Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT           103  72 877 720  0.073 92.453    1  0.946    1  0.197    1  0.217    1 0.5315  0.497  0.131  0.303 -0.103
N.Y. YANKEES       98  68 944 789  0.050 86.245    2  0.921    2  0.181    2  0.190    2 0.5307  0.838  0.441 -0.061 -0.216
MINNESOTA          96  69 808 699  0.071 87.141    3  0.918    3  0.181    3  0.160    3 0.5293  0.480  0.059  0.262 -0.098
OAKLAND            97  73 801 759  0.090 91.170    4  0.905    4  0.175    6  0.115    4 0.5288  0.555  0.082  0.148 -0.134
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  72 868 794  0.077 85.928    5  0.792    5  0.140    5  0.136    6 0.5232  0.677  0.221  0.051  0.054
L.A. ANGELS        90  73 770 734  0.078 86.672    6  0.767    6  0.135    8  0.109    5 0.5233  0.583  0.102  0.115 -0.230
N.Y. METS         103  69 880 770 -0.066 81.627    7  0.687    7  0.120   10  0.061    9 0.5144  0.672  0.140 -0.019 -0.232
TORONTO            87  75 809 754  0.055 84.620    8  0.588    8  0.095    9  0.096    7 0.5183  0.536  0.046  0.146  0.045
BOSTON             86  77 820 830  0.059 85.559    9  0.539    9  0.083   11  0.031    8 0.5155  0.660  0.099 -0.036  0.002
TEXAS              80  82 835 784  0.086 86.658   10  0.491   10  0.047    7  0.110   10 0.5112  0.640  0.158  0.061  0.074
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE            78  84 756 792  0.090 87.063   11  0.478   11  0.028   13  0.023   11 0.5078  0.689  0.120 -0.073 -0.257
L.A. DODGERS       89  77 836 770 -0.057 79.412   12  0.475   12  0.022   12  0.028   13 0.5002  0.559 -0.001  0.057  0.132
CLEVELAND          78  84 870 782  0.078 85.970   13  0.474   14  0.020    4  0.138   12 0.5071  0.748  0.294 -0.019 -0.097
SAN DIEGO          89  77 737 692 -0.059 79.343   14  0.473   13  0.021   14  0.003   14 0.4993  0.451 -0.124  0.130 -0.231
ST. LOUIS          94  83 845 806 -0.086 82.674   15  0.466   15 -0.006   17 -0.006   15 0.4966  0.556 -0.038  0.025 -0.029
PHILADELPHIA       85  78 866 815 -0.065 77.473   16  0.465   16 -0.009   15 -0.001   16 0.4966  0.671  0.078 -0.079  0.082
HOUSTON            82  80 735 719 -0.089 75.552   17  0.445   17 -0.049   20 -0.052   18 0.4899  0.389 -0.232  0.129  0.114
ATLANTA            79  83 848 805 -0.068 76.866   18  0.430   19 -0.064   16 -0.003   19 0.4884  0.756  0.162 -0.167 -0.099
BALTIMORE          70  92 768 899  0.075 86.249   19  0.428   18 -0.063   22 -0.076   17 0.4944  0.727  0.059 -0.211 -0.057
FLORIDA            78  84 758 772 -0.062 77.342   20  0.418   20 -0.070   21 -0.060   20 0.4870  0.621 -0.030 -0.090 -0.181
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CINCINNATI         80  82 749 801 -0.091 75.552   21  0.415   21 -0.071   25 -0.130   22 0.4859  0.442 -0.265  0.004  0.297
COLORADO           76  86 813 812 -0.050 78.052   22  0.393   22 -0.083   18 -0.051   23 0.4845  0.552 -0.086 -0.016  0.293
ARIZONA            76  86 773 788 -0.055 77.773   23  0.388   24 -0.085   19 -0.052   25 0.4839  0.456 -0.175  0.071  0.290
SAN FRANCISCO      76  86 749 795 -0.050 78.087   24  0.387   23 -0.083   23 -0.079   24 0.4844  0.564 -0.103 -0.054  0.043
MILWAUKEE          75  87 730 833 -0.083 76.091   25  0.263   25 -0.116   28 -0.162   27 0.4797  0.571 -0.179 -0.145  0.087
KANSAS CITY        62 100 757 971  0.117 89.106   26  0.261   26 -0.117   26 -0.135   21 0.4859  0.657 -0.070 -0.200  0.244
WASHINGTON         71  91 746 872 -0.046 78.445   27  0.186   27 -0.132   27 -0.161   28 0.4775  0.692 -0.061 -0.261 -0.109
TAMPA BAY          61 101 689 856  0.082 86.720   28  0.105   28 -0.152   24 -0.122   26 0.4817  0.511 -0.195 -0.049  0.038
PITTSBURGH         67  95 691 797 -0.074 76.681   29  0.010   29 -0.190   29 -0.175   29 0.4691  0.447 -0.305 -0.044  0.087
CHICAGO CUBS       66  96 716 834 -0.071 76.959   30  0.000   30 -0.198   30 -0.190   30 0.4679  0.495 -0.277 -0.102  0.192

