Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS         112  65  923  726 -0.006 87.397    1  0.979    1  0.224    2  0.196    1 0.5328  0.628  0.243  0.149 -0.159
BOSTON            109  67 1039  837  0.014 88.376    2  0.975    2  0.215    1  0.227    2 0.5319  0.579  0.227  0.226  0.318
N.Y. YANKEES      107  66  963  866  0.013 86.862    3  0.964    3  0.210    6  0.112    3 0.5293  0.797  0.329 -0.106 -0.102
ATLANTA            98  69  824  704 -0.022 81.489    4  0.754    4  0.130    5  0.115    5 0.5181  0.568  0.105  0.125 -0.097
HOUSTON            98  75  868  750  0.011 86.677    5  0.712    5  0.120    3  0.127    4 0.5185  0.630  0.175  0.078 -0.086
OAKLAND            91  71  793  742  0.017 81.670    6  0.680    6  0.113    9  0.070    6 0.5164  0.474 -0.026  0.166  0.059
ANAHEIM            92  73  848  759  0.020 83.304    7  0.677    7  0.109    7  0.105    7 0.5160  0.592  0.117  0.093  0.013
LOS ANGELES        94  72  773  707 -0.023 81.030    8  0.615    8  0.094   13  0.033    9 0.5135  0.497 -0.042  0.109 -0.164
TEXAS              89  73  860  794  0.017 81.624    9  0.607    9  0.092    8  0.076    8 0.5137  0.502  0.005  0.148  0.385
CHICAGO CUBS       89  73  789  665 -0.002 80.336   10  0.572   10  0.079    4  0.124   10 0.5134  0.408 -0.030  0.279  0.116
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA          93  73  797  736 -0.033 80.370   11  0.566   11  0.078   11  0.055   12 0.5094  0.385 -0.119  0.230  0.119
SAN FRANCISCO      91  71  850  770 -0.040 77.946   12  0.563   12  0.075   10  0.060   11 0.5111  0.600  0.080  0.040  0.167
PHILADELPHIA       86  76  840  781 -0.019 79.386   13  0.517   13  0.038   12  0.040   13 0.5049  0.714  0.172 -0.093 -0.013
SAN DIEGO          87  75  768  705 -0.047 77.554   14  0.512   14  0.029   14  0.028   14 0.5044  0.632  0.079 -0.024 -0.292
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  83  79  865  831 -0.004 80.402   15  0.506   15  0.018   16  0.015   15 0.5008  0.611  0.045 -0.016  0.240
FLORIDA            83  79  719  700 -0.020 79.338   16  0.503   16  0.006   17  0.007   16 0.5005  0.562 -0.009  0.023 -0.268
CLEVELAND          80  82  858  857 -0.012 79.838   17  0.495   17 -0.019   18 -0.013   18 0.4958  0.763  0.169 -0.195 -0.037
BALTIMORE          78  84  842  830  0.013 81.472   18  0.494   18 -0.023   15  0.023   17 0.4976  0.572  0.016  0.029  0.233
CINCINNATI         75  86  747  905  0.022 81.793   19  0.481   19 -0.044   27 -0.133   19 0.4940  0.928  0.226 -0.492 -0.344
PITTSBURGH         72  89  680  744  0.011 80.993   20  0.448   20 -0.081   20 -0.056   20 0.4897  0.536 -0.096 -0.016 -0.217
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY          70  91  714  842  0.031 82.324   21  0.423   21 -0.090   25 -0.113   21 0.4872  0.580 -0.112 -0.114 -0.088
DETROIT            72  90  827  844 -0.010 80.080   22  0.405   22 -0.099   19 -0.025   23 0.4845  0.714  0.107 -0.156 -0.070
N.Y. METS          71  91  684  731 -0.007 80.315   23  0.367   23 -0.108   21 -0.065   22 0.4845  0.484 -0.153  0.022 -0.138
TORONTO            67  94  719  823  0.027 82.053   24  0.296   24 -0.123   22 -0.093   24 0.4830  0.382 -0.270  0.084  0.283
MILWAUKEE          67  94  634  757  0.019 81.616   25  0.276   25 -0.127   26 -0.119   25 0.4826  0.398 -0.282  0.044 -0.010
COLORADO           68  94  833  923 -0.020 79.544   26  0.194   26 -0.147   23 -0.093   26 0.4793  0.543 -0.127 -0.060  0.598
MONTREAL           67  95  635  769 -0.004 80.619   27  0.187   27 -0.147   28 -0.147   27 0.4779  0.533 -0.190 -0.104 -0.240
SEATTLE            63  99  698  823  0.042 83.496   28  0.149   28 -0.159   24 -0.108   28 0.4775  0.615 -0.074 -0.142 -0.256
KANSAS CITY        58 104  720  905  0.022 82.349   29  0.049   29 -0.224   29 -0.208   29 0.4661  0.694 -0.096 -0.320 -0.117
ARIZONA            51 111  615  899  0.002 81.149   30  0.000   30 -0.312   30 -0.307   30 0.4550  0.429 -0.443 -0.171  0.167

