Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       19 11 139 114  0.158 16.699    1  0.208    1  0.202    5  0.166    1 0.5467   16  0.479   10  0.196   10  0.136   28 -0.323 P
DODGERS      20 10 155 125  0.006 14.739    2  0.185    2  0.178    6  0.145    4 0.5385   19  0.403   13  0.108    7  0.182   10  0.183 P
METS         21  9 145  90 -0.078 13.792    3  0.183    3  0.176    3  0.172    3 0.5414   24  0.242   17  0.001    3  0.343   25 -0.293 P
CUBS         18 12 181 133  0.140 16.419    4  0.165    4  0.160    1  0.231    2 0.5424    2  0.789    1  0.562   19 -0.099    8  0.269 P
PADRES       18 11 113  87  0.042 14.661    5  0.131    5  0.139    8  0.136    5 0.5297   28  0.030   23 -0.194    1  0.465   24 -0.281 P
TIGERS       18 12 138 101  0.053 15.294    6  0.116    6  0.122    4  0.171    8 0.5226   14  0.540    7  0.256   12  0.085   22 -0.239 P
YANKEES      18 12 173 120 -0.002 14.687    7  0.097    7  0.101    2  0.180    7 0.5238   10  0.597    4  0.320   13  0.040    5  0.335 P
MARINERS     17 12 143 126  0.005 14.421    8  0.083    8  0.088   12  0.057    6 0.5259    7  0.688    6  0.284   22 -0.170   27 -0.322 P
PHILLIES     16 13 131 130  0.033 14.801    9  0.063    9  0.070   14  0.015   11 0.5171   23  0.255   22 -0.145    8  0.175    4  0.422 P
ASTROS       16 13 113  97  0.032 14.735   10  0.060   10  0.067   10  0.074   10 0.5176   21  0.272   21 -0.072    6  0.220   13  0.019 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      16 14 102 105  0.075 15.811   11  0.059   11  0.066   13  0.032    9 0.5195   27  0.040   25 -0.290    2  0.355   23 -0.259 P
REDS         16 13 153 110 -0.006 14.173   12  0.047   12  0.048    9  0.127   12 0.5122   12  0.570    8  0.241   15  0.013   21 -0.166 P
DIAMONDBACKS 15 14 153 146  0.071 15.171   13  0.044   13  0.045   11  0.067   13 0.5084   13  0.557   11  0.168   17 -0.034   14  0.013 P
BREWERS      15 15 153 131  0.083 15.735   14  0.034   14  0.030    7  0.139   14 0.5024    4  0.751    2  0.430   20 -0.152   29 -0.364 P
GUARDIANS    16 13 110 137 -0.112 13.279   15  0.015   15  0.009   24 -0.140   15 0.5004    6  0.697   14  0.097   29 -0.377   26 -0.320 P
ATHLETICS    15 15 125 159  0.015 15.248   16  0.010   16  0.005   20 -0.080   18 0.4961    8  0.662   12  0.122   25 -0.282    6  0.284 P
BRAVES       14 15 126 124  0.028 14.756   17 -0.001   17 -0.007   15  0.010   16 0.4979   15  0.522   15  0.080   18 -0.059   18 -0.114 P
RED SOX      17 14 158 141 -0.136 13.735   18 -0.001   18 -0.008   19 -0.016   17 0.4966    5  0.701    9  0.224   24 -0.256    7  0.271 P
ROYALS       15 15  94 108 -0.057 14.454   19 -0.016   19 -0.022   21 -0.090   19 0.4915   29 -0.018   27 -0.453    5  0.273   12  0.019 P
RAYS         14 15 119 107 -0.086 13.440   20 -0.046   20 -0.053   17 -0.010   22 0.4844   17  0.442   19 -0.013   16 -0.007   17 -0.103 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    13 16  97 132 -0.026 14.363   21 -0.055   21 -0.062   22 -0.129   20 0.4910   30 -0.100   30 -0.546    4  0.289    3  0.460 P
