Date: Sat Mar 22 07:43:31 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/19/AR2008031903859_3.html?hpid=topnews%3Cbr%3E&sid=ST2008032000989
Take
note of the impact of price controls in India and China on pages 2 and 3.
Also read an article in the Globe and Mail that said that RD Shell's investment
per barrel of oil and gas extracted has increase 4x and that Athabascan
development is running more like 20-25 a barrel, 1/3 of which is energy.
Combine this with inflation of the de rigeur currency in the oil market (the
dollar), and increasing global demand, and it becomes small wonder why prices
are what they are.
Date: Sat Mar 22 08:02:51 2008
Sender: William Johnson
Henry, no one wonders why they are so high. It's obvious that Bush and Cheney
started a war for oil so they could make a huge profit for their freinds. They
even deliberately caused the WTC to collapse by planting several strategically
placed bombs within the structures to allow perfect destruction with minimal
damage to surrounding areas. But, their 'perfect plan' was deterred when the
plane that was instructed to hit the white house and kill all the democratic
leaders was diverted.
Ah ha ha ha ha! Did I mention... Ah ha ha ha ha ha!
;)
Date: Sat Mar 22 09:32:48 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Matthew Simmons put the price of oil in perspective when he said it's 15 cents
a cup.
Anyone know of anything else that sells for 15 cents a cup, let alone something
that needs to pumped from thousands of feet underground, then shipped across
the world through unstable countries and vulnerable pipeline routes?
Date: Sat Mar 22 16:16:17 2008
Sender: Doc Barnes
Well, if a 20 oz. bottle of Coke from a vending machine is $1.25 then Coke is
selling at 50 cents a cup. Now if Coke could make an engine that runs off of
their soft drinks then they'd be richer....
Date: Sat Mar 22 18:28:11 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
I think Coke is doing pretty well as it is.
Date: Sat Mar 22 21:11:38 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
my piss is free.... which is about how stupid this Pro-Oil article is.
Date: Sat Mar 22 21:36:44 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
There wasn't a pro-oil article. The article was about coal, and the Simmons
quote was from a CNBC interview.
Brilliant analysis though. Maybe you should try to sell your piss. It's sterile
and some people like the taste. Or you could just help Moises Alou make sure
he's always got some on hand.
Date: Sun Mar 23 05:56:06 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
It's the same irrelevant, misleading, worn out, propganda filled misguided
arguement.
Look at how little profit per dollar it is,- poor oil companies, they will
probably get a noble peace prize presented by Mother Theresa herself.
Like I said before my grandfather builds high end furniture at about a 300%
markup.
What the hell does that mean? Nothing. Just like that point about oil.
Date: Sun Mar 23 06:20:50 2008
Sender: William Johnson
Well, one thing we don't have a shortage of is 'hot air'. Personally, I think
if someone hated the oil industry so much they would do everything under their
power to stop buying their products. Unfortunately, what I hear is 'it is too
inconvieniant for me to stop or even slow down using oil'.
Personally, I think it's time for some to put their money where their mouth
is.
I've tinkered with our Corrolla and got milage from 28 up to 34. What have
you done?
Date: Sun Mar 23 10:56:35 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Your grandpa is an evil capitalist is what that means. Price gouger. Even more
evil than the oil companies if you can believe it.
I think he might be Satan.
Date: Sun Mar 23 13:10:36 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
"I've tinkered with our Corrolla and got milage from 28 up to 34. What have you
done?"
- sold the Jeep, bought a Corsica.
- Work from home on Fridays and most Mondays if I can.
Who would have thought in only 8 years with Bush in office, driving would be
come a luxury only the rich could afford?
Date: Sun Mar 23 13:14:16 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
oh yeah, and I'll support anyone who runs for office (even if it's post master
or local sherriff) if they have no ties to the oil industry. (sorry most GOP)
doesn't that stand for?
Grand
Ole
Petroleum
Date: Sun Mar 23 13:28:35 2008
Sender: William Johnson
Do you really want us to list the multitude of democrats that have similar
vested interests in the oil industry? Today's probably not the best day to use
the 'holier than thou' stance.
Date: Sun Mar 23 15:37:26 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Like green champion Al Gore?
Date: Tue Mar 25 13:22:20 2008
Sender: Just Oz
printer ink is much more expensive per gallon.
As for the oil prices, demand is higher and supply is steady or down due to
South American dictators and war in the Mid East.
The demand is big in China and India and is the main driving factor.
