Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 110  64   0 808 679  0.041 89.147    1  0.972    1  0.269    2  0.181    1 0.5340  0.352  0.022  0.341  0.049
N.Y. YANKEES       97  70   0 906 814  0.074 87.899    2  0.935    2  0.197    5  0.166    2 0.5242  0.720  0.347 -0.016  0.056
ANAHEIM            99  73   0 797 686  0.077 90.619    3  0.932    3  0.191    1  0.190    3 0.5237  0.454  0.119  0.261 -0.175
BOSTON             95  70   0 919 829  0.070 86.582    4  0.920    4  0.185    6  0.163    4 0.5232  0.778  0.403 -0.078  0.029
ST. LOUIS         105  66   0 842 667 -0.071 80.156    5  0.850    5  0.156    7  0.148    5 0.5220  0.418  0.045  0.250  0.103
CLEVELAND          93  69   0 790 642  0.019 81.604    6  0.806    6  0.145    4  0.172    6 0.5188  0.588  0.224  0.119 -0.292
OAKLAND            88  74   0 772 658  0.079 85.592    7  0.758    7  0.133    3  0.175    7 0.5161  0.395  0.052  0.297  0.094
ATLANTA            91  75   0 790 699 -0.031 80.464    8  0.521    8  0.063    9  0.093    8 0.5103  0.406 -0.020  0.206  0.209
PHILADELPHIA       88  74   0 807 726 -0.033 78.498    9  0.507    9  0.053   14  0.048    9 0.5085  0.521  0.038  0.059  0.251
MINNESOTA          83  79   0 688 662  0.045 83.462   10  0.506   10  0.053   12  0.057   11 0.5058  0.342 -0.111  0.225 -0.019
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON            96  80   1 754 666 -0.040 85.176   11  0.500   11  0.052   11  0.061   10 0.5079  0.295 -0.145  0.268 -0.054
TEXAS              79  83   0 865 858  0.091 86.519   12  0.496   12  0.042   10  0.077   12 0.5034  0.782  0.322 -0.168  0.144
TORONTO            80  82   0 775 705  0.063 84.554   13  0.492   13  0.034    8  0.117   13 0.5032  0.455  0.047  0.187  0.026
N.Y. METS          83  79   0 722 648 -0.023 79.112   14  0.478   14  0.006   13  0.055   14 0.5028  0.416 -0.049  0.160 -0.032
FLORIDA            83  79   0 717 732 -0.031 78.738   15  0.473   15 -0.000   18 -0.024   15 0.5010  0.608  0.047 -0.094 -0.181
WASHINGTON         81  81   0 639 673 -0.010 80.092   16  0.470   16 -0.008   19 -0.043   16 0.4994  0.392 -0.168  0.082 -0.188
BALTIMORE          74  88   0 729 800  0.079 85.803   17  0.464   17 -0.021   16 -0.004   19 0.4949  0.635  0.093 -0.101 -0.215
MILWAUKEE          81  81   0 726 697 -0.047 77.646   18  0.457   18 -0.034   17 -0.022   17 0.4966  0.464 -0.085  0.040  0.036
CHICAGO CUBS       79  83   0 703 714 -0.035 78.455   19  0.446   19 -0.048   20 -0.044   18 0.4951  0.449 -0.120  0.031  0.050
SEATTLE            69  93   0 699 751  0.092 86.640   20  0.419   20 -0.067   15  0.002   21 0.4889  0.529 -0.002  0.005 -0.097
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT            71  91   0 723 787  0.045 83.737   21  0.391   21 -0.078   21 -0.052   22 0.4888  0.627  0.037 -0.141 -0.124
SAN DIEGO          82  83   0 695 747 -0.106 75.415   22  0.381   22 -0.082   25 -0.149   20 0.4912  0.621 -0.065 -0.232 -0.356
TAMPA BAY          67  95   0 750 936  0.097 87.133   23  0.369   23 -0.085   22 -0.115   23 0.4860  0.770  0.117 -0.347 -0.042
CINCINNATI         73  89   1 820 889 -0.033 79.189   24  0.277   24 -0.112   23 -0.117   24 0.4857  0.733  0.078 -0.312  0.260
ARIZONA            77  85   0 696 856 -0.108 74.067   25  0.220   25 -0.122   29 -0.230   25 0.4855  0.582 -0.183 -0.276  0.149
SAN FRANCISCO      75  87   0 649 745 -0.110 73.901   26  0.151   26 -0.144   27 -0.191   26 0.4826  0.429 -0.285 -0.098 -0.033
PITTSBURGH         67  95   0 680 769 -0.046 77.955   27  0.043   27 -0.186   24 -0.138   28 0.4762  0.428 -0.232 -0.045  0.118
LOS ANGELES        71  91   0 685 755 -0.111 73.802   28  0.036   28 -0.189   26 -0.184   27 0.4775  0.548 -0.169 -0.198 -0.125
KANSAS CITY        56 106   0 701 935  0.074 85.845   29  0.004   29 -0.225   28 -0.205   30 0.4683  0.774  0.032 -0.442 -0.074
COLORADO           67  95   0 740 862 -0.110 73.917   30  0.000   30 -0.232   30 -0.234   29 0.4712  0.500 -0.264 -0.204  0.431

