Date: Fri Mar 14 11:40:59 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
I
was waiting to see some evidence of the primary fight hurting the Democrats
before I believed it, but here it is.
Here's a chance for both sides to make claims about Iraq:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/13/AR2008031303793.html?hpid=moreheadlines
When
you read this article, are you more focused on the idea that the security
situation has improved with the surge, or that there has been little political
process? Sort of a nice litmus test on personal bias.
Date: Fri Mar 14 11:50:41 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
hmmm, I like Patraeus, he seems like an honest straight forward guy.
He's obviously not happy.. and the info on Sadr is interesting.
I'm more interested in how the conservatives on this board will try to spin
his comments into "everythings going great, were making huge progress etc.."
Date: Fri Mar 14 12:09:37 2008
Sender: Dusty Reed
I don't understand the logic that war is ever going great. War sucks, that is
plain and simple. People die, who didn't need to die. RIP Juan Garza.
Date: Sat Mar 15 01:45:49 2008
Sender: Just Oz
As far as the electoral college goes, I think that you are right that the Dem
infighting is hurting them (yeah!).
I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney as the eventual VP for McCain. This
would soldify the western states further for McCain (Colorado, Nevada, etc that
are listed as leaners) as well as put Michigan fully in play (given Romney's
favorite son status).
I admit that I'm hoping that Hillary will backstab her way to the nomination on
the Dem side (still) resulting in the following:
1) Depressed Democratic turn out
2) Enhanced, foaming at the mouth turn our on the right
3) Strong turnout by independent males who would rather be skinned alive than
have Hillary as President.
Two months ago, I felt like the Presidential election was the Dems to lose.
They have.
At this point, I feel like McCain can win this with a slightly higher margin
than Bush. Basically, a similar electoral map as Bush, but add Pennsylvania,
Michigan, and New Hampshire to McCain's totals.
Date: Sat Mar 15 02:28:08 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
I suspect you may be right.
Although I was looking forward to a good health care plan and Iraq pullout,
there are plenty of good aspects of a McCain presidency I could look forward
to. Fiscal responsibility would be huge for the economy right now, even if he
and I disagree on what to cut.
Date: Sat Mar 15 11:18:51 2008
Sender: Christopher E Smith
Bring on the personal attacks...
I flipped sides on this one, and am strongly supporting Obama!
And I'm dead serious.
Date: Sat Mar 15 11:48:17 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
The right was claiming they were going to win Congress and the Senate too.....
Don't bet on it. Once the debates start McCain is going to be in so deep
trying to defend the past 8 years he won't be able to do it.
I imagine by end of summer we will be in a full recession, gas will be $4.00
a gallon, and we will still be spinning our wheels in Iraq.
Date: Sat Mar 15 14:45:51 2008
Sender: Just Oz
AJ ... no one on the right is/was talking about regaining congress although a
Hillary nomination would make that possible, but still very unlikely.
The biggest issue is retirements and recruitments.
The GOP can't even get a big name challenger for the Senate in SD or Arkansas.
These are easy pick ups that are being fettered away.
Meanwhile, the GOP will almost certainly win LA and lose VA.
The bigger concerns are CO, NM, and AK which could all be losses (the first 2
are open seats and the last one is scandal plagued, big spending Stevens).
The good news in these three states for the GOP is that we have pretty good
challengers there.
Hopefully, we can see some more hammering on the Democrats who have been in
charge of congress over the past year and a half while the economy has tanked.
Last week they were busy raising people's taxes (only if you make more than
about $30K a year) and have still not extended the ability to track terrorist
calls into the United States.
Let's hope the GOP has the money to hit them for these issues.
Date: Sat Mar 15 14:54:19 2008
Sender: Bill Edwards
Very Good Points Oz. Another factor is that in the Senate the Reps. have many
more seats to defend than do the Dems. What they need to do in both the House
and Senate races is just to try to get good quality Conservative candidates
that will campaign on traditional conservative themes. That is basically how
the Dems re-gained the House in 06. They ran conservative candidates. I still
say say the bottom line is going to be the condition of the economy come
General Election time.
