Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    105  62 826 681  0.043 86.154    1  1.035    1  0.284    4  0.220    1 0.5332  0.341  0.049  0.391  0.220
ANGELS       110  68 952 725  0.037 91.312    2  1.024    2  0.262    1  0.264    2 0.5313  0.544  0.272  0.257 -0.015
YANKEES      104  61 922 728  0.007 82.673    3  1.022    3  0.258    2  0.235    4 0.5293  0.677  0.370  0.100 -0.024
BRAVES       103  62 731 586 -0.019 81.282    4  1.005    4  0.224    6  0.173    3 0.5301  0.316 -0.019  0.365 -0.099
GIANTS       105  73 871 696  0.010 89.630    5  0.969    5  0.183    5  0.194    5 0.5261  0.637  0.290  0.098 -0.355
MARINERS      93  69 814 699  0.042 83.574    6  0.938    6  0.172    7  0.172    7 0.5200  0.588  0.222  0.123 -0.170
DIAMONDBACKS  98  67 825 694 -0.014 81.599    7  0.935    7  0.171    8  0.139    6 0.5239  0.458  0.068  0.210  0.189
CARDINALS    101  69 823 677 -0.047 81.882    8  0.866    8  0.146    9  0.127    9 0.5184  0.587  0.175  0.079 -0.216
RED SOX       93  69 859 665  0.003 80.978    9  0.854    9  0.143    3  0.226   10 0.5168  0.569  0.257  0.195 -0.015
DODGERS       92  70 713 643  0.002 81.217   10  0.791   10  0.130   10  0.073    8 0.5187  0.537  0.074  0.072 -0.391
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS         98  73 807 767 -0.024 84.003   11  0.763   11  0.123   11  0.031   11 0.5129  0.500 -0.002  0.064  0.006
EXPOS         83  79 735 718 -0.022 79.850   12  0.526   12  0.007   15 -0.001   12 0.5030  0.576  0.037 -0.039 -0.097
ASTROS        84  78 749 695 -0.043 78.417   13  0.524   13  0.002   12  0.029   13 0.5005  0.439 -0.059  0.116  0.113
BLUE JAYS     78  84 813 828  0.037 83.617   14  0.520   14 -0.008   14  0.021   15 0.4969  0.667  0.146 -0.105  0.060
PHILLIES      80  81 710 724 -0.018 79.617   15  0.513   15 -0.020   18 -0.030   14 0.4999  0.736  0.165 -0.225 -0.449
WHITE SOX     81  81 856 798 -0.038 78.734   16  0.507   16 -0.030   13  0.024   17 0.4947  0.630  0.113 -0.065  0.204
MARLINS       79  83 699 763 -0.021 80.013   17  0.499   17 -0.041   19 -0.091   16 0.4968  0.627 -0.005 -0.177 -0.191
REDS          78  84 709 774 -0.026 79.736   18  0.482   18 -0.057   20 -0.099   19 0.4928  0.432 -0.192 -0.006  0.244
METS          75  86 690 703 -0.001 80.699   19  0.471   19 -0.067   17 -0.021   18 0.4946  0.609  0.048 -0.089 -0.316
RANGERS       72  90 843 882  0.053 84.686   20  0.470   20 -0.067   16 -0.004   21 0.4904  0.566  0.024 -0.032  0.492
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKIES       73  89 778 898  0.020 82.769   21  0.443   21 -0.079   22 -0.109   20 0.4925  0.509 -0.134 -0.084  0.564
INDIANS       74  88 739 837 -0.017 80.427   22  0.398   22 -0.096   23 -0.118   22 0.4860  0.516 -0.136 -0.100  0.174
ORIOLES       67  95 667 773  0.049 84.716   23  0.275   23 -0.128   24 -0.119   25 0.4813  0.403 -0.237 -0.000 -0.010
PIRATES       72  89 641 730 -0.036 78.689   24  0.274   24 -0.128   25 -0.138   23 0.4837  0.348 -0.303  0.027  0.149
PADRES        66  96 662 815  0.022 82.879   25  0.150   25 -0.163   26 -0.160   24 0.4821  0.676 -0.026 -0.294 -0.323
CUBS          67  95 706 759 -0.033 79.280   26  0.099   26 -0.190   21 -0.101   26 0.4764  0.600 -0.041 -0.162 -0.116
ROYALS        62 100 737 891 -0.013 80.862   27  0.058   27 -0.235   27 -0.188   27 0.4692  0.363 -0.341 -0.036  0.588
DEVIL RAYS    55 106 673 918  0.054 84.782   28  0.040   28 -0.267   28 -0.247   28 0.4647  0.555 -0.229 -0.265  0.098
TIGERS        55 106 575 864  0.008 81.967   29  0.010   29 -0.301   30 -0.322   30 0.4607  0.477 -0.376 -0.269 -0.154
BREWERS       56 106 627 821 -0.013 80.828   30  0.000   30 -0.309   29 -0.259   29 0.4624  0.586 -0.212 -0.305 -0.160