Date: Tue Mar 25 14:43:29 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Does printer ink contain petrochemicals?
Date: Tue Mar 25 15:46:16 2008
Sender: Joshua MacOscar
I don't care what the reasons are. We have the right to live wherever we want
and commute as much as we want and have gas prices be at an acceptable level.
It is what Rambo fought for.
Date: Tue Mar 25 20:12:00 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
William...
we already discussed that once before it was like 73% oil companies support
went GOP. I don't feel like looking it up but it was somewhere in the 70's.
Oil prices aren't being driven up by anything. Oil companies don't have to
raise price at all and would still be profitable. Gas could be 1.80 per gallon
and oil Companies would still be turning profit, it just wouldn't be in the
100's of billions per year.
When we look back on this years from now we will see how the oil industry
created this recession and set the American economy back years. Politicians
tied to big oil will be justifiably villafied, and I'm sure it will be some
sort of economics lesson on when the free enterprise system breaks down.
Date: Wed Mar 26 06:05:24 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Oil prices are absolutely being driven up by something: supply and demand.
Boone Pickens (who is no longer in the oil business, he's selling clean energy
solutions now) was on CNBC yesterday and said that the supply side of the
equation is basically fixed at about 85M bpd; there's very little that
suppliers can do to increase supply in a way that is economically intelligent.
Even the ways that are feasible are expensive, much more expensive than past
exploration (a lot more deep-sea drilling, deep-land drilling, oil sands,
etc.).
So all of the change is going to be on the demand side, and until recently
demand was up in the United States and sharply up in Asia and Brazil. Now it's
slackened somewhat in the US (though part of that is cyclical, Q1 is always
lowest), but still strong in the other two major growth markets. And just as
one might expect, the price of oil has gone down from 110 a couple weeks ago,
to 100. Pickens said he expects it to take about another 5 dollar haircut
before moving up again and in 6-9 months we'll probably think 100 was cheap.
What would happen if the price of gas were artificially set at 1.80 (never mind
that you'd have to fix the world price of oil (basically set by auction) in
order to do this), what would happen? Demand would rise. But we don't have the
supply to meet that demand, because we're barely meeting demand with RBOB at
2.40-2.50 (as high as 2.75 not long ago; a price also set by auction). Uh oh.
Isn't higher energy prices what the liberals wanted? You know, so it would
force us to use less of it and other energy sources, similar to the punitive
taxation that is prevalent in Europe in this regard. Green liberals have talked
about this for years. Now that they've got it, they're railing against it?
Typical.
Hillary is either clueless or thinks we are re: the oil business, what with all
the promises of 60 dollar oil. Didn't Democrats running for Congress promise to
lower gas prices? Where the hell did that promise go?
And as for her plan to take profits from oil companies, there are a lot of
other countries that would like to have their business I'm sure.
FYI, Treasury Secretary Paulson reiterated that Medicare, absent changes in the
system and/or in funding, will go bankrupt in 2019. Social security in 2044.
Same numbers as last year. I think how that gets handled will have a greater
impact on the economy than the price of a commodity.
Date: Wed Mar 26 07:05:58 2008
Sender: William Johnson
" we already discussed that once before it was like 73% oil companies support
went GOP. "
Ok, let's go on the assumption your made up numbers are correct... that means
27% of all democrats are in full support of the war-for-oil. That's nearly ONE
THIRD (if I did my math correct) of the evil supporters of this war-for-oil are
democrats. Quit whining that this is a GOP caused and supported problem!
Date: Wed Mar 26 08:22:41 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
Show me these "demand" numbers?
This is from Bloomberg today-
``Gasoline is providing a price prop to crude oil,'' said Jim Ritterbusch,
president of Galena, Illinois-based energy consulting firm Ritterbusch &
Associates. ``The strength in gasoline is all about refiners cutting runs.''
It's artificial they create their own Supply/demand- ie (bullshit) They aren't
"running out of oil".
here is your price chart:
break even smallprofit moderate large ludicrious
Oil Company X
Date: Wed Mar 26 09:33:32 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
Notice the charts at the right. If you click on World Oil Balance Charts and
Table, you can get probably more info than you want. The World Oil Demand and
World Oil Supply charts are sufficient for the big picture, but there's a ton
more available.
If you match up the supply/demand numbers this is what you get for every
quarter since 1Q 06.
