Date: Sun Mar 16 15:54:16 2008
Sender: Brian Dust
Okay, I like how the Rnk is X X prior to a player being selected in the draft.
I noticed that changes to something like F F once he's in an organization,
while his attributes remain the same. Is that the extent of the 'fog' relating
to draft prospects, or do their attributes also change once the draft has
ended?
Date: Sun Mar 16 17:38:39 2008
Sender: Just Oz
After the draft ends, the prospects go through a training camp so you have
normal "training camp" kinds of changes.
Sometimes good, sometimes bad.
That's why I work in stats to my measure of the attributes.
The fog refers to the fact that the attributes can be off by a factor of 10 in
either direction which simulates guys with great tools who just can't make it
and so-so prospects who put together a good career through hustle.
Date: Sun Mar 16 23:04:16 2008
Sender: Brian Dust
How useful is the transition from X X as a draft prospect to the rank that
appears after a player's been drafted?
Emch was near the top of my board due to his 6.5:1 KK:BB ratio, but his X X to
F F (like all my other players thus far) journey has me concerned. I noticed
some draftees are now D D or better. Even F D would give me hope. How
important is this stage?
Date: Mon Mar 17 06:22:00 2008
Sender: Just Oz
The F F is a measure of his visible attributes.
I would say that his stats are a hint that he will be better.
The problem with him as a high pick is his Ar / Cn / Tl
You probably could have gotten him in fifth round or so instead of where you
did, but that's life.
Most people want 22 year olds to have a 5/5 or higher to be a top round pick.
It just takes time to see that.
Date: Mon Mar 17 06:22:56 2008
Sender: Bruce Bond
The grades are not useful at all. I've never seen a D A player, but somehow
there are a lot of A A players at the major league level. One of the best ways
to grade unknown players is contract value. The best is experience, but
obviously the draftees don't have a lot of that.
Also, the fog doesn't lift completely after camps. If you go to:
EPBL Archive>
At-Bat Database>
retrieve the raw data>
then sort Ability Database by "Current" and "post-camps" (for current players,
"draft list" for draftees) you can see fog levels. I would guess the
"mid-season" option is for after the draft has completed and a little more fog
has lifted.
On the post-camps option, player #18 is 22 years old but still has a fog of 25.
Look at stats more than abilities, but especially so when there is still fog.
An 18-year old will generally come into the league with 100 fog, a 23 year old
may have no fog when he comes into the league, and how fast it lifts is
different for different players.
Date: Mon Mar 17 17:24:30 2008
Sender: Brian Dust
Bruce,
Thank you for the instructions! I was unfamiliar with the at-bat database.
I may be in lots of trouble, as I figured every draft prospect had 100 Fog.
Sticking with Emch, since he's my player, he looks like this after he joined
Houston:
4775 K.Emch P 22r 7 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 15 R R 100 15 15 -- F F
But, and it's a big one:
4775 P 22 7 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 15 R 44
With only 44 fog, I appear to be headed for major disappointment!
Date: Mon Mar 17 18:38:19 2008
Sender: Tomasz Radko
But why did you draft so high 22y old pitcher with only 7 pts in pitching
skills?
Date: Mon Mar 17 20:56:52 2008
Sender: Brian Dust
Tomasz,
In part because it seems as though I completely misunderstood the Fog concept.
While Emch appears as 3 Ar and 4 Cn, I thought the Fog meant there was a great
deal of uncertainty as to the level of those attributes.
So, with the exception of Venook and Hudson, and perhaps a few others, most
pitchers in the draft who put up good stats had rather underwhelming
attributes. I thought the stats would be a clearer indication of talent, and
figured that while my guy may have a pitiful 3 Ar and 4 Cn at 22, there had to
be some underlying reason why his KK:BB ratio was so good.
Regards,
Brian
3303 E.Venook P 20r 5 4 0 3 2 1 6 7 14 L L 100 14 14 -- C C
-property of Arizona
7015 B.Hudson P 18r 7 1 0 2 4 1 9 3 10 S L 100 14 14 -- D C
-property of San Diego
Date: Tue Mar 18 05:59:31 2008
Sender: Tomasz Radko
Oh, now I see. I agree, Emch has great peripherial stats.
6.5 K/BB is amazing.
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