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GIANTS       105  73 871 696  0.010 89.630    5  0.969    5  0.183    5  0.194    5 0.5261  0.637  0.290  0.098 -0.355
DIAMONDBACKS  98  67 825 694 -0.014 81.599    7  0.935    7  0.171    8  0.139    6 0.5239  0.458  0.068  0.210  0.189
DODGERS       92  70 713 643  0.002 81.217   10  0.791   10  0.130   10  0.073    8 0.5187  0.537  0.074  0.072 -0.391
ROCKIES       73  89 778 898  0.020 82.769   21  0.443   21 -0.079   22 -0.109   20 0.4925  0.509 -0.134 -0.084  0.564
PADRES        66  96 662 815  0.022 82.879   25  0.150   25 -0.163   26 -0.160   24 0.4821  0.676 -0.026 -0.294 -0.323

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS    101  69 823 677 -0.047 81.882    8  0.866    8  0.146    9  0.127    9 0.5184  0.587  0.175  0.079 -0.216
ASTROS        84  78 749 695 -0.043 78.417   13  0.524   13  0.002   12  0.029   13 0.5005  0.439 -0.059  0.116  0.113
REDS          78  84 709 774 -0.026 79.736   18  0.482   18 -0.057   20 -0.099   19 0.4928  0.432 -0.192 -0.006  0.244
PIRATES       72  89 641 730 -0.036 78.689   24  0.274   24 -0.128   25 -0.138   23 0.4837  0.348 -0.303  0.027  0.149
CUBS          67  95 706 759 -0.033 79.280   26  0.099   26 -0.190   21 -0.101   26 0.4764  0.600 -0.041 -0.162 -0.116
BREWERS       56 106 627 821 -0.013 80.828   30  0.000   30 -0.309   29 -0.259   29 0.4624  0.586 -0.212 -0.305 -0.160

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       103  62 731 586 -0.019 81.282    4  1.005    4  0.224    6  0.173    3 0.5301  0.316 -0.019  0.365 -0.099
EXPOS         83  79 735 718 -0.022 79.850   12  0.526   12  0.007   15 -0.001   12 0.5030  0.576  0.037 -0.039 -0.097
PHILLIES      80  81 710 724 -0.018 79.617   15  0.513   15 -0.020   18 -0.030   14 0.4999  0.736  0.165 -0.225 -0.449
MARLINS       79  83 699 763 -0.021 80.013   17  0.499   17 -0.041   19 -0.091   16 0.4968  0.627 -0.005 -0.177 -0.191
METS          75  86 690 703 -0.001 80.699   19  0.471   19 -0.067   17 -0.021   18 0.4946  0.609  0.048 -0.089 -0.316

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    105  62 826 681  0.043 86.154    1  1.035    1  0.284    4  0.220    1 0.5332  0.341  0.049  0.391  0.220
ANGELS       110  68 952 725  0.037 91.312    2  1.024    2  0.262    1  0.264    2 0.5313  0.544  0.272  0.257 -0.015
MARINERS      93  69 814 699  0.042 83.574    6  0.938    6  0.172    7  0.172    7 0.5200  0.588  0.222  0.123 -0.170
RANGERS       72  90 843 882  0.053 84.686   20  0.470   20 -0.067   16 -0.004   21 0.4904  0.566  0.024 -0.032  0.492

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS         98  73 807 767 -0.024 84.003   11  0.763   11  0.123   11  0.031   11 0.5129  0.500 -0.002  0.064  0.006
WHITE SOX     81  81 856 798 -0.038 78.734   16  0.507   16 -0.030   13  0.024   17 0.4947  0.630  0.113 -0.065  0.204
INDIANS       74  88 739 837 -0.017 80.427   22  0.398   22 -0.096   23 -0.118   22 0.4860  0.516 -0.136 -0.100  0.174
ROYALS        62 100 737 891 -0.013 80.862   27  0.058   27 -0.235   27 -0.188   27 0.4692  0.363 -0.341 -0.036  0.588
TIGERS        55 106 575 864  0.008 81.967   29  0.010   29 -0.301   30 -0.322   30 0.4607  0.477 -0.376 -0.269 -0.154

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      104  61 922 728  0.007 82.673    3  1.022    3  0.258    2  0.235    4 0.5293  0.677  0.370  0.100 -0.024
RED SOX       93  69 859 665  0.003 80.978    9  0.854    9  0.143    3  0.226   10 0.5168  0.569  0.257  0.195 -0.015
BLUE JAYS     78  84 813 828  0.037 83.617   14  0.520   14 -0.008   14  0.021   15 0.4969  0.667  0.146 -0.105  0.060
ORIOLES       67  95 667 773  0.049 84.716   23  0.275   23 -0.128   24 -0.119   25 0.4813  0.403 -0.237 -0.000 -0.010
DEVIL RAYS    55 106 673 918  0.054 84.782   28  0.040   28 -0.267   28 -0.247   28 0.4647  0.555 -0.229 -0.265  0.098

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    380 289 0.568    1  0.196
NL WEST    434 395 0.524    2  0.033
AL EAST    397 415 0.489    3  0.029
NL EAST    420 391 0.518    4  0.008
NL CENTRAL 458 521 0.468    5 -0.088
AL CENTRAL 370 448 0.452    6 -0.137

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.087 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 31 14:13:04 2007
games through: Sun Oct 27 2002

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.