Date: Fri Jul 4 22:07:46 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
Looking at my roster in EPBL going into this season, you would think this guy
is my best hitter:
D.Sanchez 3B 31 7 10 2 9 7 5 4 1 21 L L A A
look at his career-
Team Ag AB H RBI HR BB SO SB Avg
NYN 30 346 8 33 17 64 79 1 .225
KC 29 297 73 39 10 39 57 1 .246
A 29 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 .750
TB 28 48 10 3 1 6 14 0 .208
TB 27 109 26 14 5 10 22 0 .239
TB 26 351 80 52 16 69 69 6 .228
Can this guy finally have a good year at age 31... or is he still a bum?
Date: Sat Jul 5 02:56:12 2008
Sender: Just Oz
AJ ... I tend to compare last season's camp numbers to this years camp numbers
and look for the trend.
This is not full proof (Beck on my team seems to ignore what he did in camp),
but it gives some cues.
Date: Sun Jul 6 11:34:11 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
thats smart... didn't save the camp numbers.
though 2nd best on the team. It will be interesting.
His attributes look like an MVP candidate. But coming off a .225 year and at
age 31 who knows?
Date: Sun Jul 6 14:45:37 2008
Sender: Brian Dust
While I get enthusiastic when I see a player has put up good numbers during
Spring Training, I've never found any predictive value in terms of how that
player will fare during the regular season.
Date: Tue Jul 8 20:26:22 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
2 of 17, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts...
I was told intagibles could make a low 9 and 8 etc,....
for this guy to be as bad as he appears his intangibles would have to be 20% or
more.
How can a 10 DS, 9 Contact.... not have a good OB%?
Date: Tue Jul 8 21:24:07 2008
Sender: Bruce Bond
To be fair, his career OBP is .340. Last season's EPBL OBP was .311, and the
highest team OBP was .343.
My understanding is that high power will also give you a lower average. Pair
his high power with low intangibles and you get a .230 average, a lot of
strikeouts, and a ton of walks (over a full season he should approach 100
walks).
Date: Wed Jul 9 01:37:38 2008
Sender: Tomasz Radko
Sample size. In RL Francouer after his first 46 AB had OPS 1.326.
Wait at least 25 games. 100 AB is the lowest number having any meaning.
Date: Wed Jul 9 07:18:34 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
Bruce....
I've heard the same about high power. Though I don't have any idea why Andy
would incorporate that, as there is no realistic basis to place that off of.
There are plenty of power hitters with a good batting average.
Date: Wed Jul 9 07:19:38 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
the other thing that bugs me is-
there is a direct correlation to walks and strikeouts. Players who walk more
strikeout less. In DEL, they are totally unrelated.
Date: Wed Jul 9 08:58:17 2008
Sender: James Mathis
There is no correlation between Ks and BBs IRL. That is a fallacy.
Date: Wed Jul 9 08:59:59 2008
Sender: James Mathis
Let me correct that, there may be a weak correlation, but there are plenty of
players who are high K / low BB, plenty of players who are high BB / low K.
Date: Wed Jul 9 09:13:32 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
it's a more valid correlation then
HR = Strikeouts.
3 of the top 10 strike outers in baseball have less than 6 HR's right not.
Plenty of players have made the majors because they had only power... so they
did strike out a lot. (Many 80-90's Detroit Tigers)
(7 contact 9 power guys)
Last season Pujols hit 49 HR's and struck out 50x, Bonds, Sheffield, Frank
Thomas... were all the same way.
Contact is contact.
Maybe the overall point is our players just strikeout too much. period.
Date: Thu Jul 10 11:21:30 2008
Sender: James Mathis
HR hitters tend to strike out more.
High K hitters don't necessarily tend to hit more HRs.
Those are two different correlative effects.
Date: Thu Jul 10 12:12:13 2008
Sender: Mark Z
AJ, what support do you have for your "players who walk more, strikeout less"
assertion?
I remember the last time you posted on this, when it was shown that hardly any
MLB hitters have even a 1:1 BB:K ratio.
