Dolphin Ratings - Major League Soccer

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LOS ANGELES    22  5 11 51 30  0.014 18.786    1  0.670    1  0.199    1  0.202    1 0.5528 -0.194 -0.091  0.495  0.000
SEATTLE        20  7  9 61 39 -0.002 17.655    2  0.579    2  0.154    2  0.151    2 0.5410  0.390  0.292  0.010  0.000
HOUSTON        14 10 13 47 42  0.029 18.894    3  0.396    3  0.065    5  0.039    5 0.5151  0.132 -0.028  0.107  0.000
KANSAS CITY    15 10 11 53 41  0.008 17.954    4  0.390    4  0.057    3  0.099    4 0.5172  0.279  0.148  0.051  0.000
REAL SALT LAKE 16 12  8 48 39  0.045 18.457    5  0.389    5  0.055    4  0.099    3 0.5175  0.093  0.002  0.195  0.000
FC DALLAS      15 12  7 42 39 -0.006 16.917    6  0.349    6  0.036    7  0.026    6 0.5095  0.082 -0.079  0.130  0.000
COLORADO       12 11 13 44 45  0.003 18.157    7  0.286    7 -0.003   10 -0.018    7 0.5034  0.157 -0.067  0.030  0.000
NEW YORK       10 11 17 53 51  0.035 19.501    8  0.284    8 -0.006    6  0.039    9 0.5011  0.385  0.175 -0.098  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   11 10 16 45 39 -0.017 18.248    9  0.283    9 -0.007    8  0.021    8 0.5014  0.008 -0.137  0.180  0.000
CHICAGO         9  9 16 46 45 -0.007 16.950   10  0.277   10 -0.009    9  0.005   10 0.4991  0.337  0.101 -0.091  0.000
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLUMBUS       12 13  8 41 44 -0.024 16.320   11  0.237   11 -0.031   11 -0.036   11 0.4942  0.227 -0.030 -0.042  0.000
PORTLAND       11 14  8 38 46  0.008 16.819   12  0.232   12 -0.032   15 -0.061   12 0.4900  0.205 -0.073 -0.050  0.000
SAN JOSE        8 11 14 40 43  0.001 16.685   13  0.206   13 -0.050   13 -0.042   13 0.4898  0.199 -0.058 -0.026  0.000
DC UNITED       8 13 12 47 52 -0.018 16.462   14  0.158   14 -0.076   14 -0.055   14 0.4807  0.565  0.242 -0.352  0.000
CHIVAS USA      8 14 12 41 43 -0.010 17.025   15  0.145   15 -0.083   12 -0.041   15 0.4783  0.168 -0.081 -0.001  0.000
TORONTO FC      6 13 14 34 57 -0.025 16.699   16  0.099   16 -0.098   18 -0.192   16 0.4736  0.357 -0.079 -0.304  0.000
NEW ENGLAND     5 16 13 37 57 -0.022 17.193   17  0.008   17 -0.144   17 -0.182   17 0.4605  0.397 -0.036 -0.329  0.000
VANCOUVER       6 17 10 35 51 -0.022 16.681   18  0.000   18 -0.149   16 -0.166   18 0.4591  0.228 -0.160 -0.173  0.000

WESTERN CONFERENCE
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LOS ANGELES    22  5 11 51 30  0.014 18.786    1  0.670    1  0.199    1  0.202    1 0.5528 -0.194 -0.091  0.495  0.000
SEATTLE        20  7  9 61 39 -0.002 17.655    2  0.579    2  0.154    2  0.151    2 0.5410  0.390  0.292  0.010  0.000
REAL SALT LAKE 16 12  8 48 39  0.045 18.457    5  0.389    5  0.055    4  0.099    3 0.5175  0.093  0.002  0.195  0.000
FC DALLAS      15 12  7 42 39 -0.006 16.917    6  0.349    6  0.036    7  0.026    6 0.5095  0.082 -0.079  0.130  0.000
COLORADO       12 11 13 44 45  0.003 18.157    7  0.286    7 -0.003   10 -0.018    7 0.5034  0.157 -0.067  0.030  0.000
PORTLAND       11 14  8 38 46  0.008 16.819   12  0.232   12 -0.032   15 -0.061   12 0.4900  0.205 -0.073 -0.050  0.000
SAN JOSE        8 11 14 40 43  0.001 16.685   13  0.206   13 -0.050   13 -0.042   13 0.4898  0.199 -0.058 -0.026  0.000
CHIVAS USA      8 14 12 41 43 -0.010 17.025   15  0.145   15 -0.083   12 -0.041   15 0.4783  0.168 -0.081 -0.001  0.000
VANCOUVER       6 17 10 35 51 -0.022 16.681   18  0.000   18 -0.149   16 -0.166   18 0.4591  0.228 -0.160 -0.173  0.000

EASTERN CONFERENCE
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON        14 10 13 47 42  0.029 18.894    3  0.396    3  0.065    5  0.039    5 0.5151  0.132 -0.028  0.107  0.000
KANSAS CITY    15 10 11 53 41  0.008 17.954    4  0.390    4  0.057    3  0.099    4 0.5172  0.279  0.148  0.051  0.000
NEW YORK       10 11 17 53 51  0.035 19.501    8  0.284    8 -0.006    6  0.039    9 0.5011  0.385  0.175 -0.098  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   11 10 16 45 39 -0.017 18.248    9  0.283    9 -0.007    8  0.021    8 0.5014  0.008 -0.137  0.180  0.000
CHICAGO         9  9 16 46 45 -0.007 16.950   10  0.277   10 -0.009    9  0.005   10 0.4991  0.337  0.101 -0.091  0.000
COLUMBUS       12 13  8 41 44 -0.024 16.320   11  0.237   11 -0.031   11 -0.036   11 0.4942  0.227 -0.030 -0.042  0.000
DC UNITED       8 13 12 47 52 -0.018 16.462   14  0.158   14 -0.076   14 -0.055   14 0.4807  0.565  0.242 -0.352  0.000
TORONTO FC      6 13 14 34 57 -0.025 16.699   16  0.099   16 -0.098   18 -0.192   16 0.4736  0.357 -0.079 -0.304  0.000
NEW ENGLAND     5 16 13 37 57 -0.022 17.193   17  0.008   17 -0.144   17 -0.182   17 0.4605  0.397 -0.036 -0.329  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
WESTERN CONFERENCE 118 103  92 0.524    1  0.039
EASTERN CONFERENCE  90 105 120 0.476    2 -0.055

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.299 points in main ratings (0.205 for semineutral)
     0.029 points in improved RPI (0.020 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Dec 11 19:28:56 2011
games through: Sun Nov 20 2011

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