Dolphin Ratings - NCAA Football

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. The RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  13  0  0 694   0  1.486    1  2.227    1  3.072    1  3.191    1 0.6332    3 0.6353    1   1250 -0.055  2.714  3.668
Princeton             11  1  0 609  16  1.688    2  2.025    2  2.457    2  2.962    2 0.6307    2 0.6452    2   1200  0.069  2.570  3.353
Harvard               12  1  0 626  32  1.242    3  1.845    3  1.997    3  2.622    3 0.6092    1 0.6542    3   1150  0.498  2.578  2.666
Pennsylvania           9  7  0 278 296  0.659    4  1.370    5  0.407    4  0.557    5 0.5269    4 0.5538    7    981  1.161  1.219 -0.105
Lehigh                10  2  0 248 119 -0.673    5  1.332    4  0.472    6 -0.157    4 0.5594    5 0.5382    4   1091  0.329 -0.348  0.034
Lafayette              6  3  0 126  78 -0.537    6  1.067    6 -0.033    9 -0.425    6 0.5264    8 0.5030    6   1009  0.339 -0.607 -0.243
Williams               4  4  0 171 104  0.046    7  0.928    7 -0.321    5  0.420    9 0.4848   10 0.4744    8    884  0.966  0.852 -0.012
Wesleyan               2  7  0  86 377  0.330    8  0.895    8 -0.402   10 -0.456   11 0.4762    7 0.5039   13    646  0.811 -0.193 -0.719
Cornell                4  2  0  96  20 -0.686    9  0.874    9 -0.462    8 -0.411    7 0.4879   12 0.4301    5   1019  0.098 -0.781 -0.040
M.I.T.                 2  5  0  66 192 -0.098   10  0.810   10 -0.621   11 -0.622   12 0.4554    9 0.4928   12    701  0.515 -0.650 -0.594
TEAM                   W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Trinity (Connecticut)  5  1  1 124  10 -1.640   11  0.659   11 -0.997   12 -0.994    8 0.4865   13 0.4278   10    808 -0.615 -1.781 -0.207
Dartmouth              3  4  0 120 136 -0.495   12  0.582   12 -1.135    7 -0.256   10 0.4811    6 0.5274    9    833  1.188  0.438 -0.950
Worcester Tech         1  4  0  14 170 -0.522   13  0.564   13 -1.173   13 -1.404   13 0.4370   11 0.4671   17    450  0.592 -1.361 -1.447
Bucknell               2  3  0  28 160 -1.373   14  0.552   14 -1.208   18 -3.027   16 0.3997   18 0.3290   11    773  0.775 -2.802 -3.252
Stevens                2  7  1  66 291 -0.683   15  0.455   15 -1.420   14 -1.443   15 0.4088   15 0.3970   14    602  0.854 -1.135 -1.751
Rutgers                1  6  1  36 327 -0.654   16  0.372   16 -1.512   15 -1.811   14 0.4129   14 0.3986   16    500  0.599 -1.761 -1.860
Amherst                2  8  1 103 426 -0.885   17  0.345   17 -1.567   17 -2.308   17 0.3894   16 0.3825   15    553  0.896 -1.954 -2.662
Swarthmore             0  5  0  14 130 -0.796   18  0.000   18 -2.600   16 -2.306   18 0.3586   17 0.3648   18    400  0.712 -2.145 -2.466
UNRANKED               3 22  0  95 716 -1.272      -1.000      -1.000      -2.058      0.3753      0.3575           0  0.722 -1.887 -2.229


Independent: strength=-0.569 (#1)
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                   W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Yale                  13  0  0 694   0  1.486    1  2.227    1  3.072    1  3.191    1 0.6332    3 0.6353    1   1250 -0.055  2.714  3.668
Princeton             11  1  0 609  16  1.688    2  2.025    2  2.457    2  2.962    2 0.6307    2 0.6452    2   1200  0.069  2.570  3.353
Harvard               12  1  0 626  32  1.242    3  1.845    3  1.997    3  2.622    3 0.6092    1 0.6542    3   1150  0.498  2.578  2.666
Pennsylvania           9  7  0 278 296  0.659    4  1.370    5  0.407    4  0.557    5 0.5269    4 0.5538    7    981  1.161  1.219 -0.105
Lehigh                10  2  0 248 119 -0.673    5  1.332    4  0.472    6 -0.157    4 0.5594    5 0.5382    4   1091  0.329 -0.348  0.034
Lafayette              6  3  0 126  78 -0.537    6  1.067    6 -0.033    9 -0.425    6 0.5264    8 0.5030    6   1009  0.339 -0.607 -0.243
Williams               4  4  0 171 104  0.046    7  0.928    7 -0.321    5  0.420    9 0.4848   10 0.4744    8    884  0.966  0.852 -0.012
Wesleyan               2  7  0  86 377  0.330    8  0.895    8 -0.402   10 -0.456   11 0.4762    7 0.5039   13    646  0.811 -0.193 -0.719
Cornell                4  2  0  96  20 -0.686    9  0.874    9 -0.462    8 -0.411    7 0.4879   12 0.4301    5   1019  0.098 -0.781 -0.040
M.I.T.                 2  5  0  66 192 -0.098   10  0.810   10 -0.621   11 -0.622   12 0.4554    9 0.4928   12    701  0.515 -0.650 -0.594
Trinity (Connecticut)  5  1  1 124  10 -1.640   11  0.659   11 -0.997   12 -0.994    8 0.4865   13 0.4278   10    808 -0.615 -1.781 -0.207
Dartmouth              3  4  0 120 136 -0.495   12  0.582   12 -1.135    7 -0.256   10 0.4811    6 0.5274    9    833  1.188  0.438 -0.950
Worcester Tech         1  4  0  14 170 -0.522   13  0.564   13 -1.173   13 -1.404   13 0.4370   11 0.4671   17    450  0.592 -1.361 -1.447
Bucknell               2  3  0  28 160 -1.373   14  0.552   14 -1.208   18 -3.027   16 0.3997   18 0.3290   11    773  0.775 -2.802 -3.252
Stevens                2  7  1  66 291 -0.683   15  0.455   15 -1.420   14 -1.443   15 0.4088   15 0.3970   14    602  0.854 -1.135 -1.751
Rutgers                1  6  1  36 327 -0.654   16  0.372   16 -1.512   15 -1.811   14 0.4129   14 0.3986   16    500  0.599 -1.761 -1.860
Amherst                2  8  1 103 426 -0.885   17  0.345   17 -1.567   17 -2.308   17 0.3894   16 0.3825   15    553  0.896 -1.954 -2.662
Swarthmore             0  5  0  14 130 -0.796   18  0.000   18 -2.600   16 -2.306   18 0.3586   17 0.3648   18    400  0.712 -2.145 -2.466

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE   W  L  T   PCT  RNK RATING
Independent 89 70  4 0.558    1 -0.569

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.308 points in main ratings
     0.018 points in improved RPI
Average of 5.65 points per score

posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:06 2007

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