Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON            107  69 966 703  0.073 93.227    1  0.945    1  0.231    1  0.304    1 0.5317  0.354  0.109  0.499  0.350
CLEVELAND         102  71 867 771  0.054 90.537    2  0.896    2  0.184    3  0.143    2 0.5252  0.430  0.013  0.273  0.190
N.Y. YANKEES       94  71 976 794  0.068 87.161    3  0.849    3  0.160    2  0.231    3 0.5217  0.696  0.350  0.112  0.199
L.A. ANGELS        94  71 826 750  0.054 86.395    4  0.794    4  0.149    4  0.122    4 0.5211  0.448  0.008  0.237  0.183
SEATTLE            88  74 794 813  0.064 85.616    5  0.614    5  0.111    9  0.046    5 0.5148  0.695  0.164 -0.072 -0.076
DETROIT            88  74 887 797  0.046 84.317    6  0.585    6  0.100    5  0.119    6 0.5144  0.701  0.243 -0.005  0.121
TORONTO            83  79 753 699  0.080 86.494    7  0.515    7  0.072    6  0.115   10 0.5081  0.430 -0.016  0.245 -0.056
COLORADO           97  77 904 803 -0.034 85.062    8  0.509    8  0.072    7  0.068    7 0.5120  0.551  0.047  0.088  0.230
ARIZONA            93  76 736 756 -0.036 82.559    9  0.473    9  0.057   19 -0.034    8 0.5090  0.366 -0.219  0.151  0.144
SAN DIEGO          89  74 741 666 -0.048 78.806   10  0.469   10  0.043    8  0.050    9 0.5085  0.623  0.097  0.002 -0.517
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. METS          88  75 804 753 -0.062 77.926   11  0.458   11  0.023   12  0.022   11 0.5049  0.662  0.107 -0.064 -0.210
PHILADELPHIA       89  76 900 837 -0.068 78.506   12  0.457   12  0.020   10  0.026   12 0.5045  0.781  0.232 -0.180  0.021
MINNESOTA          79  83 718 725  0.057 85.187   13  0.456   13  0.016   11  0.025   13 0.5017  0.505 -0.038  0.089 -0.198
ATLANTA            84  78 810 733 -0.053 78.049   14  0.451   14 -0.005   13  0.021   14 0.5009  0.669  0.113 -0.072 -0.215
L.A. DODGERS       82  80 735 727 -0.036 79.207   15  0.447   16 -0.015   18 -0.020   15 0.4997  0.477 -0.109  0.069  0.053
OAKLAND            76  86 741 758  0.055 85.108   16  0.446   15 -0.014   14  0.011   16 0.4973  0.637  0.072 -0.050 -0.299
TEXAS              75  87 816 844  0.062 85.580   17  0.443   17 -0.021   16 -0.010   18 0.4961  0.727  0.141 -0.161 -0.008
CHICAGO CUBS       86  80 761 708 -0.100 76.921   18  0.437   18 -0.036   15 -0.006   17 0.4968  0.303 -0.244  0.232  0.241
MILWAUKEE          83  79 801 776 -0.095 75.435   19  0.432   19 -0.042   20 -0.040   19 0.4948  0.619  0.003 -0.084  0.010
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  72  90 693 839  0.073 86.398   20  0.429   20 -0.044   23 -0.087   20 0.4918  0.444 -0.204  0.031  0.210
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE          69  92 749 860  0.094 87.109   21  0.422   21 -0.056   17 -0.015   21 0.4899  0.549 -0.038  0.007  0.230
KANSAS CITY        69  93 706 778  0.063 85.698   22  0.379   22 -0.080   21 -0.046   23 0.4877  0.419 -0.185  0.094  0.110
ST. LOUIS          79  85 730 832 -0.077 77.698   23  0.369   23 -0.082   27 -0.156   22 0.4885  0.647 -0.086 -0.226 -0.116
TAMPA BAY          66  96 782 944  0.107 88.601   24  0.363   24 -0.083   24 -0.088   24 0.4850  0.826  0.165 -0.341 -0.110
WASHINGTON         73  89 673 783 -0.042 79.000   25  0.269   25 -0.110   29 -0.158   26 0.4845  0.577 -0.154 -0.162 -0.291
SAN FRANCISCO      71  91 683 720 -0.023 80.116   26  0.253   26 -0.116   22 -0.066   25 0.4846  0.429 -0.197  0.065 -0.065
HOUSTON            73  89 723 813 -0.078 76.661   27  0.164   27 -0.132   26 -0.153   27 0.4817  0.645 -0.084 -0.221 -0.214
FLORIDA            71  91 790 891 -0.054 78.191   28  0.144   28 -0.136   28 -0.157   29 0.4808  0.735  0.002 -0.315  0.030
CINCINNATI         72  90 783 853 -0.075 76.860   29  0.137   29 -0.139   25 -0.126   28 0.4809  0.640 -0.062 -0.189  0.134
PITTSBURGH         68  94 724 846 -0.074 76.983   30  0.000   30 -0.181   30 -0.189   30 0.4749  0.651 -0.114 -0.265 -0.082

