6  0.096   11 0.5063  0.060 -0.023  0.214  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   10  8  8 37 37 -0.019 12.427   10  0.471    9  0.029   12  0.025   12 0.5047  0.450  0.220 -0.170  0.000
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW YORK       11  9  6 38 34 -0.001 12.605   11  0.468   10  0.027   11  0.033   10 0.5065  0.370  0.158 -0.092  0.000
HOUSTON        10  8  6 29 28 -0.018 11.558   12  0.466   11  0.027   13 -0.003    9 0.5067  0.070 -0.115  0.108  0.000
NEW ENGLAND    10  8  6 31 20 -0.051 10.965   13  0.442   14  0.003    5  0.103   13 0.5025 -0.141 -0.154  0.360  0.000
CHICAGO        10 10  4 30 34 -0.033 11.625   14  0.425   13  0.007   14 -0.075   14 0.4961  0.280 -0.024 -0.127  0.000
SAN JOSE        8 10  6 24 34 -0.020 11.803   15  0.335   15 -0.051   16 -0.144   15 0.4904  0.049 -0.271 -0.017  0.000
COLUMBUS        7 12  5 27 34 -0.050 11.479   16  0.226   16 -0.124   15 -0.104   16 0.4708  0.208 -0.111 -0.097  0.000
CHIVAS USA      5 13  6 24 43  0.023 12.507   17  0.193   17 -0.137   18 -0.235   17 0.4670  0.328 -0.145 -0.325  0.000
TORONTO FC      3 12  9 20 33 -0.028 11.839   18  0.111   18 -0.191   17 -0.208   18 0.4536 -0.086 -0.428  0.013  0.000
DC UNITED       3 16  5 14 39 -0.032 12.143   19  0.000   19 -0.257   19 -0.343   19 0.4361 -0.135 -0.596 -0.090  0.000

WESTERN CONFERENCE
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PORTLAND        8  4 12 36 26  0.071 12.091    1  0.633    1  0.119    2  0.160    1 0.5269  0.232  0.172  0.148  0.000
REAL SALT LAKE 13  8  6 48 33  0.060 13.323    2  0.632    2  0.115    1  0.211    2 0.5262  0.520  0.468 -0.046  0.000
COLORADO       10  6  9 32 25  0.022 12.171    3  0.561    4  0.078    4  0.108    4 0.5201 -0.059 -0.094  0.310  0.000
FC DALLAS       9  6  9 34 35  0.047 12.100    4  0.560    3  0.081   10  0.035    6 0.5187  0.433  0.215 -0.145  0.000
LOS ANGELES    11  9  4 39 32  0.110 12.473    6  0.542    6  0.069    3  0.138    5 0.5187  0.444  0.328 -0.052  0.000
SEATTLE        10  8  4 29 26  0.043 11.016    7  0.519    7  0.057    8  0.045    7 0.5154  0.133 -0.019  0.110  0.000
VANCOUVER       9  8  6 32 29  0.025 11.354    8  0.488    8  0.036    9  0.043    8 0.5081  0.244  0.065  0.021  0.000
SAN JOSE        8 10  6 24 34 -0.020 11.803   15  0.335   15 -0.051   16 -0.144   15 0.4904  0.049 -0.271 -0.017  0.000
CHIVAS USA      5 13  6 24 43  0.023 12.507   17  0.193   17 -0.137   18 -0.235   17 0.4670  0.328 -0.145 -0.325  0.000

EASTERN CONFERENCE
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MONTREAL       12  6  5 41 33 -0.084 10.281    5  0.551    5  0.073    7  0.066    3 0.5222  0.683  0.477 -0.345  0.000
KANSAS CITY    11  9  6 36 26 -0.018 12.259    9  0.473   12  0.024    6  0.096   11 0.5063  0.060 -0.023  0.214  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   10  8  8 37 37 -0.019 12.427   10  0.471    9  0.029   12  0.025   12 0.5047  0.450  0.220 -0.170  0.000
NEW YORK       11  9  6 38 34 -0.001 12.605   11  0.468   10  0.027   11  0.033   10 0.5065  0.370  0.158 -0.092  0.000
HOUSTON        10  8  6 29 28 -0.018 11.558   12  0.466   11  0.027   13 -0.003    9 0.5067  0.070 -0.115  0.108  0.000
NEW ENGLAND    10  8  6 31 20 -0.051 10.965   13  0.442   14  0.003    5  0.103   13 0.5025 -0.141 -0.154  0.360  0.000
CHICAGO        10 10  4 30 34 -0.033 11.625   14  0.425   13  0.007   14 -0.075   14 0.4961  0.280 -0.024 -0.127  0.000
COLUMBUS        7 12  5 27 34 -0.050 11.479   16  0.226   16 -0.124   15 -0.104   16 0.4708  0.208 -0.111 -0.097  0.000
TORONTO FC      3 12  9 20 33 -0.028 11.839   18  0.111   18 -0.191   17 -0.208   18 0.4536 -0.086 -0.428  0.013  0.000
DC UNITED       3 16  5 14 39 -0.032 12.143   19  0.000   19 -0.257   19 -0.343   19 0.4361 -0.135 -0.596 -0.090  0.000

DIVISION            W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
WESTERN CONFERENCE 83 72 62 0.525    1  0.083
EASTERN CONFERENCE 87 98 60 0.478    2 -0.076

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.383 points in main ratings (0.205 for semineutral)
     0.034 points in improved RPI (0.020 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Oct  9 20:01:32 2013
games through: Sun Aug 25 2013

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