Date: Sat Mar 15 15:24:00 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
"Let's hope the GOP has the money to hit them for these issues."
They don't. Republican fundraising has been in shambles this year.
If the Democrats had rallied around a candidate early it could have been an
epic year for them. It's almost not even funny to watch them blow it, like
watching a Cubs playoff series.
Date: Sat Mar 15 15:31:08 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
As I am a betting man, I think now might be a good time to lay some money on
McCain in the general election. The odds are still favoring a Democratic
candidate, but the polls are already showing indication that the prolonged
nomination fight is eating away at the lead, especially in a few key states. I
didn't think it would hurt them, but the evidence seems to be that it is. And
there's at *least* five more weeks of it, and more likely several more months
of it.
McCain at 7-5 is a very, very good bet. Obama at 2-3 seems pretty bad to me.
Date: Sat Mar 15 16:32:35 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
AJ, my guess in November was gas at 3.50 (in SC) by summer. We're a little
lower than most of the country, so 4 sounds about right.
Date: Sat Mar 15 18:05:15 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
New Democratic gameplan:
Let Clinton "steal" the nomination, then have Obama split off and run as an
independent.
As long as they are careful to split the vote properly in core Democratic
states (to not let McCain sneak by on plurality), between the two of them they
block McCain from getting the majority of the votes.
That throws the election to the House by state delegation, which I just glanced
at and seems to favor the Democrats by a slight but firm margin. But one of
the two (three, if we are still including McCain) candidates would have to
somehow win 26 state delegations.
Things could get fascinating from there. The Senate would have to pick the VP
candidate from the two top vote-getters, probably McCain and Clinton's choices.
Clinton's choice wins.
If the impasse in the House lasts till Inauguration Day, the new VP is now the
acting president until it is resolved.
So takes some likely Clinton running mates in a "next President of the United
States" betting pool and you could be in for an incredible (though long-shot)
payoff.
Date: Sat Mar 15 20:01:17 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
polls don't matter right now.
any negativity from the Obama - Clinton debates will be gone in a minute when
it becomes McCain vs....
McCain could beat Clinton. On the big stage of a Presidential debate, she will
choke.
Obama, will be much tougher. He is a captivating speaker, who plays his
naivity as refreshing. Not to mention he is gifted at defending himself......
unlike the disasterously run Kerry campaign which tried to simply "ignore and
hope it goes away"
I'll restate my earlier position though. Liberals have already won. McCain is
so much better than Bush on almost every topic I believe in... things will only
get better.
Date: Tue Mar 25 14:03:25 2008
Sender: Bill Edwards
The Democrat Primary race gets murkier all the time. By all rights Obama
should have this thing sewed up as he leads in pledged delegates by over 100,
has won many more primaries, has the endorsements of most Democrat Party
leaders, and has the benifit of knowing that Senator Clinton's chances of
overtaking him in the pledged delegate count in the final 10 or so primary
contests are slim if not impossible.
So why do I keep geting this nawing feeling that Senator Clinton still could
win this thing? Finally the ansewr came to me...they are the CLINTONS!
Seriously...I think their stradegy is to go all out in Pennsylvania and try to
come away with a 10 to 15% point win. She is leading in the polls by double
digits now, BUT Obama is planning a 6 day bus barn storming tour of the state
in a few days. Then there are the Indiana and North Carolina primaries May 6.
I live in Indiana and can say that I would be shocked if Clinton does NOT carry
our state by a good margin. Senator Bayh is very popular in Indiana and is a
big supporter of her. And now the polls show her leading by a small margin in
North Carolina where many thought Obama had a slam dunk.
Another part of the Clinton plan is to go to all the "Super Delegates" with the
argument that the states she has won or is expected to win will have more
Electoral votes that the ones Obama won...in other words she will tout her
"electability" in the all important big states.
Both candidates are on the defense right now. Obama's problems with the Rev
Wright are well documented and now Senator Clinton is in hot water for
misrepresenting facts about her trip to Bosnia when Bill was President. She
said there was sniper fire when she landed...turned out to be an out and out
lie.....what else does one expect from the Clintons.
I think this thing is going to get dirtier and uglier in the weeks to come.
