Date: Tue Jul 18 17:37:41 2006
Sender: AJ Perko
I don't mean this as a whine or a gripe, and maybe it's dead
accurate for a soccer SIM.
But losing games when I have considerably more shots on goal (especially
tough ones) and then losing because my opponent put s one or wo shots on goal
and one of my AA goalies can't save it is wearing me out.
After two somewhat lucky years, this is too much
Easy Normal Hard Penalty
Hull 3 9 8 2 1 nice one to start
Kabul 2 1 0 2 0
Denver 1 4 4 4 3 nice goalie
Kabul 1 2 1
Buckland 1 3 3 4 3 another one
Kabul 1 1 1 2 1
Scotland 2 11 11 1 0 1 0 whatever
Kabul 2 1 0 4 3
Nashville 3 5 4 2 1 getting old
Kabul 2 1 0 3 1
Montreal 2 1 1 8 8 4 3 does it ever end
Kabul 1 2 2 1 3
There you have 0 wins, 3 losses 3 ties
yet out shot opponents 32-8 in normal
and 17-12 in tough
49-20 overall on goal.
Not trying to take anything away from the coaches who beat me. But this is
far too random for me, and I'm not sure how
most coaches deal with it.
Date: Tue Jul 18 17:52:03 2006
Sender: Red Burley
I deal with it about the same as you do, AJ :-)
For what its worth, I canned my underperforming AA keeper today. The season is
a wreck, and Im going with my BA youngster. We shall see how it goes.
Date: Tue Jul 18 21:07:57 2006
Sender: Karim Cheaib
All I can say is LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have been thru that my self, and still do sometimes, learned not too look at
the goalie stats anymore :)
Date: Tue Jul 18 22:00:31 2006
Sender: Andy Dolphin
Granted that MLS isn't a world-class league (nor even the league that DEL
soccer is modeled after), but here are the real standard deviations of team
quality by sport:
NFL: 0.37
NBA: 0.34
NHL: 0.20
MLB: 0.15
MLS: 0.10
In other words, of the five pro sports corresponding to DEL's leagues, MLS is
the most random sport around, in terms of the odds of a "good" team beating an
average team.
The only saving grace is that it's a long season, and that the "real"
championship is determined by the season champion instead of the cup winner.
Date: Wed Jul 19 07:28:12 2006
Sender: AJ Perko
Andy
I know what that means, just by applying common sense- but what does that
actually that standard deviation represent?
Date: Wed Jul 19 07:57:57 2006
Sender: Andy Dolphin
The standard deviation is basically the rating difference between a good team
and an average team. And rating difference tells you the odds of winning.
(Technically speaking, I'm defining "good" as a team at the 84th percentile of
the league, while average is of course 50th percentile...) Let's also define
"great" as the 98th percentile, which is roughly the best team in a major
sport.
So, in the NFL, the good team will beat the average team 64% of the time; the
great team will win 77% of the time. This means that something like 1 in 6
teams will be 10-6 or better (actually, it'll be more since most 10-6 teams are
legitimately 9-7 or 8-8 teams that got a little lucky). In the NBA, the good
team wins 63% of the time, and the great team wins 75%. No real shockers here;
we all know that in football and basketball, the better team usually wins.
In hockey, the good team beats the average team 58% of the time, and the great
team winning 66% of the time. In baseball, the good team wins 56% and the
great team wins 62%. And again, this isn't a surprise -- a 100-win season (62%
wins) is outstanding.
For soccer, basically anyone can beat anyone else in any game. Granted, that's
true of all sports, but when a good team will only beat an average team 54% of
the time (as is the case in MLS), you've got to expect tons of randomness in
game-by-game results.
Date: Wed Jul 19 09:24:07 2006
Sender: Karim Cheaib
hmm..
thanks
Date: Wed Jul 19 11:25:49 2006
Sender: AJ Perko
thats what I was looking for.
I guess when a team is so good to go undefeated, it's treated as an anomolie..
with luck I suppose?
Date: Thu Jul 20 19:31:40 2006
Sender: AJ Perko
LOL.... add this one. The SIM hates me this season.
2-2 tie
BELGRADE
Easy Normal Tough V.Hard Imposs
Num Name Num Sv Num Sv Num Sv Num Sv Num Sv
1158 K.Noordenbos 0 0 12 11 3 2 0 0 0 0
KABUL
Easy Normal Tough V.Hard Imposs
Num Name Num Sv Num Sv Num Sv Num Sv Num Sv
398 B.Holder 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Date: Fri Jul 21 12:38:39 2006
Sender: Jimy Wong
Jeebus AJ, I'm guessing your goalie is nicknamed "The Sieve"
Date: Fri Jul 21 14:59:48 2006
Sender: AJ Perko
Look at these goalies!!!!
G.Hope GK 35 9 3 9 9 6 8 6 L 24 100 A A GK
B.Holder GK 26 11 6 2 10 6 1 4 R 20 100 A A GK
they shouldn't stink!! Heck, Hope was my goalie last year and went 23-3-1 with
a .769
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