NL WEST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO          82  83   0 695 747 -0.106 75.415   22  0.381   22 -0.082   25 -0.149   20 0.4912  0.621 -0.065 -0.232 -0.356
ARIZONA            77  85   0 696 856 -0.108 74.067   25  0.220   25 -0.122   29 -0.230   25 0.4855  0.582 -0.183 -0.276  0.149
SAN FRANCISCO      75  87   0 649 745 -0.110 73.901   26  0.151   26 -0.144   27 -0.191   26 0.4826  0.429 -0.285 -0.098 -0.033
LOS ANGELES        71  91   0 685 755 -0.111 73.802   28  0.036   28 -0.189   26 -0.184   27 0.4775  0.548 -0.169 -0.198 -0.125
COLORADO           67  95   0 740 862 -0.110 73.917   30  0.000   30 -0.232   30 -0.234   29 0.4712  0.500 -0.264 -0.204  0.431

NL CENTRAL
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS         105  66   0 842 667 -0.071 80.156    5  0.850    5  0.156    7  0.148    5 0.5220  0.418  0.045  0.250  0.103
HOUSTON            96  80   1 754 666 -0.040 85.176   11  0.500   11  0.052   11  0.061   10 0.5079  0.295 -0.145  0.268 -0.054
MILWAUKEE          81  81   0 726 697 -0.047 77.646   18  0.457   18 -0.034   17 -0.022   17 0.4966  0.464 -0.085  0.040  0.036
CHICAGO CUBS       79  83   0 703 714 -0.035 78.455   19  0.446   19 -0.048   20 -0.044   18 0.4951  0.449 -0.120  0.031  0.050
CINCINNATI         73  89   1 820 889 -0.033 79.189   24  0.277   24 -0.112   23 -0.117   24 0.4857  0.733  0.078 -0.312  0.260
PITTSBURGH         67  95   0 680 769 -0.046 77.955   27  0.043   27 -0.186   24 -0.138   28 0.4762  0.428 -0.232 -0.045  0.118

NL EAST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA            91  75   0 790 699 -0.031 80.464    8  0.521    8  0.063    9  0.093    8 0.5103  0.406 -0.020  0.206  0.209
PHILADELPHIA       88  74   0 807 726 -0.033 78.498    9  0.507    9  0.053   14  0.048    9 0.5085  0.521  0.038  0.059  0.251
N.Y. METS          83  79   0 722 648 -0.023 79.112   14  0.478   14  0.006   13  0.055   14 0.5028  0.416 -0.049  0.160 -0.032
FLORIDA            83  79   0 717 732 -0.031 78.738   15  0.473   15 -0.000   18 -0.024   15 0.5010  0.608  0.047 -0.094 -0.181
WASHINGTON         81  81   0 639 673 -0.010 80.092   16  0.470   16 -0.008   19 -0.043   16 0.4994  0.392 -0.168  0.082 -0.188

AL WEST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANAHEIM            99  73   0 797 686  0.077 90.619    3  0.932    3  0.191    1  0.190    3 0.5237  0.454  0.119  0.261 -0.175
OAKLAND            88  74   0 772 658  0.079 85.592    7  0.758    7  0.133    3  0.175    7 0.5161  0.395  0.052  0.297  0.094
TEXAS              79  83   0 865 858  0.091 86.519   12  0.496   12  0.042   10  0.077   12 0.5034  0.782  0.322 -0.168  0.144
SEATTLE            69  93   0 699 751  0.092 86.640   20  0.419   20 -0.067   15  0.002   21 0.4889  0.529 -0.002  0.005 -0.097

AL CENTRAL
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 110  64   0 808 679  0.041 89.147    1  0.972    1  0.269    2  0.181    1 0.5340  0.352  0.022  0.341  0.049
CLEVELAND          93  69   0 790 642  0.019 81.604    6  0.806    6  0.145    4  0.172    6 0.5188  0.588  0.224  0.119 -0.292
MINNESOTA          83  79   0 688 662  0.045 83.462   10  0.506   10  0.053   12  0.057   11 0.5058  0.342 -0.111  0.225 -0.019
DETROIT            71  91   0 723 787  0.045 83.737   21  0.391   21 -0.078   21 -0.052   22 0.4888  0.627  0.037 -0.141 -0.124
KANSAS CITY        56 106   0 701 935  0.074 85.845   29  0.004   29 -0.225   28 -0.205   30 0.4683  0.774  0.032 -0.442 -0.074

AL EAST
                                                      STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. YANKEES       97  70   0 906 814  0.074 87.899    2  0.935    2  0.197    5  0.166    2 0.5242  0.720  0.347 -0.016  0.056
BOSTON             95  70   0 919 829  0.070 86.582    4  0.920    4  0.185    6  0.163    4 0.5232  0.778  0.403 -0.078  0.029
TORONTO            80  82   0 775 705  0.063 84.554   13  0.492   13  0.034    8  0.117   13 0.5032  0.455  0.047  0.187  0.026
BALTIMORE          74  88   0 729 800  0.079 85.803   17  0.464   17 -0.021   16 -0.004   19 0.4949  0.635  0.093 -0.101 -0.215
TAMPA BAY          67  95   0 750 936  0.097 87.133   23  0.369   23 -0.085   22 -0.115   23 0.4860  0.770  0.117 -0.347 -0.042

DIVISION     W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    335 323   0 0.509    1  0.140
AL EAST    413 405   0 0.505    2  0.083
AL CENTRAL 413 409   0 0.502    3  0.039
NL EAST    426 388   0 0.523    4  0.033
NL CENTRAL 501 494   2 0.504    5 -0.024
NL WEST    372 441   0 0.458    6 -0.250

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:17:01 2007
games through: Wed Oct 26 2005

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