NL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. DODGERS       89  77 836 770 -0.057 79.412   12  0.475   12  0.022   12  0.028   13 0.5002  0.559 -0.001  0.057  0.132
SAN DIEGO          89  77 737 692 -0.059 79.343   14  0.473   13  0.021   14  0.003   14 0.4993  0.451 -0.124  0.130 -0.231
COLORADO           76  86 813 812 -0.050 78.052   22  0.393   22 -0.083   18 -0.051   23 0.4845  0.552 -0.086 -0.016  0.293
ARIZONA            76  86 773 788 -0.055 77.773   23  0.388   24 -0.085   19 -0.052   25 0.4839  0.456 -0.175  0.071  0.290
SAN FRANCISCO      76  86 749 795 -0.050 78.087   24  0.387   23 -0.083   23 -0.079   24 0.4844  0.564 -0.103 -0.054  0.043

NL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS          94  83 845 806 -0.086 82.674   15  0.466   15 -0.006   17 -0.006   15 0.4966  0.556 -0.038  0.025 -0.029
HOUSTON            82  80 735 719 -0.089 75.552   17  0.445   17 -0.049   20 -0.052   18 0.4899  0.389 -0.232  0.129  0.114
CINCINNATI         80  82 749 801 -0.091 75.552   21  0.415   21 -0.071   25 -0.130   22 0.4859  0.442 -0.265  0.004  0.297
MILWAUKEE          75  87 730 833 -0.083 76.091   25  0.263   25 -0.116   28 -0.162   27 0.4797  0.571 -0.179 -0.145  0.087
PITTSBURGH         67  95 691 797 -0.074 76.681   29  0.010   29 -0.190   29 -0.175   29 0.4691  0.447 -0.305 -0.044  0.087
CHICAGO CUBS       66  96 716 834 -0.071 76.959   30  0.000   30 -0.198   30 -0.190   30 0.4679  0.495 -0.277 -0.102  0.192

NL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. METS         103  69 880 770 -0.066 81.627    7  0.687    7  0.120   10  0.061    9 0.5144  0.672  0.140 -0.019 -0.232
PHILADELPHIA       85  78 866 815 -0.065 77.473   16  0.465   16 -0.009   15 -0.001   16 0.4966  0.671  0.078 -0.079  0.082
ATLANTA            79  83 848 805 -0.068 76.866   18  0.430   19 -0.064   16 -0.003   19 0.4884  0.756  0.162 -0.167 -0.099
FLORIDA            78  84 758 772 -0.062 77.342   20  0.418   20 -0.070   21 -0.060   20 0.4870  0.621 -0.030 -0.090 -0.181
WASHINGTON         71  91 746 872 -0.046 78.445   27  0.186   27 -0.132   27 -0.161   28 0.4775  0.692 -0.061 -0.261 -0.109

AL WEST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND            97  73 801 759  0.090 91.170    4  0.905    4  0.175    6  0.115    4 0.5288  0.555  0.082  0.148 -0.134
L.A. ANGELS        90  73 770 734  0.078 86.672    6  0.767    6  0.135    8  0.109    5 0.5233  0.583  0.102  0.115 -0.230
TEXAS              80  82 835 784  0.086 86.658   10  0.491   10  0.047    7  0.110   10 0.5112  0.640  0.158  0.061  0.074
SEATTLE            78  84 756 792  0.090 87.063   11  0.478   11  0.028   13  0.023   11 0.5078  0.689  0.120 -0.073 -0.257

AL CENTRAL
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT           103  72 877 720  0.073 92.453    1  0.946    1  0.197    1  0.217    1 0.5315  0.497  0.131  0.303 -0.103
MINNESOTA          96  69 808 699  0.071 87.141    3  0.918    3  0.181    3  0.160    3 0.5293  0.480  0.059  0.262 -0.098
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  90  72 868 794  0.077 85.928    5  0.792    5  0.140    5  0.136    6 0.5232  0.677  0.221  0.051  0.054
CLEVELAND          78  84 870 782  0.078 85.970   13  0.474   14  0.020    4  0.138   12 0.5071  0.748  0.294 -0.019 -0.097
KANSAS CITY        62 100 757 971  0.117 89.106   26  0.261   26 -0.117   26 -0.135   21 0.4859  0.657 -0.070 -0.200  0.244

AL EAST
                                                  STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. YANKEES       98  68 944 789  0.050 86.245    2  0.921    2  0.181    2  0.190    2 0.5307  0.838  0.441 -0.061 -0.216
TORONTO            87  75 809 754  0.055 84.620    8  0.588    8  0.095    9  0.096    7 0.5183  0.536  0.046  0.146  0.045
BOSTON             86  77 820 830  0.059 85.559    9  0.539    9  0.083   11  0.031    8 0.5155  0.660  0.099 -0.036  0.002
BALTIMORE          70  92 768 899  0.075 86.249   19  0.428   18 -0.063   22 -0.076   17 0.4944  0.727  0.059 -0.211 -0.057
TAMPA BAY          61 101 689 856  0.082 86.720   28  0.105   28 -0.152   24 -0.122   26 0.4817  0.511 -0.195 -0.049  0.038

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL CENTRAL 429 397 0.519    1  0.139
AL WEST    345 312 0.525    2  0.120
AL EAST    402 413 0.493    3  0.033
NL WEST    406 412 0.496    4 -0.040
NL EAST    416 405 0.507    5 -0.044
NL CENTRAL 464 523 0.470    6 -0.160

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.102 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 31 14:18:28 2007
games through: Sun Oct 29 2006

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