Date: Thu Jul 10 13:10:14 2008
Sender: Michael Shiau
Last season Pujols hit 49 HR's and struck out 50x, Bonds, Sheffield, Frank
Thomas... were all the same way. Contact is contact.
The thing is they did make contact none of them are career stiffs... Your guy
is batting .220 so his contact is probably a 7 or 6 so the sim is obviously
modelling him after Richie Sexson.
Date: Thu Jul 10 22:32:35 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
yeah... it would seem he should be a 7 contact.
But he is a 9. He is also a 10 DS. He is also Left handed.
Intangibles are supposed to be only a "slight" variation. 10% maybe.
His OB% should be very high. It isn't. There is no acceptable, logical reason
he wouldn't be better.
Date: Fri Jul 11 07:18:52 2008
Sender: Michael Shiau
To my knowledge discipline just means taking more pitches. Taking more pitches
usually leads to walks but if you wait for the right pitch then swing and miss
you strike out a bunch too. 10% intangible probably applies to actual output
which probably explains the .330 OBA vs .300 and not a 10 discipline to 9
disciple per se. He's not even a good power hitter either with max HRs being
17 so I doubt his power is an issue.
Date: Fri Jul 11 09:49:27 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
He is bizzare. This is probably my 40th baseball season, and he is hands down
the most dissapointing player I've had.
It's very early in EPBL and he was an 8 contact last year, and a 9 now... so he
could turn around.
I have noticed before certain types of hitters perform better under different
circumstances. Primarily the Hit and Run setting can influence batting average
and power. The only thing, I can think of at all would be players with a high
DS like the Hit and Run and perform better.
I realize that doesn't make a ton of sense, but not everything in the SIM
always does.
I have plenty of guys who are 8 contact, less speed than Sanchez and they
average .230-.240 or so. (Higher than Sanchez's .225 or whatever)
Date: Fri Jul 11 15:21:04 2008
Sender: Darren Reifler
While your guy is more extreme, I have a similar guy on my bench in IMLB
Oakland. Carbia, whose career suckiness lags far behind his shown abilities.
668 S.Carbia IF 28 8 7 2 9 4 9 4 1 23 R R A A
OAK 27 122 29 15 3 20 24 0 160 106 2 .238
OAK 26 278 56 28 6 20 45 2 182 119 3 .201
Brad 25 108 25 8 2 18 17 0 129 77 3 .231
508 110 51 11 58 86 2 471 302 8 0.217
I wouldn't expect him to be my top hitter, especially since that team is loaded
with top hitters, but over 500 career at-bats he hasn't even approached
anything reasonable. I have noticed that the walk rates don't tend to change
much even if the player sucks.
I have been curious as to what would happen if he were able to play every day,
but not even close to curious enough to actually try it. For the record, he is
having a good season in limited action and had a spectacular spring.
Unfortunately for him, the guy that plays his position is hitting .367.
Date: Fri Jul 11 15:26:06 2008
Sender: Darren Reifler
For the record, I do tend to think he is, so far in his career, a statistical
anomaly. He may never be an MVP, but over another 1000 ABs his numbers would
probably come closer to what his abilities show....but as I said, I don't
normally have the guts or patience to test that logic ;)
Date: Tue Jul 15 09:21:22 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
It's early in the season, but Sanchez is picking up right where he left off..
Name AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB SBA PA PM E Avg
Sanchez 44 8 1 0 2 4 8 12 0 0 36 22 1 .182
I should just keep my mouth shut and unload him to some newb
who will only look at his attributes.
Date: Tue Jul 15 09:59:29 2008
Sender: Kendell R Jillson
He reminds me a lot of this guy I had in MEL: (he's currently on the Mariners)
1265 C.Griffis 1B 36 6 10 1 9 6 5 2 1 23 R R
http://www.dolphinsim.com/manager/mel/hist50.htm#1265
Career .244 avg, .339 obp, 131 hrs in 3716 AB. (and he had at least 7 power
when I had him with the Red Sox).
I think I got a high 3rd round pick (or a low 2nd rounder) and a high school
age prospect for him. No regrets on that deal, although i would have loved to
have snuckered some newbie into giving up a 1st.
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