NL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLORADO           97  77 904 803 -0.034 85.062    8  0.509    8  0.072    7  0.068    7 0.5120  0.551  0.047  0.088  0.230
ARIZONA            93  76 736 756 -0.036 82.559    9  0.473    9  0.057   19 -0.034    8 0.5090  0.366 -0.219  0.151  0.144
SAN DIEGO          89  74 741 666 -0.048 78.806   10  0.469   10  0.043    8  0.050    9 0.5085  0.623  0.097  0.002 -0.517
L.A. DODGERS       82  80 735 727 -0.036 79.207   15  0.447   16 -0.015   18 -0.020   15 0.4997  0.477 -0.109  0.069  0.053
SAN FRANCISCO      71  91 683 720 -0.023 80.116   26  0.253   26 -0.116   22 -0.066   25 0.4846  0.429 -0.197  0.065 -0.065

NL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO CUBS       86  80 761 708 -0.100 76.921   18  0.437   18 -0.036   15 -0.006   17 0.4968  0.303 -0.244  0.232  0.241
MILWAUKEE          83  79 801 776 -0.095 75.435   19  0.432   19 -0.042   20 -0.040   19 0.4948  0.619  0.003 -0.084  0.010
ST. LOUIS          79  85 730 832 -0.077 77.698   23  0.369   23 -0.082   27 -0.156   22 0.4885  0.647 -0.086 -0.226 -0.116
HOUSTON            73  89 723 813 -0.078 76.661   27  0.164   27 -0.132   26 -0.153   27 0.4817  0.645 -0.084 -0.221 -0.214
CINCINNATI         72  90 783 853 -0.075 76.860   29  0.137   29 -0.139   25 -0.126   28 0.4809  0.640 -0.062 -0.189  0.134
PITTSBURGH         68  94 724 846 -0.074 76.983   30  0.000   30 -0.181   30 -0.189   30 0.4749  0.651 -0.114 -0.265 -0.082

NL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. METS          88  75 804 753 -0.062 77.926   11  0.458   11  0.023   12  0.022   11 0.5049  0.662  0.107 -0.064 -0.210
PHILADELPHIA       89  76 900 837 -0.068 78.506   12  0.457   12  0.020   10  0.026   12 0.5045  0.781  0.232 -0.180  0.021
ATLANTA            84  78 810 733 -0.053 78.049   14  0.451   14 -0.005   13  0.021   14 0.5009  0.669  0.113 -0.072 -0.215
WASHINGTON         73  89 673 783 -0.042 79.000   25  0.269   25 -0.110   29 -0.158   26 0.4845  0.577 -0.154 -0.162 -0.291
FLORIDA            71  91 790 891 -0.054 78.191   28  0.144   28 -0.136   28 -0.157   29 0.4808  0.735  0.002 -0.315  0.030

AL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. ANGELS        94  71 826 750  0.054 86.395    4  0.794    4  0.149    4  0.122    4 0.5211  0.448  0.008  0.237  0.183
SEATTLE            88  74 794 813  0.064 85.616    5  0.614    5  0.111    9  0.046    5 0.5148  0.695  0.164 -0.072 -0.076
OAKLAND            76  86 741 758  0.055 85.108   16  0.446   15 -0.014   14  0.011   16 0.4973  0.637  0.072 -0.050 -0.299
TEXAS              75  87 816 844  0.062 85.580   17  0.443   17 -0.021   16 -0.010   18 0.4961  0.727  0.141 -0.161 -0.008

AL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND         102  71 867 771  0.054 90.537    2  0.896    2  0.184    3  0.143    2 0.5252  0.430  0.013  0.273  0.190
DETROIT            88  74 887 797  0.046 84.317    6  0.585    6  0.100    5  0.119    6 0.5144  0.701  0.243 -0.005  0.121
MINNESOTA          79  83 718 725  0.057 85.187   13  0.456   13  0.016   11  0.025   13 0.5017  0.505 -0.038  0.089 -0.198
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  72  90 693 839  0.073 86.398   20  0.429   20 -0.044   23 -0.087   20 0.4918  0.444 -0.204  0.031  0.210
KANSAS CITY        69  93 706 778  0.063 85.698   22  0.379   22 -0.080   21 -0.046   23 0.4877  0.419 -0.185  0.094  0.110

AL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON            107  69 966 703  0.073 93.227    1  0.945    1  0.231    1  0.304    1 0.5317  0.354  0.109  0.499  0.350
N.Y. YANKEES       94  71 976 794  0.068 87.161    3  0.849    3  0.160    2  0.231    3 0.5217  0.696  0.350  0.112  0.199
TORONTO            83  79 753 699  0.080 86.494    7  0.515    7  0.072    6  0.115   10 0.5081  0.430 -0.016  0.245 -0.056
BALTIMORE          69  92 749 860  0.094 87.109   21  0.422   21 -0.056   17 -0.015   21 0.4899  0.549 -0.038  0.007  0.230
TAMPA BAY          66  96 782 944  0.107 88.601   24  0.363   24 -0.083   24 -0.088   24 0.4850  0.826  0.165 -0.341 -0.110

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    419 407 0.507    1  0.146
AL WEST    333 318 0.512    2  0.058
AL CENTRAL 410 411 0.499    3  0.042
NL WEST    432 398 0.520    4 -0.000
NL EAST    405 409 0.498    5 -0.066
NL CENTRAL 461 517 0.471    6 -0.150

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.073 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:20:07 2007
games through: Mon Oct 29 2007

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