Dolphin Ratings - Major League Soccer

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM         W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND 10  4  3 25 19  0.040  8.629    1  0.052    1  0.039    1  0.038    1 0.5440  0.271  0.074  0.003  0.000
COLUMBUS     8  5  4 27 25 -0.038  8.285    2  0.032    3  0.017    8 -0.001    2 0.5184  0.640  0.360 -0.363  0.000
HOUSTON      5  4 10 19 19  0.080 10.122    3  0.031    2  0.017    4  0.011    4 0.5130 -0.324 -0.366  0.388  0.000
CHICAGO      7  5  4 24 14  0.002  7.862    4  0.029    4  0.011    2  0.038    3 0.5150  0.193  0.012  0.064  0.000
KANSAS CITY  5  5  6 17 21  0.036  8.333    5  0.026    5  0.008   11 -0.008    5 0.5074  0.033 -0.154  0.138  0.000
CHIVAS USA   6  6  4 22 21 -0.041  7.758    6  0.021    7 -0.001    5  0.003    8 0.4954  0.198 -0.019  0.025  0.000
NEW YORK     5  6  6 18 26  0.021  8.812    7  0.020    6 -0.001   12 -0.020    7 0.4964  0.133 -0.092  0.052  0.000
SALT LAKE    6  6  6 20 19 -0.035  8.793    8  0.018    8 -0.005    6 -0.001    9 0.4949 -0.148 -0.270  0.269  0.000
LOS ANGELES  6  6  5 36 33 -0.084  7.961    9  0.016    9 -0.008    7 -0.001   10 0.4908  1.138  0.892 -0.894  0.000
TORONTO FC   6  6  4 19 20 -0.061  7.658   10  0.015   11 -0.010    9 -0.003    6 0.4972 -0.047 -0.204  0.198  0.000
TEAM         W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
D.C.         7  8  3 28 28 -0.051  8.799   11  0.014   10 -0.008   13 -0.021   11 0.4893  0.667  0.367 -0.410  0.000
COLORADO     6  8  3 27 23  0.009  8.484   12  0.013   13 -0.012    3  0.022   13 0.4854  0.442  0.202 -0.158  0.000
DALLAS       4  6  7 21 24  0.018  8.699   13  0.011   12 -0.011   10 -0.005   12 0.4865  0.395  0.135 -0.145  0.000
SAN JOSE     3  9  5 11 22  0.100  9.449   14  0.000   14 -0.025   14 -0.039   14 0.4667 -0.394 -0.456  0.379  0.000

WESTERN CONFERENCE
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM         W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON      5  4 10 19 19  0.080 10.122    3  0.031    2  0.017    4  0.011    4 0.5130 -0.324 -0.366  0.388  0.000
CHIVAS USA   6  6  4 22 21 -0.041  7.758    6  0.021    7 -0.001    5  0.003    8 0.4954  0.198 -0.019  0.025  0.000
SALT LAKE    6  6  6 20 19 -0.035  8.793    8  0.018    8 -0.005    6 -0.001    9 0.4949 -0.148 -0.270  0.269  0.000
LOS ANGELES  6  6  5 36 33 -0.084  7.961    9  0.016    9 -0.008    7 -0.001   10 0.4908  1.138  0.892 -0.894  0.000
COLORADO     6  8  3 27 23  0.009  8.484   12  0.013   13 -0.012    3  0.022   13 0.4854  0.442  0.202 -0.158  0.000
DALLAS       4  6  7 21 24  0.018  8.699   13  0.011   12 -0.011   10 -0.005   12 0.4865  0.395  0.135 -0.145  0.000
SAN JOSE     3  9  5 11 22  0.100  9.449   14  0.000   14 -0.025   14 -0.039   14 0.4667 -0.394 -0.456  0.379  0.000

EASTERN CONFERENCE
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM         W  L  T PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND 10  4  3 25 19  0.040  8.629    1  0.052    1  0.039    1  0.038    1 0.5440  0.271  0.074  0.003  0.000
COLUMBUS     8  5  4 27 25 -0.038  8.285    2  0.032    3  0.017    8 -0.001    2 0.5184  0.640  0.360 -0.363  0.000
CHICAGO      7  5  4 24 14  0.002  7.862    4  0.029    4  0.011    2  0.038    3 0.5150  0.193  0.012  0.064  0.000
KANSAS CITY  5  5  6 17 21  0.036  8.333    5  0.026    5  0.008   11 -0.008    5 0.5074  0.033 -0.154  0.138  0.000
NEW YORK     5  6  6 18 26  0.021  8.812    7  0.020    6 -0.001   12 -0.020    7 0.4964  0.133 -0.092  0.052  0.000
TORONTO FC   6  6  4 19 20 -0.061  7.658   10  0.015   11 -0.010    9 -0.003    6 0.4972 -0.047 -0.204  0.198  0.000
D.C.         7  8  3 28 28 -0.051  8.799   11  0.014   10 -0.008   13 -0.021   11 0.4893  0.667  0.367 -0.410  0.000

DIVISION            W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
EASTERN CONFERENCE 48 39 30 0.538    1  0.020
WESTERN CONFERENCE 36 45 40 0.463    2 -0.018

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.304 points in main ratings (0.205 for semineutral)
     0.031 points in improved RPI (0.020 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jul 24 19:55:25 2008
games through: Wed Jul 23 2008

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