ANGELS       12 16 103 138  0.000 14.130   22 -0.066   22 -0.073   25 -0.148   23 0.4818    9  0.649   16  0.041   28 -0.338   19 -0.153 P
MARLINS      12 17 128 174  0.032 15.051   23 -0.069   23 -0.075   23 -0.140   21 0.4873    1  0.928    3  0.339   30 -0.618   20 -0.165 P
CARDINALS    12 17 131 135  0.026 14.759   24 -0.075   24 -0.081   16 -0.006   24 0.4801    3  0.780    5  0.315   27 -0.326   30 -0.402 P
TWINS        13 17 118 111 -0.051 14.323   25 -0.088   25 -0.092   18 -0.011   26 0.4741   20  0.398   20 -0.052   14  0.031   16 -0.024 P
NATIONALS    13 17 129 157 -0.115 13.685   26 -0.116   26 -0.118   26 -0.149   25 0.4777   11  0.595   18 -0.012   26 -0.287    9  0.206 P
ORIOLES      11 18 115 165 -0.036 14.268   27 -0.138   27 -0.136   29 -0.193   27 0.4738   18  0.438   24 -0.200   23 -0.187    1  0.467 P
PIRATES      11 19 102 136 -0.036 14.725   28 -0.159   28 -0.156   27 -0.160   28 0.4676   26  0.073   28 -0.459    9  0.139   11  0.118 P
WHITE SOX     7 22  97 127 -0.055 13.998   29 -0.293   29 -0.292   28 -0.179   29 0.4330   25  0.113   26 -0.448   11  0.091   15 -0.009 P
ROCKIES       4 25  94 172  0.015 15.042   30 -0.376   30 -0.373   30 -0.320   30 0.4180   22  0.262   29 -0.474   21 -0.166    2  0.467 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       19 11 139 114  0.158 16.699    1  0.208    1  0.202    5  0.166    1 0.5467   16  0.479   10  0.196   10  0.136   28 -0.323 P
DODGERS      20 10 155 125  0.006 14.739    2  0.185    2  0.178    6  0.145    4 0.5385   19  0.403   13  0.108    7  0.182   10  0.183 P
PADRES       18 11 113  87  0.042 14.661    5  0.131    5  0.139    8  0.136    5 0.5297   28  0.030   23 -0.194    1  0.465   24 -0.281 P
DIAMONDBACKS 15 14 153 146  0.071 15.171   13  0.044   13  0.045   11  0.067   13 0.5084   13  0.557   11  0.168   17 -0.034   14  0.013 P
ROCKIES       4 25  94 172  0.015 15.042   30 -0.376   30 -0.373   30 -0.320   30 0.4180   22  0.262   29 -0.474   21 -0.166    2  0.467 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         18 12 181 133  0.140 16.419    4  0.165    4  0.160    1  0.231    2 0.5424    2  0.789    1  0.562   19 -0.099    8  0.269 P
REDS         16 13 153 110 -0.006 14.173   12  0.047   12  0.048    9  0.127   12 0.5122   12  0.570    8  0.241   15  0.013   21 -0.166 P
BREWERS      15 15 153 131  0.083 15.735   14  0.034   14  0.030    7  0.139   14 0.5024    4  0.751    2  0.430   20 -0.152   29 -0.364 P
CARDINALS    12 17 131 135  0.026 14.759   24 -0.075   24 -0.081   16 -0.006   24 0.4801    3  0.780    5  0.315   27 -0.326   30 -0.402 P
PIRATES      11 19 102 136 -0.036 14.725   28 -0.159   28 -0.156   27 -0.160   28 0.4676   26  0.073   28 -0.459    9  0.139   11  0.118 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         21  9 145  90 -0.078 13.792    3  0.183    3  0.176    3  0.172    3 0.5414   24  0.242   17  0.001    3  0.343   25 -0.293 P
PHILLIES     16 13 131 130  0.033 14.801    9  0.063    9  0.070   14  0.015   11 0.5171   23  0.255   22 -0.145    8  0.175    4  0.422 P