One needs only to look at our own DEL boards to see the passion that Obama
supporters have....which is great. But can you imagine what will happen if the
Clintons end up stealing this from him? His supporters will go berserk and
probably either stay home in the General Election or else vote for McCain.
I have been known to make my fair set of wagers in my day, but I wouldn't touch
this one with the proverbial 10 foot pole! :)
Date: Wed Mar 26 08:16:34 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
I think I'll vote for McCain before Hillary now.... unless he goes off the far
right deep end
Date: Wed Mar 26 13:30:07 2008
Sender: Bill Edwards
After hearing McCain's speech today I doubt now if I will be able to support
him in the General Election. He flat out pandered to the Liberals. "The United
States cannot lead by virtue of its power alone," McCain said in the speech,
noting that the United States did not single-handedly win the Cold War or other
conflicts in its history. Instead, he said, the country must lead by attracting
others to its cause, demonstrating the virtues of freedom and democracy,
defending the rules of an international civilized society and creating new
international institutions.
His speech reminded me of those that John Kerry gave back in 04. McCain is
still steamed about the 2000 primary and is hell bent on sticking it to the
Conservatives in the Party. I may end up going the Libertarian route if they
run a decent candidate.
Date: Wed Mar 26 14:05:13 2008
Sender: Just Oz
Come on Bill.
Even just on the issue of SCOTUS OR the war on terror, McCain is going to be
legions ahead of Hillary or O-bombing.
Toss in the fact that he has said he will veto every spending bill that
contains earmarks and you have an easy pick over either Dem.
Date: Wed Mar 26 14:30:02 2008
Sender: Bill Edwards
Yea I know Oz....I just have to accept the fact that McCain is going to be
McCain.
Date: Wed Mar 26 14:35:53 2008
Sender: Joshua MacOscar
The idea that those quotes from McCain are considered pandering to the liberals
makes me sad. I liked it when we wore the white hat.
Date: Thu Mar 27 00:00:26 2008
Sender: Christopher E Smith
We're now less than a month away from the Pennsylvania primary. I can see
Hillary easily winning that major state by 10-15%, just as she did here in
Ohio. Maybe Indy will go the same, but I look for Obama to return to his
winning ways in the majority of the other remaining states & territories,
including North Carolina (which could very well hinge on whether or not Edwards
endorses either one of them). Mathematically, she simply can't catch up with
him unless she wins every remaining contest by something like a 65-35 margin (I
believe - it may be a bit lower than that). I think at that point we'll see the
Dems step in and try to bring an end to this mess by declaring the candidate
with the most delegates and the popular vote (both should be Obama) their
nominee. Of course the Clintons are likely to file lawsuits if the DNC would do
something like that, as they will stop at absolutely nothing to win this thing.
But stay tuned in the near future for their tax returns to finally be released
(obviously they don't want people to see something on them), as well as her
earmarks, the donor list for the Clinton Library, and possibly other damaging
info from her first lady years, or maybe Whitewater, or the Peter Paul trial no
one is hearing anything about. If she finally starts to get hit with damaging
info, it should make it that much easier to end this race with Obama being the
winner.
As soon as that does happen, look for him to re-gain an enormous amount of
momentum as he goes up against McCain, with the key argument being the simple
fact that Obama did NOT vote for the war. I think McCain and Rep's are REALLY
wanting Hillary to be the Dem nominee, because defeating Obama will be much
tougher. It will be very interesting to see the VP choices, and how big of a
role they could potentially play in this election.
Date: Thu Mar 27 13:07:03 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
"The United States cannot lead by virtue of its power alone,"
What Bill considers a cowardly pandering statement I consider the smartest
thing to come out of a Republicans mouth in a while.
Date: Thu Mar 27 14:53:16 2008
Sender: Bill Edwards
I really think Obama is getting some very bad political advice from his
campaign staff and in particular David Axlerod, the head man. I have followed
Axlerod over the years and I have a great deal of respect for his ability to
run campaigns and get people elected. I would even rate him close to Karl
Rove. But having said that I just do not understand what is going on. Obama
takes a few days off from the campaign and then on his very first day back on
the trail he BRINGS UP the Rev. Wright issue and blames the media for playing
30 second sound bits over and over.