NL WEST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LOS ANGELES        94  72  773  707 -0.023 81.030    8  0.615    8  0.094   13  0.033    9 0.5135  0.497 -0.042  0.109 -0.164
SAN FRANCISCO      91  71  850  770 -0.040 77.946   12  0.563   12  0.075   10  0.060   11 0.5111  0.600  0.080  0.040  0.167
SAN DIEGO          87  75  768  705 -0.047 77.554   14  0.512   14  0.029   14  0.028   14 0.5044  0.632  0.079 -0.024 -0.292
COLORADO           68  94  833  923 -0.020 79.544   26  0.194   26 -0.147   23 -0.093   26 0.4793  0.543 -0.127 -0.060  0.598
ARIZONA            51 111  615  899  0.002 81.149   30  0.000   30 -0.312   30 -0.307   30 0.4550  0.429 -0.443 -0.171  0.167

NL CENTRAL
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS         112  65  923  726 -0.006 87.397    1  0.979    1  0.224    2  0.196    1 0.5328  0.628  0.243  0.149 -0.159
HOUSTON            98  75  868  750  0.011 86.677    5  0.712    5  0.120    3  0.127    4 0.5185  0.630  0.175  0.078 -0.086
CHICAGO CUBS       89  73  789  665 -0.002 80.336   10  0.572   10  0.079    4  0.124   10 0.5134  0.408 -0.030  0.279  0.116
CINCINNATI         75  86  747  905  0.022 81.793   19  0.481   19 -0.044   27 -0.133   19 0.4940  0.928  0.226 -0.492 -0.344
PITTSBURGH         72  89  680  744  0.011 80.993   20  0.448   20 -0.081   20 -0.056   20 0.4897  0.536 -0.096 -0.016 -0.217
MILWAUKEE          67  94  634  757  0.019 81.616   25  0.276   25 -0.127   26 -0.119   25 0.4826  0.398 -0.282  0.044 -0.010

NL EAST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA            98  69  824  704 -0.022 81.489    4  0.754    4  0.130    5  0.115    5 0.5181  0.568  0.105  0.125 -0.097
PHILADELPHIA       86  76  840  781 -0.019 79.386   13  0.517   13  0.038   12  0.040   13 0.5049  0.714  0.172 -0.093 -0.013
FLORIDA            83  79  719  700 -0.020 79.338   16  0.503   16  0.006   17  0.007   16 0.5005  0.562 -0.009  0.023 -0.268
N.Y. METS          71  91  684  731 -0.007 80.315   23  0.367   23 -0.108   21 -0.065   22 0.4845  0.484 -0.153  0.022 -0.138
MONTREAL           67  95  635  769 -0.004 80.619   27  0.187   27 -0.147   28 -0.147   27 0.4779  0.533 -0.190 -0.104 -0.240

AL WEST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND            91  71  793  742  0.017 81.670    6  0.680    6  0.113    9  0.070    6 0.5164  0.474 -0.026  0.166  0.059
ANAHEIM            92  73  848  759  0.020 83.304    7  0.677    7  0.109    7  0.105    7 0.5160  0.592  0.117  0.093  0.013
TEXAS              89  73  860  794  0.017 81.624    9  0.607    9  0.092    8  0.076    8 0.5137  0.502  0.005  0.148  0.385
SEATTLE            63  99  698  823  0.042 83.496   28  0.149   28 -0.159   24 -0.108   28 0.4775  0.615 -0.074 -0.142 -0.256

AL CENTRAL
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA          93  73  797  736 -0.033 80.370   11  0.566   11  0.078   11  0.055   12 0.5094  0.385 -0.119  0.230  0.119
CHICAGO WHITE SOX  83  79  865  831 -0.004 80.402   15  0.506   15  0.018   16  0.015   15 0.5008  0.611  0.045 -0.016  0.240
CLEVELAND          80  82  858  857 -0.012 79.838   17  0.495   17 -0.019   18 -0.013   18 0.4958  0.763  0.169 -0.195 -0.037
DETROIT            72  90  827  844 -0.010 80.080   22  0.405   22 -0.099   19 -0.025   23 0.4845  0.714  0.107 -0.156 -0.070
KANSAS CITY        58 104  720  905  0.022 82.349   29  0.049   29 -0.224   29 -0.208   29 0.4661  0.694 -0.096 -0.320 -0.117

AL EAST
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM                W   L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON            109  67 1039  837  0.014 88.376    2  0.975    2  0.215    1  0.227    2 0.5319  0.579  0.227  0.226  0.318
N.Y. YANKEES      107  66  963  866  0.013 86.862    3  0.964    3  0.210    6  0.112    3 0.5293  0.797  0.329 -0.106 -0.102
BALTIMORE          78  84  842  830  0.013 81.472   18  0.494   18 -0.023   15  0.023   17 0.4976  0.572  0.016  0.029  0.233
TAMPA BAY          70  91  714  842  0.031 82.324   21  0.423   21 -0.090   25 -0.113   21 0.4872  0.580 -0.112 -0.114 -0.088
TORONTO            67  94  719  823  0.027 82.053   24  0.296   24 -0.123   22 -0.093   24 0.4830  0.382 -0.270  0.084  0.283

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    335 316 0.515    1  0.049
AL EAST    431 402 0.517    2  0.040
NL CENTRAL 513 482 0.516    3  0.030
NL EAST    405 410 0.497    4 -0.013
AL CENTRAL 386 428 0.474    5 -0.046
NL WEST    391 423 0.480    6 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.057 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:15:41 2007
games through: Wed Oct 27 2004

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