BRAVES       14 15 126 124  0.028 14.756   17 -0.001   17 -0.007   15  0.010   16 0.4979   15  0.522   15  0.080   18 -0.059   18 -0.114 P
MARLINS      12 17 128 174  0.032 15.051   23 -0.069   23 -0.075   23 -0.140   21 0.4873    1  0.928    3  0.339   30 -0.618   20 -0.165 P
NATIONALS    13 17 129 157 -0.115 13.685   26 -0.116   26 -0.118   26 -0.149   25 0.4777   11  0.595   18 -0.012   26 -0.287    9  0.206 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     17 12 143 126  0.005 14.421    8  0.083    8  0.088   12  0.057    6 0.5259    7  0.688    6  0.284   22 -0.170   27 -0.322 P
ASTROS       16 13 113  97  0.032 14.735   10  0.060   10  0.067   10  0.074   10 0.5176   21  0.272   21 -0.072    6  0.220   13  0.019 P
RANGERS      16 14 102 105  0.075 15.811   11  0.059   11  0.066   13  0.032    9 0.5195   27  0.040   25 -0.290    2  0.355   23 -0.259 P
ATHLETICS    15 15 125 159  0.015 15.248   16  0.010   16  0.005   20 -0.080   18 0.4961    8  0.662   12  0.122   25 -0.282    6  0.284 P
ANGELS       12 16 103 138  0.000 14.130   22 -0.066   22 -0.073   25 -0.148   23 0.4818    9  0.649   16  0.041   28 -0.338   19 -0.153 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       18 12 138 101  0.053 15.294    6  0.116    6  0.122    4  0.171    8 0.5226   14  0.540    7  0.256   12  0.085   22 -0.239 P
GUARDIANS    16 13 110 137 -0.112 13.279   15  0.015   15  0.009   24 -0.140   15 0.5004    6  0.697   14  0.097   29 -0.377   26 -0.320 P
ROYALS       15 15  94 108 -0.057 14.454   19 -0.016   19 -0.022   21 -0.090   19 0.4915   29 -0.018   27 -0.453    5  0.273   12  0.019 P
TWINS        13 17 118 111 -0.051 14.323   25 -0.088   25 -0.092   18 -0.011   26 0.4741   20  0.398   20 -0.052   14  0.031   16 -0.024 P
WHITE SOX     7 22  97 127 -0.055 13.998   29 -0.293   29 -0.292   28 -0.179   29 0.4330   25  0.113   26 -0.448   11  0.091   15 -0.009 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      18 12 173 120 -0.002 14.687    7  0.097    7  0.101    2  0.180    7 0.5238   10  0.597    4  0.320   13  0.040    5  0.335 P
RED SOX      17 14 158 141 -0.136 13.735   18 -0.001   18 -0.008   19 -0.016   17 0.4966    5  0.701    9  0.224   24 -0.256    7  0.271 P
RAYS         14 15 119 107 -0.086 13.440   20 -0.046   20 -0.053   17 -0.010   22 0.4844   17  0.442   19 -0.013   16 -0.007   17 -0.103 P
BLUE JAYS    13 16  97 132 -0.026 14.363   21 -0.055   21 -0.062   22 -0.129   20 0.4910   30 -0.100   30 -0.546    4  0.289    3  0.460 P
ORIOLES      11 18 115 165 -0.036 14.268   27 -0.138   27 -0.136   29 -0.193   27 0.4738   18  0.438   24 -0.200   23 -0.187    1  0.467 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 72 76 0.486    1  0.125
NL WEST    76 71 0.517    2  0.081
AL WEST    76 70 0.521    3 -0.023
NL EAST    76 71 0.517    4 -0.033
AL EAST    73 75 0.493    5 -0.063
AL CENTRAL 69 79 0.466    6 -0.092

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.156 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Apr 30 05:30:07 2025
games through: Tue Apr 29 2025

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