Date: Sat Apr 19 20:16:29 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
I paid 4.86 for this clown
Sanchez 3B 30 6 10 2 8 7 5 4 1 21 L L A A
and picked this guy up for 1.87
Pineiro IF 31 3 10 3 6 9 3 6 1 20 L L C C
I've played both of them at 3B, look at their sorry ass performances:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB SBA PA PM E Avg
Sanchez 142 30 5 0 4 7 31 30 0 1 145 91 3 0.211
Pineiro 142 30 4 0 8 16 27 33 0 0 162 105 3 0.211
So much for AA actually meaning something with hitters-
Date: Mon Apr 21 11:00:07 2008
Sender: James Mathis
Small sample size. And the A A is putting up a 352 OBP if my math is right.
That's nothing to sneeze at. If anything, the C C guy is overperforming,
rather than the A A guy underperforming.
Date: Mon Apr 21 13:33:07 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
that small sample size is 1/3rd a season, thats arguement gets week after
watching 10 contact guys hit .220 and my 4 contact guy hit .220 too-
the only consistent thing on batters in DEL is speed and discipline. They
always get their walks, they always get their steals.... batting avg, you could
roll a dice.
Date: Mon Apr 21 14:11:10 2008
Sender: Darren Reifler
NYA 581 0.267
Flor 595 0.267
Flor 604 0.298
Flor 613 0.268
ChiN 490 0.243
ChiN 474 0.293
ChiN 492 0.280
ChiN 568 0.287
Cubs 523 0.277
Cubs 576 0.266
Cubs 545 0.262
Cubs 569 0.248
Career 0.271
Cle 484 0.308
Cle 550 0.309
Cle 561 0.328
Cle 571 0.294
Cle 522 0.333
Cle 439 0.351
Bos 529 0.306
Bos 436 0.349
Bos 569 0.325
Bos 568 0.308
Bos 554 0.292
Bos 449 0.321
Bos 483 0.296
Career 0.313
The first one is a highly paid veteran from my MEL team and the second is Manny
Ramirez. I won't bother to do a statistical regression on it, but the only
thing that gives away the second as MLB is that the career average is much
higher. The variation from year to year is not any more in DEL than in the
real life case however.
Manny has been as high as .351 and as low as .292 with most years being around
.300-.310.
My guy Sanchez has a high of .298 and a low of .243 with 5 of his 12 years he
hit in the .260s.
Each guy is probably more consistent than the average guy in either league, but
the more you search the more evidence you will find that batting average just
isn't any more consistent year to year in real life than in DEL. Keep in mind
that is over an entire season. I didn't tell you that Sanchez was hitting a
lot worse at the all star break last year.
Another place to look for this is with pitching. Sabermetricians tend to
ignore opponent batting average because of the "random" variations (another way
of saying too much noise in the data). Home runs, walks and strikeouts tend to
be much more consistent year to year than batting average.
None of that makes high contact any less useful as a skill, but the resulting
batting average should have a certain amount of variation around a certain
level. Should I add that Ortiz has yet to break the .200 mark on the year?
Date: Mon Apr 21 14:31:12 2008
Sender: AJ Perko
I've seen Andy say look a .200 season and .300 season is a .250 hitter, it's
only 50 points of variation!
this is a guy on my team
NYN .203
NYN .262
TB .297
TB .239
I guess I don't consider .297 and .203 to be a normal variation-
your either a .297 hitter- who is pretty good
or a .203 hitter which sucks. It doesn't switch off every other season.
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