1Q 06 D85.6, S85.4
2Q D83.6, S85.1
3Q D84.6, S85.7
4Q D85.9, S85.4
1Q 07 D86.0, S85.6
2Q D84.9, S85.2
3Q D85.5, S85.2
4Q D86.9, S86.5
Proj.
1Q 08 D88.0
2Q D86.4
3Q D87.2
4Q D88.6
By year
2004 D82.5, S83.4
2005 D83.9, S84.6
2006 D84.9, S85.4
2007 D85.8, S85.6
2008 D87.5
The last time supply was able to meet demand was mid 2006.
Demand projections for 2Q 2008 are almost as high as 4Q 07 and 2Q is usually
the weakest quarter for demand. 1Q 2008 demand is on track to be at an all-time
high.
Supply has been flat at about 85M bpd from beginning to 2006 to now, with an
increase of of about 1.3M bpd in 4Q 2007 that accounts for nearly all of the
increase since 2005. That mainly is accounted for by increased exports from
OPEC countries and, IMO, is less sustainable because many of those countries
are using more of their own oil. My take on that is that in an attempt to meet
the demand spike this quarter, they've sold more of the oil they might have
otherwise used themselves, anticipating that they won't need to in 2Q when
demand usually slackens, and Chinese demand may slacken with the Olympic Games
in Beijing coming up. But even that increase in supply in 4Q 07 was
insufficient to meet demand, and indications are that 1Q 08 will not either,
with crude oil inventories flat despite record high prices.
And absolutely none of this has covered the increase in the investment needed
to recover oil.
----
This is from Bloomberg today-
``Gasoline is providing a price prop to crude oil,'' said Jim Ritterbusch,
president of Galena, Illinois-based energy consulting firm Ritterbusch &
Associates. ``The strength in gasoline is all about refiners cutting runs.''
----
*Um...this is maybe partly right. The refiners have been getting killed lately
because of a few things; high oil prices that prevent them from pushing costs
on down the chain without raising prices more than they are. And this is where
Ritterbusch might be right, because there is the fear that if all costs are
passed on that the consumer that it would significantly hurt domestic demand,
which is what the refiners are concerned about moreso than global demand, which
is what drives crude prices. The final thing that drives crude prices is the
strength of the US dollar, the inflation of which relative to the euro is
another factor. Brent crude is only at 87, so if you want to blame someone,
blame the Fed for that difference.
Natural gas's price runup has hurt them a lot more, since natural gas is
required to refine. That's another cost they're not able to pass on, lowering
refining margins (the crack spread). All your companies that are refiners first
are getting hammered -- Valero, Tesoro, etc. Even after one-time costs
associated with unanticipated maintenance, Valero's profits were still below
the Street's expectations, which were in turn already downward estimates. If
that's the case, it makes sense for refiners to refine less, in addition to
Valero's problems that have limited its ability to refine up to its capacity
has hurt it further. Valero's current PE ratio is an insanely low 5 and change,
but their forward PE is double that because their earnings are forecast to be
lower. That doesn't sound like a gravy train for the refiners to me.
OK now that I've addressed that, I'll ask my question again. What happened to
the lower oil prices that the Democrats running for Congress promised? Why
haven't they been reminded of that by the media if not daily, weekly?
Date: Wed Mar 26 13:11:37 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
That is the equivalent of airlines overbooking flights.
Why would they change supply, they have been raping us for the past 3 years-
and demand has barely moved, thanks for showing that.
Supply isn't some fixed benchmark. Refinaries aren't pressed at 100%
production.
So lets quit pretending.
Date: Wed Mar 26 14:27:59 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Why wouldn't they with as high as the prices are? Sure the price would go down
a little bit, but they would make more money in the end if they just raised
supply enough to meet or slighly exceed demand as was the case in 2006.
Demand has definitely not barely moved.
Refining capacity is definitely not at 100% and I already explained why that
is. I guess you think refiners should kill themselves to meet demand even at
the cost of their own profit margin.
Global demand hasn't been met in like 6 quarters. Real good chance it won't be
this quarter. If you don't get that, I'm not sure what more I can do to help
educate.
The fact is that if gas were at 1.80 like you propose, either we would suffer
shortages because demand could not be met, or we would be robbing from the
future by ramping up supply to a level that would be sustained for a much
shorter period. Neither are particularly desirable.
There is all kinds of data and prose out there related to oil, so I'll direct
you to find it via google. It is clear to me that no matter what is said you
will complain about it, blame the oil companies, claim it's a conspiracy, etc.
So you can find those sites and argue with them.
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