To compound matters, it has been reported today that Wright allowed very
anti-Israel remarks to be published in his church's bulletin on several
occasions last year. That on top of his (Wright's) very inflamatory
anti-Italian remarks. Axlerod, in my view, should advise his candidate to
COMPLETLY denounce Wright once and for all and announce that he is leaving his
church. This controversy is not going to go away. Voter sentiment against
Wright is just way too high for Obama not to act. Axlerod is not helping his
candidate right now.
Date: Thu Mar 27 20:05:40 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Sometimes advice is not followed by candidates. Maybe Axelrod has suggested it
but Obama refuses. I don't know, just saying it's a possibility.
Date: Thu Mar 27 22:50:58 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
Voter sentiment wasn't against Wright when Bill Clinton invited him to visit
the Whitehouse.
It's always interesting what meaningless tidbits people decide to turn into
news.
Date: Thu Mar 27 23:11:41 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
That's because the media was busy going Lewinsky on Clinton. Probably the least
objective coverage of a president in the history of American mass media.
Date: Thu Mar 27 23:27:57 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
The media has consistently covered the race as if it were closely contested
despite the fact that Obama has it wrapped up quite handily.
Huckabee was in Clinton's position and hounded every day about when he would
drop out.
Date: Fri Mar 28 05:44:20 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
Huckabee was never near Clinton's position. Hillary was the national
frontrunner in a 2 person race until about Feb.
Huckabee did well in a couple of early races he spent a lot of money on with a
muddled field, failed to win SC and that was pretty much it. Always a regional
candidate, and I think could have been a plant for the McCain camp. He could be
running for VP.
Most of the GOP races are winner-take-all, so Huckabee was never really in the
race.
As for Hillary, as it stands now she'd pick up about 25-35 in PA, which
according to RCP would leave her about 90-100 behind. She could pick up several
in Indiana, but would need to reverse the trend in North Carolina. She'd have
another 20 with FL and probably 100 in Michigan. Even if you gave her 25 in MI,
she'd be within 40 at that point. At that point, Clinton has a case to make to
the superdelegates.
If not for the very high number of superdelegates in the Democrat race (ironic
for a party named for democracy), it would be all but over. But if she can get
FL and MI to count in the minds of superdelegates (even better if she can
actually get them counted), she's still got a chance.
Date: Fri Mar 28 06:19:59 2008
Sender: William Johnson
" Voter sentiment wasn't against Wright when Bill Clinton invited him to visit
the Whitehouse. "
You mean Clinton invited the racist Wright to the white house and the
un-biased/left-leaning media didn't cover it? Wow, I can't imagine that
happening! I wonder if Wright shared some of his "ideals" with Slick Willey.
Date: Fri Mar 28 11:08:48 2008
Sender: Kyle Mayhugh Too
So if everything goes the most rosy scenario Clinton can paint (including
convincing an Obama-controlled credentialing committee to seat Florida and
Michigan), she's still 40 short and needs a fairly whopping majority of
superdelegates to overturn the pledged vote lead.
It is over. Sure, she has a microscopic chance, but the reason it has been
traditional for candidates to drop out early is that prolonged fights just
improve the other party's chances. Romney could have done what Clinton has
done, but instead he decided it was more important to advance his ideals by
making sure that McCain won easily.
Clinton is almost handing the presidency to McCain in exchange for a sliver of
a chance at the nomination.
Date: Fri Mar 28 11:13:24 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
racist-
Do you even know what that word means? I don't think so.
You can watch the sermon on Youtube you know.. then again, I'm sure your
happier with your "Michael Moorelike" out of context quotes.
PS- God damn America for Slavery.
are you for it?
Date: Fri Mar 28 14:09:46 2008
Sender: Henry Morgan
It would have done Romney no good. Again, with the Republican system as it is,
coming from behind is almost impossible, which is part of why the frontrunner
almost always wins.
After Feb 5, McCain had triple the delegates of Romney or Huckabee. Nowhere
near the Clinton-Obama score.
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